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U.S. Hog Outlook: Trends in Production, Prices, and Disease Impact (2000-2014)

This report provides an in-depth analysis of the U.S. hog production sector from 2000 to 2014, focusing on costs, prices, and key trends affecting the industry. It highlights significant factors such as the impact of the PED virus, which dramatically affected young pig mortality rates. The report also examines pork import/export ratios and trends in profitability for farrow-to-finish operations. Key data sources include Iowa State University and the USDA, offering valuable insights into the market outlook for hog production.

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U.S. Hog Outlook: Trends in Production, Prices, and Disease Impact (2000-2014)

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  1. Hog Outlook (title) Hog Outlook Ron Plain July 17, 2014

  2. Cost of Slaughter Hog Production, 2000-2014 Source: Iowa State University

  3. U.S. Retail Pork Prices, 2000-2014 Source: USDA/ERS

  4. Source: USDA/ERS

  5. U.S. Pork Imports & Exports as % of U.S. Pork Production, 2006-2014 Source: USDA/ERS

  6. June 2014 Hog Inventory Source: USDA NASS

  7. PED Virus Identified in Europe in 1971 First cases in Asia in 1982 First cases in U.S. in April 2013 First identified in May Found on 7,603* hog farms by 6/29/14 Near 100% death loss in young pigs Not a zoonotic disease (no risk to people) Not a food safety concern *unknown amount of double counting

  8. PEDV & PDCoV Cases by WeekNAHLN Reports Source: AASV & NAHLN

  9. U.S. Pigs Per Litter by Month January 2014 PPL lowest since January 2009

  10. U.S. Pigs Per Litter by Month PPL during Dec-Feb was down 5.5%. Mar-May was down 5.1%. Previous biggest decline was 1.68% in Jun-Aug 1988

  11. Sows Farrowed by Quarter - U.S. Source: USDA/NASS

  12. record

  13. Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

  14. Commercial Pork Production ForecastMillion Pounds ------- Change ------- 2013-142014-15. +0.2% - 2.5% - 0.2% - 1.2% - 2.3% +4.9% - 4.7% +7.0% - 1.8% +2.1% *forecast

  15. Iowa-Minn Hog Price, QuarterlyNegotiated Base Price Per Carcass Hundredweight *forecast price

  16. Net Slaughter Hog PriceMonthly Average 2002-2014

  17. Iowa Farrow to Finish Profits, 2006-2015 Forecast Source: Ron Plain, University of Missouri

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