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The Technical Risk Identification and Mitigation System (TRIMS) August 2008

The Technical Risk Identification and Mitigation System (TRIMS) August 2008. The Beginning of Process-Based Risk Management. Many programs failing or suffering cost/schedule overruns Defense Science Board studies the problem; publishes findings in

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The Technical Risk Identification and Mitigation System (TRIMS) August 2008

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  1. The Technical Risk Identification and Mitigation System (TRIMS) August 2008

  2. The Beginning of Process-Based Risk Management Many programs failing or suffering cost/schedule overruns Defense Science Board studies the problem; publishes findings in DOD 4245.7-M (The “Willoughby Templates”) Best Manufacturing Practices Program established to help the U.S. Defense Industrial Base - BMP conducts first Survey (Texas Instruments) BMP publishes NAVSO P-6071 (Best Practices Book) BMP contracts with Bell Labs to write more detail on each Template First version of PMWS is created BMP Center of Excellence established in College Park, MD BMP conducts 100th Survey (Northrop Grumman) 1960-1980 1983-1984 1985 1986 1987 1991 1993 2000

  3. The Beginning of Process-Based Risk Management Many programs failing or suffering cost/schedule overruns Defense Science Board studies the problem; publishes findings in DOD 4245.7-M (The “Willoughby Templates”) Best Manufacturing Practices Program established to help the U.S. Defense Industrial Base - BMP conducts first Survey (Texas Instruments) BMP publishes NAVSO P-6071 (Best Practices Book) BMP contracts with Bell Labs to write more detail on each Template First version of PMWS is created BMP Center of Excellence established in College Park, MD BMP conducts 100th Survey (Northrop Grumman) 1960-1980 1983-1984 1985 1986 1987 1991 1993 2000 Processed-based risk management came about as a result of the acquisition problems that occurred in the ’60s and ’70s.

  4. The Beginning of Process-Based Risk Management Many programs failing or suffering cost/schedule overruns Defense Science Board studies the problem; publishes findings in DOD 4245.7-M (The “Willoughby Templates”) Best Manufacturing Practices Program established to help the U.S. Defense Industrial Base - BMP conducts first Survey (Texas Instruments) BMP publishes NAVSO P-6071 (Best Practices Book) BMP contracts with Bell Labs to write more detail on each Template First version of PMWS is created BMP Center of Excellence established in College Park, MD BMP conducts 100th Survey (Northrop Grumman) 1960-1980 1983-1984 1985 1986 1987 1991 1993 2000 In 1983, the Defense Science Board convened a group of academics, government experts, and members of industry to study the issue.

  5. Problem Areas Identified by DSB They discovered that most programs failed because of basic engineering process issues, rather than high-technology issues. Money Phasing Design Reference Mission Profile Design Requirements Trade Studies Design Policy Design Process Design Analysis Parts & Material Selection Software Design Computer-Aided Design (CAD) Design for Testing Built-In Test (BIT) Configuration Control Design Reviews Design Release Integrated Test Failure Reporting System Uniform Test Report Software Test Design Limit Life Test, Analyze & Fix (TAAF) Field Feedback Manufacturing Plan Qualify Manufacturing Process Piece Part Control Subcontractor Control Defect Control Tool Planning Special Test Equipment (STE) Computer-Aided Manufacturing (CAM) Manufacturing Screening Transition Plan Modernization Factory Improvements Productivity Center Logistics Support Analysis Manpower & Personnel Support & Test Equipment Training Materials & Equipment Spares Technical Manuals Manufacturing Strategy Personnel Requirements Data Requirements Technical Risk Assessment Production Breaks

  6. Problem Areas Identified by DSB They also established that most program failures were the result of one or more of the 47 issues shown here. Money Phasing Design Reference Mission Profile Design Requirements Trade Studies Design Policy Design Process Design Analysis Parts & Material Selection Software Design Computer-Aided Design (CAD) Design for Testing Built-In Test (BIT) Configuration Control Design Reviews Design Release Integrated Test Failure Reporting System Uniform Test Report Software Test Design Limit Life Test, Analyze & Fix (TAAF) Field Feedback Manufacturing Plan Qualify Manufacturing Process Piece Part Control Subcontractor Control Defect Control Tool Planning Special Test Equipment (STE) Computer-Aided Manufacturing (CAM) Manufacturing Screening Transition Plan Modernization Factory Improvements Productivity Center Logistics Support Analysis Manpower & Personnel Support & Test Equipment Training Materials & Equipment Spares Technical Manuals Manufacturing Strategy Personnel Requirements Data Requirements Technical Risk Assessment Production Breaks

