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Social Security Income and Elderly Mortality Study

Investigating the impact of Social Security income on elderly mortality among divorced women, utilizing instrumental variables and treatment effects analysis. Findings reveal no direct correlation between income and mortality in this demographic. Implications for policy interventions at different life stages.

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Social Security Income and Elderly Mortality Study

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  1. SOCIAL SECURITY INCOME AND ELDERLY MORTALITY Cristian Meghea, PhD (cristianm@acr.org) Research Department American College of Radiology, Reston, VA AcademyHealth Annual Research Meeting Seattle, June 2006 Pre-publication information. Please do not cite

  2. 1. Introduction • Social Security reform: uncertainty of future retirement income • Effects of changes in social insurance on elderly well-being? • Previous studies: • Wealth improves health and lowers mortality • The effect weakens (disappears) at older ages

  3. 2. Introduction • Wealth influences health (mortality). Also, reverse causality from health to wealth • Difficult to separate the causal effect of wealth on health from the reversed effect of health on wealth • This study: the causal effect of Social Security income on elderly mortality

  4. 3. This study… • Natural experiment isolates the effect of income on mortality • Social Security spousal benefits of divorced women double if the ex passes away • Divorced retired women: fastest growing aged group, highest poverty, understudied

  5. 4. Social Security Admin. data • New Beneficiary Data System (NBDS), from the Social Security Administration • Wave 1: 1982 interview of “new beneficiaries” • Wave 2: 1991 follow-up interview of initial respondents • Matched Social Security administrative records

  6. 5. Method: I.V. and treatment effect • Dependent variable: ten-year mortality (1 if deceased in ten years, 0 otherwise) • I.V.: Instrumental variable estimation • All divorced women: instrument for the benefits using the death of the ex-husband • Treatment-control estimation • Divorced women receiving spousal benefits; ex-spouse deceased vs. ex-spouse alive

  7. 6. Correlation income-mortality All elderly: Probability(ten-year mortality)

  8. 7. Instrumental Variables All divorced women: Probability(ten-year mortality)

  9. 8. No effect of income on mortality • Instrumental variable, all elderly divorced women: no effect of income on mortality • Other explanatory variables: • White, older, worse health: higher mortality

  10. 9. Treatment/comparison analysis Divorced women, spousal benefits: P(ten-year mortality)

  11. 10. No effect of income on mortality • Divorced women receiving Social Security spousal benefits: no effect of income on mortality • Other explanatory variables: • Older, worse health: higher mortality

  12. 11. Summary: income and mortality • All elderly: no correlation between income and mortality • All elderly divorced women: no effect of income on mortality (IV technique) • Elderly divorced women receiving spousal benefits: no effect of income on mortality (treatment effect technique)

  13. 12. Implications • Better socioeconomic status may improve health at younger ages: policies are effective • If policies enhancing socioeconomic status come late in life: ineffective

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