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THE BRADLEY EFFECT AND THE DO-WHITES-VOTE-FOR-BLACKS QUESTION

THE BRADLEY EFFECT AND THE DO-WHITES-VOTE-FOR-BLACKS QUESTION Answering questions and testing hypotheses on data for the presidential elections in the United States of America from 1980 to 2008 Wout Ultee Radboud University Nijmegen November 11, 2008

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THE BRADLEY EFFECT AND THE DO-WHITES-VOTE-FOR-BLACKS QUESTION

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  1. THE BRADLEY EFFECT AND THE DO-WHITES-VOTE-FOR-BLACKS QUESTION Answering questions and testing hypotheses on data for the presidential elections in the United States of America from 1980 to 2008 Wout Ultee Radboud University Nijmegen November 11, 2008 Course Contemporary sociological theories Second bachelor year

  2. WHY DID OBAMA WIN FROM McCAIN? HE GOT MORE MONEY FOR TV-ADS THAN McCAIN BUT WHY DID OBAMA GET MORE MONEY THAN McCAIN? THERE ARE MORE RESOURCES THAN MONEY OTHER RESOURCES ARE SYMBOLIC AND AN EFFECTIVE SYMBOLIC RESOURCE IS CHARISMA OR FLUENCY, THE GIFT OF THE GAB, RHETORICS SYMBOLIC RESOURCES, YES, OBAMA USED THEM AND OBAMA OBTAINED MONEY IN THAT WAY

  3. BUT OBAMA NOT ONLY UTILIZED SYMBOLIC RESOURCES OBAMA ALSO FACED SYMBOLIC HANDICAPS OBAMA’S FOREMOST SYMBOLIC HANDICAP WAS THE COLOR OF HIS SKIN HOW MUCH EFFECT DID THIS SYMBOLIC HANDICAP HAVE? WE COMPLEMENT A MARXIST HYPOTHESIS WITH A RICH VERSION OF A WEBERIAN HYPOTHESIS

  4. THIS CARTOON DRIVES HOME A SUPOSEDLY DISAPPEARING EFFECT OF OBAMA’S SYMBOLIC HANDICAP THE QUESTION OF THIS PRESENTATION: THEY DID, REALLY ?

  5. STATE RESULTS FOR 2004

  6. THE PREVIOUS MAP IS FOR 2004 AND VERY RED, WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING SINCE A REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE WON BUT THE NEXT ONE FOR 2008 IS STILL VERY RED, ALTHOUGH A DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE WON

  7. THE OUTCOME OF US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 2008

  8. THE MAPS WE JUST SAW ARE QUITE MISLEADING AND FAVOUR THE REPUBLICANS TOO MUCH: STATES DIFFER IN POPULATION DENSITY, WHEREAS DEMOCRACY MEANS ONE PERSON, ONE VOTE AND THE STATES WITH THE LOWEST POPULATION DENSITY ARE THE MOST REPUBLICAN THE NEXT MAP GIVES STATES A SIZE PROPORTIONATE TO THEIR NUMBER OF SEATS IN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE AND THAT NUMBER OF SEATS IS PROPORTIONATE TO THE NUMBER OF INHABITANTS OF A STATE

  9. ONCE MORE THE OUTCOME OF THE 2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS THIS MAP IS PAINTED IN BLUE, AND EVEN MORE IF THE COLOR THE BLUE-WHITE STATES BECOME BLUE

  10. WE NOW MOVE FROM DATA AT THE LEVEL OF STATES TO DATA AT THE LEVEL OF INDIVIDUALS INDIVIDUAL DATA OFTEN ALLOW FOR STRONGER TESTS OF HYPOTHESES WE LATER WIL STUDT DATA ON COUNTIES, A LEVEL IN BETWEEN STATES AND INDIVIDUALS

  11. YOU AS A YOUNG PERSON WILL LIKE THE NEXT GRAPH THE GRAPH IS TAKEN FROM THE DUTCH NEWSPAPER NRC-HANDELSBLAD: ACCORDING TO EXIT POLLS YOUNG PERSONS WERE THE MOST LIKELY TO VOTE FOR OBAMA

  12. BUT DO YOU AS A WHITE PERSON LIKE THE NEXT GRAPH?

  13. WHITES IN 2008 WERE MORE LIKELY TO VOTE FOR A WHITE REPUBLICAN THAN FOR A BLACK DEMOCRAT YET, THE NEXT CLIPPING FROM THE INTERNATIONAL HERALD TRIBUNE SAYS THAT THE USA IN THE 2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS JUMPED ITS LONG-STANDING COLOR LINE SO, DID THAT COUNTRY, REALLY?

  14. BACK TO THE DID-WHITES-VOTE-FOR-BLACKS QUESTION: GIVEN THE NRC-HANDELSBLAD GRAPH, COMPUTE THE BLACK/WHITE DEMOCRATIC/REPUBLICAN ODDS RATIO DOES THIS STATISTIC TELL ENOUGH ABOUT SURMOUNTING THE RACIAL BARRIER IN US POLITICS?