  7. Problem Areas Identified by DSB These 47 areas were then organized into 8 categories… TEST: Integrated Test Failure Reporting System Uniform Test Report Software Test Design Limit Life Test, Analyze & Fix (TAAF) Field Feedback PRODUCTION: Manufacturing Plan Qualify Manufacturing Process Piece Part Control Subcontractor Control Defect Control Tool Planning Special Test Equipment (STE) Computer-Aided Manufacturing (CAM) Manufacturing Screening TRANSITION: Transition Plan FACILITIES: Modernization Factory Improvements Productivity Center LOGISTICS: Logistics Support Analysis Manpower & Personnel Support & Test Equipment Training Materials & Equipment Spares Technical Manuals MANAGEMENT: Manufacturing Strategy Personnel Requirements Data Requirements Technical Risk Assessment Production Breaks FUNDING: Money Phasing DESIGN: Design Reference Mission Profile Design Requirements Trade Studies Design Policy Design Process Design Analysis Parts & Material Selection Software Design Computer-Aided Design (CAD) Design for Testing Built-In Test (BIT) Configuration Control Design Reviews Design Release

  8. DoD 4245.7-M …and the results were published in DoD 4245.7-M, where they came to be known as “The Willoughby Templates”.

  9. NAVSO P-6071 In 1986, the Best Manufacturing Practices (BMP) program published NAVSO P-6071, also known as “The Best Practices Book”

  10. NAVSO P-6071 (Best Practices Book)

  11. NAVSO P-6071 (Best Practices Book) This book takes each of the 47 Template areas described in DoD 4245.7-M, and identifies the 4 major traps that programs are likely to encounter.

  12. NAVSO P-6071 (Best Practices Book) This book takes each of the 47 Template areas described in DoD 4245.7-M, and identifies the 4 major traps that programs are likely to encounter.

  13. NAVSO P-6071 (Best Practices Book) It identifies the consequences of falling into each trap, and alarms that indicate that this might be happening.

  14. NAVSO P-6071 (Best Practices Book) It also identifies the best practices for (and the benefits of) avoiding each trap.

  15. NAVSO P-6071 (Best Practices Book) It also identifies the best practices for (and the benefits of) avoiding each trap.

  16. NAVSO P-6071 (Best Practices Book) It also identifies the best practices for (and the benefits of) avoiding each trap.

  17. NAVSO P-6071 (Best Practices Book) It also identifies the best practices for (and the benefits of) avoiding each trap.

  18. NAVSO P-6071 (Best Practices Book) It also identifies the best practices for (and the benefits of) avoiding each trap.

  19. NAVSO P-6071 (Best Practices Book) The book also includes checklist questions covering the best practices for each Template.

  20. Some Things To Consider • Defense Science Board Studies Determined that 80% of all Programs that Fail, Fail for Engineering not Technology Reasons • Example: N43 Reports that Over 65% of all Fleet Reliability Problems are Due to Inadequate Design • February 1998 GAO Report to the Subcommittee on Acquisition & Technology, Committee on Armed Services, U. S. Senate • Since 1975 Schedule Overruns Average 24% • Weapon Systems Overruns Cost 20% - 40% • March 2005 GAO Report: • Average Cost Increase Will be 28.5% in Only 4 Years • Reason: “Armed services order hardware with unproven technology, with too little time allowed for perfecting that technology before contractors attempt to insert it into weapons systems...” • With Acquisition Reform and Performance Specifications, We Must Monitor the Engineering Process to Understand Program Risks Do Not Get Technology Tunnel Vision

  21. Some Things To Consider • Defense Science Board Studies Determined that 80% of all Programs that Fail, Fail for Engineering not Technology Reasons • Example: N43 Reports that Over 65% of all Fleet Reliability Problems are Due to Inadequate Design • February 1998 GAO Report to the Subcommittee on Acquisition & Technology, Committee on Armed Services, U. S. Senate • Since 1975 Schedule Overruns Average 24% • Weapon Systems Overruns Cost 20% - 40% • March 2005 GAO Report: • Average Cost Increase Will be 28.5% in Only 4 Years • Reason: “Armed services order hardware with unproven technology, with too little time allowed for perfecting that technology before contractors attempt to insert it into weapons systems...” • With Acquisition Reform and Performance Specifications, We Must Monitor the Engineering Process to Understand Program Risks Unfortunately, too many programs are still having the same problems today! Do Not Get Technology Tunnel Vision

