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Volumetrics

Volumetrics. Nexus Workgroup January 2016. Action. Action 1202: Volumetrics - Xoserve to consider the peaks [within the DECC roll out curve] and demonstrate in real terms what this may look like across the month.

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Volumetrics

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  1. Volumetrics Nexus Workgroup January 2016

  2. Action • Action 1202: Volumetrics - Xoserve to consider the peaks [within the DECC roll out curve] and demonstrate in real terms what this may look like across the month. • Assess potential peak day meter reading volumes considering the available Smart Roll Out Figures • In order to do so, need to define: • Smart Roll Out – baseline figures • Peak Volumes • This will depend upon behaviours which have to be tested

  3. Smart Roll Out Figures Source: Steve Mulinganie

  4. Smart Roll Out – interpretation • What this looks like for gas meters:

  5. Assumptions • The following assumptions were used to get to this position: • Profile assumed in the following way: Note: actuals recorded at Sept 15 < stated for June 2015

  6. Peak Reading Volumes against Smart Roll Out • Key factors to consider: • Product utilisation • Profile of submission

  7. Process Specific Assumptions • Class take-up • To help in developing the requirement, and therefore the assumed Class take-up volumes, the overall meter point count was split into 3 groupings based on their AQ band: • AQ Group 1: DM Mandatory • AQ Group 2: Meter Points with an AQ greater than 732,000 kWh and less than 58,600,000 kWh • AQ Group 3: Meter Points with an AQ less than 732,000 kWh • Assumed that, with the exception of Class 1, Class utilisationprofile will fluctuate and will not remain static • For Go Live assumed that the majority (around 75%) of smart meter sites in AQ Group 3 will remain in Class 4 with a small take-up in Class 2 & 3 • Take-up of Class 3 for AQ Group 3 meter points as smart meters are installed • All dumb meter sites will remain in Class 4, quarterly read 15_07

  8. Process Specific Assumptions • Meter Read submissions • Daily reads for Class 1 & 2 meter points • For planning its been assumed that all Class 3 reads will be submitted on a monthly basis with 30 reads per batch • Class 3 reads will be submitted over a 5 day period to allow for the batch of readings to be submitted within the defined timescales • Class 4 reads from smart meters will be submitted monthly • Provision made for the submission of a weekly read • Class 4 reads from dumb meters will be submitted quarterly • Class 4 reads will be submitted over a 20 day period, not smoothed across the whole month, allowing for a higher average daily volume 15_07

  9. Process Specific Assumptions • Meter Read submissions • Daily reads for Class 1 & 2 meter points • For planning its been assumed that all Class 3 reads will be submitted on a monthly basis with 30 reads per batch • Class 3 reads will be submitted over a 5 day period to allow for the batch of readings to be submitted within the defined timescales • Class 4 reads from smart meters will be submitted monthly • Provision made for the submission of a weekly read • Class 4 reads from dumb meters will be submitted quarterly • Class 4 reads will be submitted over a 20 day period, not smoothed across the whole month, allowing for a higher average daily volume 15_07

  10. Planned Approach • Action 1202: Volumetrics – Xoserve to compare the baseline position and what timescales would be required to advance this.

  11. Planned Approach • Propose to provide assumed volumetrics • Maximum Design Volumes • Assumed volumes against which UK Link has been designed • Expected Usage Volumes • Peak transaction rates for key input transactions 15_10

  12. Why? • Figures will provide: • The above are necessary to ensure that Users of the system understand capacity • Better sense of capacity ownership within User / Transporter community • What Users can do to maximise existing volumes? • Volumes are susceptible to fluctuation as a result of User decisions • E.g. and particularly ‘Class’ products • Ability to amend where the future is not perfect • Smart Roll Out • Others??? • Assists in defining a process for one off breaches • E.g. mass updates of specific flows 15_10

  13. How do we keep ahead of the curve? • Will require an industry process to assess this • Envisaged in UK Link Manual • Users will be required to provide forecast of usage of UK Link • 12 month forecast required at 6 monthly intervals • UK Link Committee – mandated responses from portfolio shippers greater than [100,000] meter points / assume roll forward? 15_10

  14. Any Questions? Whilst the information and data ("the Information") in this document is provided to you in good faith, it includes third party provided data which has not been verified. No warranty or representation of accuracy, completeness or fitness for purpose is given by Xoserve in respect of the information and you are advised that any use of the information by you or your employees is entirely at your own risk.

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