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National Food and Agricultural Policy Project Arizona State University AFBF 88th Annual Convention January 6, 2007

National Food and Agricultural Policy Project Arizona State University AFBF 88th Annual Convention January 6, 2007 NFAPP Mission NFAPP is a charged with the responsibility of providing timely policy and market analysis on the fruit and vegetable sector to Congress and the industry.

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National Food and Agricultural Policy Project Arizona State University AFBF 88th Annual Convention January 6, 2007

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  1. National Food and Agricultural Policy Project Arizona State University AFBF 88th Annual Convention January 6, 2007

  2. NFAPP Mission NFAPP is a charged with the responsibility of providing timely policy and market analysis on the fruit and vegetable sector to Congress and the industry. http://nfapp.poly.asu.edu/

  3. NFAPP Activities • 10-year Baselines • Policy Analyses • Congressional Research Requests • Review Sessions • Policy Papers • Quarterly Newsletter

  4. Almonds Apples Cherries Grapes Oranges Peaches Strawberries Fruit and Nut Models

  5. Vegetable and Melon Models • Lettuce • Mushrooms • Onions • Potatoes • Sweet Corn - Proc. • Tomatoes (Fresh, Proc.) • Watermelon • Bell Pepper • Broccoli • Cantaloupe • Carrots • Cauliflower • Celery • Honey Dew

  6. 2005 U.S. Agricultural Cash ReceiptsTotal = $238.9 Billion

  7. NFAPP Fruit and Nut Cash Receipts 2005

  8. Fruit Value Forecast • U. S total Value for Fruits and Nuts is expected to grow 17% from 2006 to 2015 to reach 17.8 billion dollars

  9. Fruit Value Forecast

  10. NFAPP Vegetable and Melon Cash Receipts 2005

  11. Vegetable Value Forecast • U.S. Vegetable cash receipts are expected to follow a similar growth as that of fruits (17%) to reach 22.5 billion dollars

  12. Vegetable Value Forecast

  13. Production • While production for major Vegetables has grown at of 52 % per year Fruits has been stable with a percent growth of 4 % per year.

  14. Production

  15. Consumption • Historical Trends Show that Consumption for vegetables has grown 21% while fruits have been growing at a rate of 9%

  16. Consumption

  17. Commodity Import Share Lettuce1-1.5% Fresh White Onions11-12% Potatoes 6-8% Tomatoes 35-40% Table Grapes 52-58% Apples Fresh 6-9%, Juice 63-80% Oranges Fresh 3-7%, Juice 13-21% Fresh Strawberries 5-8% Range: Fruits 24%, Vegetables 18%

  18. Farm Bill IssuesCurrent Policy Analysis • Flex Acre Provisions • Market Expansion • School lunch program (fruit and vegetable)

  19. Flex Acre Restriction • Commodity program participants allowed to produce any crop except, fruits, vegetables, and wild rice • Traditionally, an argument supported by concerns over equity • Restriction called into question under Brazil’s challenge of the U.S. cotton program • Additional complexity – 2002 Farm Bill brought soybeans and peanuts under the DCP program

  20. Flex Acre - Complexities • Fruit and vegetable crops are commercially produced in every state • Program crops are produced in every state • Program crop producers are enrolled in commodity programs in nearly every state • Traditionally returns in many fruit and vegetable crops have exceeded returns on program crop commodities, though typically more variable

  21. Potential Entry into Fruits & Vegetables • Competing Areas • 219 million acres program crops (2002) • 267 million acres enrolled acres • 10 million acres – all produce • Where and what • Processing vegetables – not likely • Tree fruit, berry (cane-type) – not likely • Fresh vegetables, melons – more likely • Areas with existing production

  22. Select Region • Program Crop Acreage: 4.5 Million Acres • Cotton, winter wheat, sorghum, corn, peanuts • Produce Crop Acreage: 695,210 Acres • 50 produce crops • Lettuce, cantaloupes, tomatoes, carrots, watermelon, sweet corn, potatoes, broccoli, onions, cabbage, cucumbers

  23. Farm Bill Issues Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Snack Program Expand Authorization Health Impacts Long Term Direction

  24. Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Snack Program • 14 States (350 schools) • 4 Indian Communities (SD, AZ, NM, 25 schools) • Permanent funding of $ 9 million/year • FY 07 Expand to CA, AR, GA • Full implementation of FVSP, NFAPP estimates an increase of $1.1 billion farm income

  25. Farm Bill Issues Specialty Crop Competitiveness Market Access Non Tariff Barrier Reduction Phytosanitary

  26. Specialty Crop Competitiveness • Stagnant export growth –lack of access to foreign markets • Subsidized foreign competition • Rapidly increasing production costs • Increasing import competition from growers in nations with minimal regulations • Labor uncertainty

  27. Thank you

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