  22. So what is the answer?

  23. TRIMS Technical Risk Identification & Mitigation System

  24. What Is TRIMS? • TRIMS (Technical Risk Identification & Mitigation System): A Methodology for Doing Knowledge-Based, Process-Oriented Risk Management • Part of the Program Manager’s WorkStation (PMWS) Tool suite (Navy Owned, Fixed Revision Cycle) • Outgrowth of DoD 4245.7-M and NAVSO P-6071 Templates • Fully Compatible with BMPCOE Combined Government / Industry Systems Engineering Model • Fully Supported: Training Classes, Computer-Based Training, On-line Help, 24-hour Help Desk Process Based And Predictive

  25. What Is TRIMS? TRIMS is a process-based risk management tool, that grew out of the checklist questions in NAVSO P-6071. • TRIMS (Technical Risk Identification & Mitigation System): A Methodology for Doing Knowledge-Based, Process-Oriented Risk Management • Part of the Program Manager’s WorkStation (PMWS) Tool Suite (Navy Owned, Fixed Revision Cycle) • Outgrowth of DoD 4245.7-M and NAVSO P-6071 Templates • Fully Compatible with BMPCOE Combined Government / Industry Systems Engineering Model • Fully Supported: Training Classes, Computer-Based Training, On-line Help, 24-hour Help Desk Process Based And Predictive

  26. TRIMS Proactive Methodology Risk Assessment Probability Effect • Guidance Documents • EngineeringProcess Model • Statistics Mission ProfileScheduleQualityCost PastExperience Planning &Tracking SystemArchitecture Risk Management • Milestone Dates TRIMS Risks PersonnelAssignments Next Actions QuestionWeighting • Risk Management • Snapshot Assessments • Multiple Program Rollups • Automatic Updates Responsibilities Due Dates Action ItemTracking ComplianceStatus References Understanding The Future Effects Of Today's Decisions

  27. TRIMS Proactive Methodology “Risk” is a function of probability and effect. Determining these for your program is “Risk Assessment”. Risk Assessment Probability Effect • Guidance Documents • EngineeringProcess Model • Statistics Mission ProfileScheduleQualityCost PastExperience Planning &Tracking SystemArchitecture Risk Management • Milestone Dates TRIMS Risks PersonnelAssignments Next Actions QuestionWeighting • Risk Management • Snapshot Assessments • Multiple Program Rollups • Automatic Updates Responsibilities Due Dates Action ItemTracking ComplianceStatus References Understanding The Future Effects Of Today's Decisions

  28. TRIMS Proactive Methodology Risk Assessment Probability Effect • Guidance Documents • EngineeringProcess Model • Statistics Mission ProfileScheduleQualityCost PastExperience Planning &Tracking SystemArchitecture Risk Management To do “Risk Management” you also have to do planning and tracking: establish a plan to mitigate your risks, and then track it to ensure that the plan is being followed, and that it is having the desired effect! • Milestone Dates TRIMS Risks PersonnelAssignments Next Actions QuestionWeighting • Risk Management • Snapshot Assessments • Multiple Program Rollups • Automatic Updates Responsibilities Due Dates Action ItemTracking ComplianceStatus References Understanding The Future Effects Of Today's Decisions

  29. TRIMS Proactive Methodology Risk Assessment Probability Effect • Guidance Documents • EngineeringProcess Model • Statistics Mission ProfileScheduleQualityCost PastExperience Planning &Tracking SystemArchitecture TRIMS provides all of these capabilities, plus analysis, reporting, and workload-reduction features! Risk Management • Milestone Dates TRIMS Risks PersonnelAssignments Next Actions QuestionWeighting • Risk Management • Snapshot Assessments • Multiple Program Rollups • Automatic Updates Responsibilities Due Dates Action ItemTracking ComplianceStatus References Understanding The Future Effects Of Today's Decisions

  30. Proactive vs. Reactive The TRIMS philosophy recognizes that before you have schedule slippages and cost overruns, you have technical issues. Schedule Slippage Cost Overruns TRIMS Identifies the Root Causes of Cost & Schedule Problems

