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State Revenue Estimating AUBER Fall Conference Sarah McLaughlin Emmans October 10, 2011

State Revenue Estimating AUBER Fall Conference Sarah McLaughlin Emmans October 10, 2011. Budget gaps FY2002 - 2013. $500+ billion!. Revenues bouncing back. -7 %. SOURCE: Pew analysis of U.S. Census data, 2011. Estimates off in 2009. Overall: 10.2 percent $49 billion.

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State Revenue Estimating AUBER Fall Conference Sarah McLaughlin Emmans October 10, 2011

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  1. State Revenue EstimatingAUBER Fall ConferenceSarah McLaughlin EmmansOctober 10, 2011

  2. Budget gaps FY2002 - 2013 $500+ billion!

  3. Revenues bouncing back -7 % SOURCE: Pew analysis of U.S. Census data, 2011

  4. Estimates off in 2009 Overall: 10.2 percent $49 billion www.pewcenteronthestates.org

  5. Fewer states getting it right www.pewcenteronthestates.org

  6. Errors over the business cycle www.pewcenteronthestates.org

  7. What’s behind the errors? Not processes… www.pewcenteronthestates.org

  8. What’s behind the errors? Volatility! www.pewcenteronthestates.org

  9. What’s behind the errors? www.pewcenteronthestates.org

  10. Consequences of volatility Total state spending dropped 11 percent from FY08 to FY10. www.pewcenteronthestates.org

  11. Volatile revenues SOURCE: Pew analysis of U.S. Census data, 2011

  12. Volatile revenues SOURCE: Pew analysis of U.S. Census data, 2011

  13. Dealing with volatility • “Keep up” with it • Refine assumptions • Decompose errors • More frequent estimates • Limit the impact • Reliance on volatile taxes • Reserves • Spending rules www.pewcenteronthestates.org

  14. Revenues bouncing back…to where? SOURCE: Pew analysis of U.S. Census data, 2011

  15. www.PewCenterontheStates.org

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