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A Dying Creed?

A Dying Creed?. The Demographic Contradictions of Liberal Capitalism. The Rise of Demography. Where does demography fit in to social theory (vs. economy, culture, politics)? Technology-Mortality mechanism in the past Values-Fertility mechanism in modernity? Demographic Transition Uneven

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A Dying Creed?

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  1. A Dying Creed? The Demographic Contradictions of Liberal Capitalism

  2. The Rise of Demography • Where does demography fit in to social theory (vs. economy, culture, politics)? • Technology-Mortality mechanism in the past • Values-Fertility mechanism in modernity? • Demographic Transition Uneven • Ethnic differentials have had political ramifications, but are declining • Ethnic Makeover Accepted. What about religious makeover? • Are religious populations more resistant to transition than secular?

  3. Demography and Politics? • Early Christianity, spread from some 40 converts in 30 A.D. to over 6 million adherents by 300 A.D. • Mormon church: 40 percent growth in past century, widening fertility gap • Evangelical Protestant growth in the 20th c. US: ¾ demographic. 'Red states' have 12-point TFR advantage over 'Blue' in 2004 election • Implications of the liberal-democratic-capitalist 'End of History' model

  4. Q1: Secularisation "As this book will demonstrate: 1. The publics of virtually all advanced industrial societies have been moving toward more secular orientations during the past fifty years. Nevertheless, 2. The world as a whole now has more people with traditional religious views than ever before-- and they constitute a growing proportion of the world's population." (Inglehart & Norris 2004) • Which will dominate: religious fertility or secularisation?

  5. "Conservative, religiously minded Americans are putting far more of their genes into the future than their liberal, secular counterparts…[heavily Mormon] Utah annually produces 90 children for every 1,000 women of child-bearing age. By comparison, Vermont -- the only state to send a socialist to Congress and the first to embrace gay unions -- produces only 49…Fertility correlates strongly with religious conviction" – Philip Longman, The Empty Cradle (2004)

  6. Conclusion: Secularisation • Variation in Patterns of Secularisation • Europe has secularised in terms of church attendance, but not in terms of religious feeling • In Europe, more religious (Catholic) countries are secularising faster, less religious (mainly Protestant) countries have flatlined at very low (5-10%) levels of church attendance • USA has not secularised

  7. Conclusion: Fertility • After marital status, church attendance and religiosity among the strongest predictors of individual fertility • Seems to be increasing its predictive power in secularising (Catholic) countries • In secular (Protestant) countries, church attendance insignificant, but religiosity significantly predicts fertility • Future Research: USA, Islamic world, demographic predictions, 2000-2050

  8. http://www.sneps.net/RD/religdem.html http://www.sneps.net/RD/religdem.html

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