  31. Proactive vs. Reactive The TRIMS philosophy recognizes that before you have schedule slippages and cost overruns, you have technical issues. Technical Issues Schedule Slippage Cost Overruns TRIMS Identifies the Root Causes of Cost & Schedule Problems

  32. Proactive vs. Reactive And before you have technical issues, you have failures in your engineering processes. Process Risks Technical Issues Schedule Slippage Cost Overruns TRIMS Identifies the Root Causes of Cost & Schedule Problems

  33. Proactive vs. Reactive Analyzing your processes can provide early indication of potential problems. Process Risks Proactive Technical Issues Schedule Slippage Cost Overruns Reactive TRIMS Identifies the Root Causes of Cost & Schedule Problems

  34. Evolution of Risks T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 Another way to look at this... Process Risks “A ‘Problem’ Is A Risk Whose Time Has Come”

  35. Evolution of Risks T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 A Process issue that is left unchecked can lead to one or more Product issues. Process Risks “A ‘Problem’ Is A Risk Whose Time Has Come”

  36. Product Risks Evolution of Risks T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 A Process issue that is left unchecked can lead to one or more Product issues. Process Risks “A ‘Problem’ Is A Risk Whose Time Has Come”

  37. Evolution of Risks T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 And Product issues that are left unchecked can lead to Problems. Process Risks Product Risks “A ‘Problem’ Is A Risk Whose Time Has Come”

  38. Problems Evolution of Risks T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 And Product issues that are left unchecked can lead to Problems. Process Risks Product Risks “A ‘Problem’ Is A Risk Whose Time Has Come”

  39. Evolution of Risks By focusing on good engineering processes, it becomes possible to avoid many typical problems that programs encounter. T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 Process Risks Product Risks Problems “A ‘Problem’ Is A Risk Whose Time Has Come”

  40. Evolution of Risks By focusing on good engineering processes, it becomes possible to avoid many typical problems that programs encounter. T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 Process Risks Product Risks Problems “A ‘Problem’ Is A Risk Whose Time Has Come”

  41. Cost To Mitigate Increases Exponentially Design Test Production $100 We also know that the cost of resolving issues tends to increase by [roughly] an order of magnitude from one phase to the next. Cost to Mitigate $10 $1 Time

  42. Problems Cost To Mitigate Increases Exponentially Design Test Production Cost to Mitigate So, focusing on process risks just makes good economic sense. Product Risks Process Risks Time Risk Management or Damage Control?

  43. TRIMS Baseline Templates Shown here are the original “Willoughby Templates”, from DoD 4245.7-M. PRODUCT TQM Money Phasing FUNDING DESIGN TEST PRODUCTION FACILITIES LOGISTICS MANAGEMENT • Integrated Test • Failure Reporting System • Uniform Test Report • Software Test • Design Limit • Life • Test, Analyze & Fix (TAAF) • Field Feedback • Modernization • Factory Improvements • Productivity Center • Logistics Support Analysis • Manpower & Personnel • Support & Test Equipment • Training Materials & Equipment • Spares • Technical Manuals • Manufacturing Strategy • Personnel Requirements • Data Requirements • Technical Risk Assessment • Production Breaks • Design Refer. Mission Profile • Design Requirements • Trade Studies • Design Policy • Design Process • Design Analysis • Parts & Mater. Selection • Software Design • Computer-Aided Design (CAD) • Design for Testing • Built-In Test (BIT) • Configuration Control • Design Reviews • Design Release • Manufacturing Plan • Qualify Manufacturing Process • Piece Part Control • Subcontractor Control • Defect Control • Tool Planning • Special Test Equipment (STE) • CAM • Manufacturing Screening TRANSITION PLAN

  44. TRIMS Baseline Templates Shown here are the original “Willoughby Templates”, from DoD 4245.7-M. PRODUCT TQM Money Phasing FUNDING DESIGN TEST PRODUCTION FACILITIES LOGISTICS MANAGEMENT • Integrated Test • Failure Reporting System • Uniform Test Report • Software Test • Design Limit • Life • Test, Analyze & Fix (TAAF) • Field Feedback • Modernization • Factory Improvements • Productivity Center • Logistics Support Analysis • Manpower & Personnel • Support & Test Equipment • Training Materials & Equipment • Spares • Technical Manuals • Manufacturing Strategy • Personnel Requirements • Data Requirements • Technical Risk Assessment • Production Breaks • Design Refer. Mission Profile • Design Requirements • Trade Studies • Design Policy • Design Process • Design Analysis • Parts & Mater. Selection • Software Design • Computer-Aided Design (CAD) • Design for Testing • Built-In Test (BIT) • Configuration Control • Design Reviews • Design Release • Manufacturing Plan • Qualify Manufacturing Process • Piece Part Control • Subcontractor Control • Defect Control • Tool Planning • Special Test Equipment (STE) • CAM • Manufacturing Screening • CAM • Manufacturing Screening TRANSITION PLAN