  15. NO, THAT DEPENDS UPON THE VALUE OF THIS ODDS RATIO IN THE 2004 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS COMPUTE THIS ODDS RATIO GIVEN THE FOLLOWING FOUR GRAPHS FOR 2008, 2004, 1992 and 1980 THE DATA WERE TAKEN FROM THE WEBSITE OF THE NEW YORK TIMES AND THE INTERNATIONAL HERALD TRIBUNE SINCE RECENTLY CALLED THE GLOBAL EDITION OF THE NEW YORK TIMES

  16. The n’s for computing percentages for race are 74, 13, 9 and 2, and those for religion 52%, 27, 2 and 40

  17. THE BLACK/WHITE DEMOCRATIC/REPUBLICAN ODDS RATIO FOR 2008 IS 30.4

  18. The n’s for computing percentages for race are 77, 11, 8 and 2, and those for religion 54, 27, 3 and 42

  19. THE BLACK/WHITE DEMOCRATIC/REPUBLICAN ODDS RATIO FOR 2004 IS 11.3

  20. The n’s for computing percentages for race are 87, 8, 2 and 1, and those for religion 56%, 21, 4 and 22

  21. THE BLACK/WHITE DEMOCRATIC/REPUBLICAN ODDS RATIO FOR 1992 IS 8.5

  22. The n’s for computing percentages for race are 89, 11, 2 and not avialable, and those for religion 51%, 27, 5 and not available

  23. THE BLACK/WHITE DEMOCRATIC/REPUBLICAN ODDS RATIO FOR 1980 IS 12.0

  24. IF THE ODDS RATIO IS A GOOD MEASURE FOR THE BLACK/WHITE POLITICAL RIFT THAT RIFT INCREASED IN THE SHORT RUN AND IN MEDIUM TERM ONE AND IN THE LONG RUN

  25. OF COURSE UPON CLOSER INSPECTION THE 2008 INCREASE IS THERE BECAUSE IN 2008 THE ODDS FOR BLACKS TO VOTE FOR A DEMOCRAT INCREASED MORE THAN THESE ODDS FOR WHITES BUT DID THE ODDS FOR CERTAIN WHITES TO VOTE FOR A DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE PERHAPS DECREASE?

  26. TOM-JAN MEEUS AND DIRK VLASBLOM OF NRC-HANDELSBLAD IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS MENTIONED THE BRADLEY EFFECT IN POLLS CERTAIN WHITES SAY THEY ARE GOING TO VOTE FOR A BLACK CANDIDATE BUT WHEN CASTING THEIR VOTE WHITES VOTE FOR A WHITE CANDIDATE

  27. THE LEAD OF OBAMA IN THE POLLS WAS A BIT LARGER THAN HIS LEAD IN THE ACTUAL ELECTION OUTCOME ACTUAL OUTCOME: 52 VERSUS 46 PERCENT POLLS: A DIFFERENCE OF 8 PERCENT BUT THAT IS A WEAK TEST OF THE BRADLEY EFFECT AND THE ALL-IMPORTANT QUESTION REMAINS UNANSWERED: ARE WHITE PERSONS LESS LIKELY TO VOTE FOR A BLACK THAN FOR A WHITE CANDIDATE ?

  28. WHERE IN THE USA MIGHT THE WHITE PERSONS LIVE WHO ARE LESS LIKELY TO VOTE FOR A BLACK CANDIDATE ?

  29. WHICH STATES OF THE USA WERE THE LAST ONES TO DO AWAY WITH RACIAL LAWS? TO WHICH STATES DID THE BILLY- HOLIDAY HYPOTHESIS APPLY MOST STRONGLY? WE ENCOUNTERED THE BILLY-HOLIDAY HYPOTHESIS IN THE FIRST BACHELOR YEAR DURING THE COURSE SOCIOLOGY’S MAIN QUESTIONS IT ALSO FEAUTURES IN THE CLIPPING WE NOW REREAD PINPOINT THE PERTINENT PHRASE !

  30. THE BILLY-HOLIDAY HYPOTHESIS INVOKES THE STRANGE FRUITS HANGING FROM SOUTHERN TREES MOST AFRO-AMERICANS (BLACKS, NEGROES, COLOURED PEOPLE) SINCE THE FOUNDING OF THE UNITED STATES WERE LEGALLY SLAVES

  31. AFTER THE CIVIL WAR AND THE LEGAL ABOLITION OF SLAVERY THE DISADVANTAGED POSITION OF BLACKS WAS MAINTAINED BY VARIOUS OTHER NEW RACIAL LAWS AND BY THE DENIAL OF DUE PROCESS IN COURT BY MOB LYNCHING THE LAST RACIAL LAWS WERE SCRAPPED IN THE 1960s, THE PERIOD OF THE CIVIL RIGHTS MOVEMENT

  32. SO, THE BILLY-HOLIDAY HYPOTHESIS APPLIES MOST STRONGLY TO THE SOUTHERN STATES OF THE USA THE STATES WHICH LOST THE CIVIL WAR OF THE EARLY 1860s

  33. THE SOUTHERN STATES ARE THE ONES THAT LOST THE 1861-1865 CIVIL WAR IN THE UNITED STATES THEY WERE CALLED CONFEDERATE STATES AND THEY ARE NAMED: ALABAMA, ARKANSAS, FLORIDA, GEORGIA, MISSISSIPPI, NORTH CAROLINA, SOUTH CAROLINA, TEXAS, VIRGINIA ALL THESE STATES HAD LAWS ALLOWING SLAVERY THE STATES THAT ALLOWED SLAVERY BUT STAYED WITHIN THE UNION DURING THE CIVIL WAR WERE: DELAWARE , KENTUCKY , MARYLAND , MISSOURI , WEST VIRGINIA

  34. FROM THE TIMES ATLAS OF WORLD HISTORY 1979

  35. DIGRESSION TO WHAT EXTENT DID LYNCHING OCCUR IN THE UNITED STATES AND WHERE DID IT OCCUR WITH THE HIGHEST RELATIVE FREQUENCY ? Two slides from Franklin E. Zimring The contradictions of American Capital Punishment Oxford, Oxford University Press Pages 90 and 91

  36. NOW WE ARE GOING TO TEST THE HYPOTHESIS THAT WHITE PERSONS IN THE SOUTH ARE LESS LIKELY TO VOTE FOR A BLACK CANDIDATE

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