PAX POPULI, PAX DEI

1. Ten Years Of Peace Polls In Comparative Perspective Colin Irwin University of Liverpool PAX POPULI, PAX DEI

2. Peace Polls • General Sir Rupert Smith ‘The Utility of Force’ – War amongst people’s • Not just diplomacy ‘behind closed doors’ • Inter Track and public diplomacy • 9 Peace Polls in Northern Ireland from 1996-2003 on issues of Procedure, Substance and Implementation • ‘Adversarial stakeholders’ agree questions and all aspects of research program • Emphasis on description over hypothesis testing • Every conflict different but same ‘Problems’ and ‘Solutions’ methods used with same scales in… • Macedonia, Bosnia Herzegovina, Kosovo, Kashmir, Sri Lanka, UK West and Muslim World, Israel and Palestine, Darfur Sudan and Arab Spring

3. Scales PROBLEMS: People from different communities often hold very different views about the causes of the conflict in Northern Ireland. Please indicate which ones you consider to be ‘Very Significant’ ‘Significant’, ‘Of Some Significance’, ‘Of Little Significance’ or ‘Of No Significance’ at all. SOLUTIONS: For each option you will be asked to indicate which ones you consider to be ‘Essential’, ‘Desirable’, ‘Acceptable’, ‘Tolerable’ or ‘Unacceptable’and for the purposes of this poll ‘Essential’, ‘Desirable’, ‘Acceptable’, ‘Tolerable’ and ‘Unacceptable’ mean: • ‘Essential’ - You believe this option is a necessary part of a lasting settlement and should be implemented under any circumstances. • ‘Desirable’ - This option is not what you would consider to be ‘Essential’, but you think this option, or something very similar to it, is a good idea and should be put into practice. • ‘Acceptable’ - This option is not what you would consider to be ‘Desirable’, if you were given a choice, but you could certainly ‘live with it’. • ‘Tolerable’ - This option is not what you want. But, as part of a lasting settlement for you would be willing to put up with it. • ‘Unacceptable’ - This option is completely unacceptable under any circumstances. You would not accept it, even as part of a lasting settlement.

4. Northern IrelandTable 1. Top 5 of 19 problems for Protestants and Catholics (1998)

5. Northern IrelandTable 2. Top 5 of 15 solutions for Protestants and Catholics in the Belfast Agreement (1999)

6. MacedoniaTable 3. Top 5 of 24 problems for Macedonians and Albanians(2002)

7. MacedoniaTable 4. Top 5 of 24 solutions for Macedonians and Albanians(2002)

8. Bosnia and HerzegovinaTable 5. Top 5 of 167 problems for Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats (2004)

9. Bosnia and HerzegovinaTable 6. Top 5 of 145 solutions for all of Bosnia and Herzegovina (2004)

10. KosovoTable 7. Top 5 from 148 problems for Kosovo Albanians and Kosovo Serbs(2005)

11. KosovoTable 8. Top 5 of 156 solutions for Kosovo Albanians and Kosovo Serbs(2005)

12. KashmirTable 9. Top 5 of 18 problems for Indian (IaK) and Pakistan (PaK) administered Kashmir (2008/9)

13. KashmirTable 10. Top 5 solutions for Indian (IaK) and Pakistan (PaK) administered Kashmir (2008/9)

14. Sri LankaTable 11. Top 5 of 51 problems for Sinhala and Tamils in 2008 during the war

15. Sri LankaTable 12. Top 5 of 71 solutions for Sinhala and Tamils in 2008 during the war

16. Sri LankaTable 13. Top 5 of 38 problems for Sinhala and Tamils in 2010 after the war

17. Sri LankaTable 14. Top 5 of 15 solutions for Sinhala and Tamils in 2010 after the war

18. The UK – West and Muslim WorldTable 15. Top 5 of 99 problems for All UK, Jewish UK and Muslim UK citizens (2006)

19. UK – West and Muslim WorldTable 16. Top 5 of 89 solutions for All UK, Jewish UK and Muslim UK citizens (2006)

20. Israel and PalestineTable 17. Top 5 of 15 problems of ‘substance’ for Israelis and Palestinians to negotiate (2009)

21. Israel and PalestineTable 18. Top 5 of 56 problems of ‘process’ for Israelis and Palestinians to resolve (2009)

22. Israel and PalestineTable 19. Top 5 of 70 solutions of ‘process’ for Israelis and Palestinians to resolve (2009)

23. Results for Northern Ireland constitutional question All Northern Ireland Catholic Protestant

24. Table 20. Per cent ‘unacceptable’ for agreements made or proposed in Northern Ireland, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Kashmir,Sri Lanka, Palestine and Israel

25. Table 21. Results for the Northern Ireland settlement ‘package’ tested as a whole in March 1998 and the referendum result of 22 May 1998 Question: If a majority of the political parties elected to take part in the Stormont Talks agreed to this settlement would you vote to accept it in a referendum? Question: If you said ‘Yes’ would you still accept these terms for a settlement even if the political party you supported was opposed to them? Referendum result

26. Table 22. Results for the Sri Lankan settlement ‘package’ tested as a whole in March 2010. Question: Would you support a package of constitutional reforms for Sri Lanka as outlined here? Question: If answer is ‘Yes’ - Would you support a package of constitutional reforms for Sri Lanka as outlined here if the political party you are closest to was against them?

27. Peace Poll Politics • Northern Ireland - Parties rebelled against governments • Macedonia – President welcomed poll but only one • Bosnia and Herzegovina – OSCE responsibility • Kosovo – AED Washington as part of UN negotiations • Cyprus – Too little too late and reluctant advisors • Kashmir - Little and poor follow up by RIIA • Sri Lanka – President not willing to share power • Israel and Palestine – Restricted to negotiating (not!) governments • Sudan/Egypt – Stopped by security agencies/legal restraints • West and Muslim World - Restricted by granting agencies

28. Table 23. Failed Middle East and Muslim World grant applications

29. Peace Polls and Conflict Resolution • Analysing and prioritising conflict problems and solutions in the light of prevailing public opinion. • Identifying appropriate local policies for both domestic and international intervention and providing expert advice on this basis to local and external actors engaged in the process of conflict resolution/prevention/management in the target state. • Gauging public support for those interventions across all sections of the community, including those opposed to them and their reasons. • Directing local and international resources at policy areas of greatest concern. • Engaging politicians and parties in programmes of discourse, research and pre-negotiation problem solving. • Testing policy options on given issues from across the political and communal spectrum to identify areas of common ground and potential compromise. • Engaging the public in ‘their’ peace process to give ‘them’ ownership and responsibility. • Stimulating public discourse through publications in the media. • Building broad popular consensus and support for a local peace process. • Continuing the engagement with conflict parties, individually and jointly, beyond polling to help them analyse, interpret and act upon polling results in the most appropriate manner in order to move forward. • Involving other NGOs, IGOs and appropriate states through the publication and targeted dissemination of detailed reports. • Maintaining the good offices of the international community to assure guarantees and post-resolution commitments. • Establishing a body of expert knowledge to facilitate more effective peace making, peacekeeping and peace building in general. • Re-engaging with the conflict parties at period intervals or as may be required after the conclusion of negotiations to identify the need for further polling in order to assist in renewed

30. Conclusion • Peace Polls and Conflict Resolution • The only fully completed peace poll program was when the negotiating parties were able to make the decision democratically • What to do? • Standard Setting (UN and WAPOR) • Monitoring • http://www.peacepolls.org