  45. TRIMS Baseline Templates The TRIMS SE Model includes the original 47 Templates, plus another 21 templates that BMPCOE has added over the years – the principles have been around for 20 years, but the model is up-to-date! PRODUCT TQM Money Phasing CostAssessment FUNDING DESIGN TEST PRODUCTION FACILITIES LOGISTICS MANAGEMENT • Integrated Test • Failure Reporting System • Uniform Test Report • Software Test • Design Limit • Life • Test, Analyze & Fix (TAAF) • Field Feedback • TEMP Development/ Execution • Software Simulator • Modernization • Factory Improvements • Productivity Center • Field Visits/Site Surveys • Logistics Support Analysis • Manpower & Personnel • Support & Test Equipment • Training Materials & Equipment • Spares • Technical Manuals • Logistics Analysis Documentation • Manufacturing Strategy • Personnel Requirements • Data Requirements • Technical Risk Assessment • Production Breaks • Determining Defining Need for System • Prepare Requirement Documents • Quality Assurance • Design/Milestone Review Planning • Make or Buy Decisions • Technology Base Analysis • Schedule & Planning • Dim. Manuf. Sources & Mat. Shortage (DMSMS) • Design Refer. Mission Profile • Design Requirements • Trade Studies • Design Policy • Design Process • Design Analysis • Parts & Mater. Selection • Software Design • Computer-Aided Design (CAD) • Design for Testing • Built-In Test (BIT) • Configuration Control • Design Reviews • Design Release • Concept Studies & Analysis • Bread Board Development • Brass Board Development • Specification Dev/Allocation/ Validation • Design for Assembly • Prototype Development & Review • Manufacturing Plan • Qualify Manufacturing Process • Piece Part Control • Subcontractor Control • Defect Control • Tool Planning • Special Test Equipment (STE) • CAM • Manufacturing Screening • Production Fabrication • Environmental Issues • CAM • Manufacturing Screening • Production Fabrication • Environmental Issues New PMWS Templates TRANSITION PLAN

  46. TRIMS Tailoring TRIMS Hierarchy Management Logistics Funding Design Test Production Facilities TransitionPlan 4.0 Design 3 Tiers: Category Template Knowledge Base Question The TRIMS approach to risk is based on “Process Templates”, that contain smart questions. 4.6 Design Analysis 4.6.1 Do the contractor's corporate standards identify design analysis as an integral part of the design process?

  47. TRIMS Tailoring TRIMS Hierarchy Management Logistics Funding Design Test Production Facilities TransitionPlan 4.0 Design 3 Tiers: Category Template Knowledge Base Question 4.6 Design Analysis These questions help determine your risk exposure in each process-risk area. 4.6.1 Do the contractor's corporate standards identify design analysis as an integral part of the design process?

  48. TRIMS Tailoring TRIMS Hierarchy Management Logistics Funding Design Test Production Facilities TransitionPlan TRIMS is flexible… You can add your own Questions to any Template. 4.0 Design 3 Tiers: Category Template Knowledge Base Question 4.6 Design Analysis UserAddedQuestions 4.6.1 Do the contractor's corporate standards identify design analysis as an integral part of the design process?

  49. TRIMS Tailoring TRIMS Hierarchy Management Logistics Funding Design Test Production Facilities TransitionPlan You can add your own Templates... 4.0 Design UserAddedTemplates 3 Tiers: Category Template Knowledge Base Question 4.6 Design Analysis UserAddedQuestions 4.6.1 Do the contractor's corporate standards identify design analysis as an integral part of the design process?

  50. Management Logistics Funding Design Test Production Facilities TransitionPlan TRIMS Tailoring User AddedCategories TRIMS Hierarchy …or even add entire Categories! 4.0 Design UserAddedTemplates 3 Tiers: Category Template Knowledge Base Question 4.6 Design Analysis UserAddedQuestions 4.6.1 Do the contractor's corporate standards identify design analysis as an integral part of the design process?

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