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Problem Solving

Problem Solving. Objectives. Learn how to state and clarify a problem Develop a procedure for problem solving Learn the traps in problem solving . What’s typical?. Self-Doubt. Over Confidence. Procrastination. Flip - flops. Desperation!. WRONG!.

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Problem Solving

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  1. Problem Solving

  2. Objectives • Learn how to state and clarify a problem • Develop a procedure for problem solving • Learn the traps in problem solving

  3. What’s typical? Self-Doubt Over Confidence Procrastination Flip-flops Desperation! WRONG!

  4. Six Criteria for Effective Decisions • Focuses on what is important • Logical and consistent • Acknowledges objective and subjective factors, blends analytical and intuitive thinking • Does not gather too much information • Tries to reach consensus • Straightforward, reliable, easy to use, flexible

  5. Problem Solving Model P OACT roblem bjectives lternatives onsequences radeoffs

  6. Additional Factors • Risk • Uncertainty • Linked decisions

  7. Problem Solving Steps • State the problem carefully • Acknowledge complexities • Avoid assumptions and prejudices • Specify the objectives • Create imaginative alternatives • Understand the consequences of the alternative • Grapple with your tradeoffs………con’t

  8. Problem Solving Steps, con’t • Clarify uncertainties • Think about your risk tolerance and the risks of each alternative • Consider linked decisions • Each alternative opens or closes future options

  9. What’s the best solution? A good solution to a well-posed problem…. Is a almost always a smarter choice than.. An excellent solution to a poorly posed problem

  10. Define the Problem • What triggers the problem? • State the problem • Question the constraints of the problem • statement • Identify the essential elements • How does this impact other decisions? • What is the scope of the problem? • Gain insights from others • Restate problem, if necessary

  11. What Objectives Do • Help determine what information to seek • Explain your choices to others • Determine the importance of, time and effort devoted to the problem

  12. How to identify objectives • Write down the concerns you hope to address: • Wish list • Worst possible outcome • Impact on others • Insights from others • What’s a good alternative but unfeasible? • What is bad about the worst alternatives?

  13. How to identify objectives • Convert the concerns into succinct objectives • Separate the ends from the means • Clarify what you mean by each objective • Test your objectives

  14. Alternatives • Use your objects and ask HOW? • Challenge constraints to your alternatives • Set high aspirations • Think through your alternatives before consulting others • Learn from past experience • Then ask others for suggestions

  15. How to generate alternatives • Brainstorming • Just list alternatives, don’t evaluate • Never stop looking for alternatives • Look for win-win alternatives • Stop when you’ve thought through alternatives • One solution would satisfy you • But still have a range of alternatives

  16. Consequences • List the consequences of each alternative • Assess the future consequences of each alternative • Create a free-form description of the consequences • Eliminate any clearly inferior alternatives • Organize descriptions of remaining alternatives into a table …….

  17. Consequences • Try to develop a common scale to measure consequences • Use qualitative and quantitative data • Use experts if necessary • Use scales that reflect appropriate levels of precision

  18. Tradeoffs • Eliminate alternatives clearly dominated by others • Then swaps between alternatives using measures • Value incremental improvements • Make consistent tradeoffs

  19. Uncertainties • What are the key uncertainties? • What are the possible outcomes of these uncertainties? • What are the changes of the outcomes, given these uncertainties? • What are the consequences of each outcome?….

  20. Uncertainties • Identify the key uncertainties • Define the possible outcomes • Assign chance of occurrence of each outcome • Clarify consequences using quantitative and qualitative measures • Create a decision tree

  21. Risk Tolerance • How much risk do you want to handle? • How much are others affected by your decision? • Quantify the risks, if possible • Seek to lessen the risks but avoid foolish optimism • Don’t avoid making risky decisions just because they are complex

  22. How to lessen risk • Seek risk reducing information • Diversify the risk • Hedge the risk • Insure against the risk

  23. Linked decisions • Choose options that leave future flexibility intact • Get timing right on decision tree • Describe the consequences at the end points

  24. Psychological Traps • Working on the wrong problem • Failing to identify key objectives • Failing to develop a range of good, creative alternatives • Overlooking crucial consequences of your alternatives • Giving inadequate thought to tradeoffs • Disregarding uncertainty…….

  25. Traps, con’t • Failing to account for risk intolerance • Failing to plan ahead when decisions are linked over time... So, tell me some specifics on these traps...

  26. Anchoring trap Status Quo Trap Sunk Cost Trap Confirming Evidence Trap Framing Trap Overconfidence Trap Recallability Trap Base Rate Trap Prudence Trap Random Events Common Traps

  27. Review • A model for problem solving • The actions in each of the steps • Common Traps in problem solving

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