From Impacts to Adaptation to TDM: Highlights from Two National Assessments

1. From Impacts to Adaptation to TDM: Highlights from Two National Assessments Dr. Quentin Chiotti Climate Change Programme Director and Senior Scientist qchiotti@pollutionprobe.org www.pollutionprobe.org ACT Canada TDM Summit

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3. MISSION STATEMENT Pollution Probe is a Canadian non-profit organization that: • Defines environmental problems through research • Promotes understanding through education • Presses for practical solutions through advocacy Pollution Probe is dedicated to achieving positive and tangible environmental change. 16th year for the Clean Air Commute ACT Canada TDM Summit

4. Presentation Outline • Responding to climate change • The case for adaptation • The impacts of climate change in Canada • From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate 2007 • Human Health in a Changing Climate: A Canadian Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Adaptive Capacity • Climate change and air quality: Lessons from Ontario ACT Canada TDM Summit

5. Responding to Climate Change Climate Change Temperature Precipitation Extreme Weather Events Sea Level Rise Mitigation (Emission Reduction) Adaptation Impacts and Effects Regions Unmanaged and Managed Ecosystems Sectors Vulnerable Groups Vulnerability Adaptive Capacity ACT Canada TDM Summit

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7. Linkages Between Climate Change and Air Pollution • Chemical/atmospheric interactions • Some air pollutants are GHGs • Aerosols known to off-set global warming • Actions that directly reduce energy use will lower emissions of GHGs and CACs • co-benefits • Some actions to reduce GHGs will lead to an increase in CACs and vice versa • Diesel and pollution controls • Some actions can reduce emissions and enhance adaptive capacity • Synergistic health effects from heat stress and air pollution ACT Canada TDM Summit

8. Global context – 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal” (WGI SPM) “Adaptation will be necessary to address impacts resulting from the warming which is already unavoidable” (WGII SPM) Even in regions with high incomes, some people, areas and activities can be particularly at risk from climate change (Synthesis Report) ACT Canada TDM Summit

9. What is adaptation to climate change? Adaptation involves making adjustments in our decisions, activities and thinking because of observed or expected changes in climate- to moderate harm (reduce negative impacts) or take advantage of new opportunities. ACT Canada TDM Summit

10. Vulnerability • Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including variability and extremes. ACT Canada TDM Summit

11. Adaptive Capacity • The ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences ACT Canada TDM Summit

12. Impacts and Adaptation: Two National Assessment Reports ccadaptation@hc-sc.gc.ca E-Mail: info@hc-sc.gc.ca http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/index_e.php

13. Linking climate change to health – Canadian efforts Human Health in a Changing Climate: A Canadian Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Adaptive Capacity Table of Contents Introduction: Health in a Changing Climate Assessment Methods Impacts of Climate Change on Water, Food, Vector and Rodent-borne Diseases in Canada Air Quality, Climate and Health Canadian Vulnerabilities to Natural Hazards and Extreme Weather Health Impacts of Climate Change in Quebec Health Impacts of Climate Change in Canada’s North Vulnerabilities, Adaptation and Adaptive Capacity in Canada

14. The report reflects the advances made in understanding climate change impacts and adaptation in Canada. • It highlights key issues facing each region of the country (Northern Canada, Atlantic Canada, Quebec, Ontario, Prairies and BC) in a policy-relevant manner. • It provides a concise, credible up-to-date source of information that will inform adaptation decision-making. • There are three main products: Full Scientific Report Synthesis Highlights ACT Canada TDM Summit

15. Key Findings • The results from the assessment provide sound scientific evidence that Canada’s climate is changing and that the impacts from of a changing climate are already evident in every region of the country. • It is anticipated that climate change will exacerbate many current climate risks, while presenting new risks and opportunities, especially for communities, infrastructure and ecosystems. • While Canada has a relatively high capacity to adapt, this capacity is unevenly distributed between and within regions and populations. ACT Canada TDM Summit

16. The impacts of changing climate are already evident in every region of Canada Permafrost degradation Reduced ice cover Reduced snow cover Increased coastal erosion Changing animal distributions Increased coastal erosion Reduced glacier cover Earlier onset of spring Lower lake and river levels Increased plant productivity ACT Canada TDM Summit

17. Lead authors: Quentin Chiotti (Pollution Probe) Beth Lavender (Natural Resources Canada) Contributing authors: Ken Abraham (Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources) John Casselman (Queen’s University) Steve Colombo (Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources) Philippe Crabbé (University of Ottawa) Bill Crins (Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources) Rob Davis (Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources) Al Douglas (MIRARCO) Paul A. Gray (Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources) Lawrence Ignace (Environment Canada) Chris Lemieux (University of Waterloo) Rob McAlpine (Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources) Martyn Obbard (Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources) Charles O'Hara (Ontario Ministry of Transportation) Jacqueline Richard (MIRARCO) Carrie Sadowski (Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources) Daniel Scott (University of Waterloo) Mark Taylor (AMEC Earth and Environmental) Ellen Wall (University of Guelph) ACT Canada TDM Summit

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19. Climate change will exacerbate many current climate risks, and present new risks and opportunities, with significant implications for communities, infrastructure and ecosystems. Exacerbate current climate risks • Reduced water quality & quantity • Increasing demand for water • Increased frequency and magnitude of extreme events • Increased heat waves • Increased smog episodes • Increased risk of diseases and pests • Increased risk of forest fires New risks and opportunities • New diseases and pests • New challenges to management of protected areas • New opportunities for more profitable crops and tree species ACT Canada TDM Summit

20. Annual Change: Mean Temperature and Precipitation ACT Canada TDM Summit

21. Health Effects Estimates • OMA (2005) study • estimated 5,829 premature deaths annually – rising to 10,061 by 2026 • 16,807 hospital admissions • 59,696 emergency room visits • 29,292,100 minor illness days • Health Canada & Environment Canada (2005) study • 2,900 premature deaths in 4 Ontario cities • Toronto Public Health (2004) study • 1,700 premature deaths and 6,000 hospital admissions annually ACT Canada TDM Summit

22. Heat waves in Canadian cities will become more frequent Number of hot days above 30C Background ambient levels of O3 could increase by 40 ppm Emission increase by 20% by 2050 and 32% by 2080. The annual total number of poor O3 days would increase 4-11 and 10-20 respectively. Air pollution mortality will increase by 20-25% and 30-40% by 2050 and 2080 Number of heat-related deaths will double and triple ACT Canada TDM Summit

23. MORE INFORMATION • Synthesis and Highlights available on-line: http://adaptation2007.nrcan.gc.ca • Download pdfs • Read author bios • Order copies of the report • Full report released on March 7th 2008 • Questions? Contact NRCan at: adaptation@nrcan.gc.ca ACT Canada TDM Summit