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TFEIP projections expert panel

TFEIP projections expert panel. 5 th Meeting Vienna 12 th May 2009. Projections expert panel meeting agenda. 09:40 Welcome, meeting objectives and adoption of agenda 09:50 Update on the NECD and Gothenburg Protocol (Eduard Dame) 10:10 Ireland projections presentation (Stephan Leinert)

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TFEIP projections expert panel

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  1. TFEIP projections expert panel 5th Meeting Vienna 12th May 2009

  2. Projections expert panel meeting agenda • 09:40 Welcome, meeting objectives and adoption of agenda • 09:50 Update on the NECD and Gothenburg Protocol (Eduard Dame) • 10:10 Ireland projections presentation (Stephan Leinert) • 10:35 Slovak projections presentation (Stanislava Nebusova) • 11:00 Coffee • 11:30 Feedback on recent meetings • 12:00 Guidebook maintenance discussion • 12:20 Discussion (including providing projections data, the web portal, 2009 workplan and AOB) • 12:30 Meeting finishes

  3. Update on the NECD and Gothenburg Protocol (Eduard Dame) • Revision NEC Directive will not be proposed by current College of Commissioners • WGSR 20 – 23 April 2009 invited relevant TF’s and EP’s to continue working on the issue of long term objectives • Revision of Gothenburg Protocol (countries sending baselines to CIAM before end May) • Work for PRIMES 2009 is ongoing and it can be used for NECD revision and for Gothenburg Protocol (gap filling in national projections or replace national projections for EU-27)

  4. Emission projections for NEC Gases –Ireland’s approach (Stephan Leinert) • Advantages: • Consistency with inventories/historic data • Consistency with national energy forecast • Consistency with GHG projections • Disadvantages: • Requires detailed activity data statistics (e.g. agriculture) • Transport projection is not straight forward • Fuel tourism causes conflict between consistency with energy forecast for fuel and realistic car population/mileage • Energy forecast currently at aggregated level (no breakdown within fuel types yet)

  5. Slovak emission projections related to NEC Directive (Stanislava Nebusová) • Summary: • National emission ceiling for year 2010 are feasible to achieve • Proposed national emission ceiling for year 2020 is not easily to fulfil without additional PAMs • Model MESSAGE is very good model for projections in energy sector • Next steps: • Implement other models for non energy sectors • Transport • Agriculture • LULUCF • Waste

  6. Feedback from other meetings NIAM/APRIL/UCL meeting. ‘Reducing the environmental impacts of transport with behavioural change’ 8-9 January 2009, London www.niam.scarp.se TFIAM/ACCENT workshop on non-binding aspirational scenarios for 2050. 5-6th March 2009, Utrecht http://iiasa.ac.at/rains/meetings/Aspiration2050/Presentations.html NIAM Meeting (in conjunction with EC4MACS project) 23-24 April 2009, IIASA www.niam.scarp.se

  7. Guidebook discussion Few minor issues were discussed: • 1. Definitions • 2. Cost-effectiveness • 3. Role of uncertainties and sensitivities

  8. AOB items • Workplan for 2009 • Finalise Guidebook Chapter • Decide maintenance/improvement plan • Improve Web Page • Links to other panels (TFIAM, NIAM, etc.) • Decide one aspect per year to focus on (discuss, share documentation, work on it…)

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