Africa in the Atlantic Basin Energy Systems

1. Africa in the Atlantic Basin Energy Systems Steve Thorne SouthSouthNorth Africa Washington DC 12th Sept 2012 Johns Hopkins

2. SouthSouthNorth Africa • Small not-for-profit company (+/- 30 prof. people) • African Sustainable Development entry point • Based in Cape Town working on energy, climate change and poverty in Africa • Main areas of work: Long Term Mitigation Planning (in South Africa and Latin America), CC research support in Africa, GHG mitigation accounting methodologies (incl. Suppressed Demand, Sustainable Development in mitigation and adaptn, New Market Mechanisms, NAMAs etc.) • Well networked in Africa civil society and international climate change community

3. Contents • Intro to SouthSouthNorth Africa • Africa – some economic and energy landscape • South Africa – gateway to Africa? • SA energy and climate change • Moving forward to Atlantic Basin exchanges

4. Political alignments • Regional disintegration (50+ countries) • Regional economic blocks – disjointed, weak • New African Union taking over from OAU • Part of G77 plus China (UN Block) • BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) global South Alignments • BASIC (Brazil, South Africa, India, China) linkage on climate change and technology co-operation

5. African economic activity • Minerals (including oil and coal) and some mineral beneficiation • Agriculture and agricultural processing • Power/energy • Transport • Services (not much outside of S Africa) • Tourism

6. Economic landscape • 800 million people, young population • Unprecedented growth 5%-6% over last 10 years… SA lower at around 3% • Increased external interest in mineral and natural resource extractive opportunities • Weak governance and regulation • Small tax base • Large unemployment - most involved in subsistence activities • Poor energy, water, and transport infrastructure • Rapid urbanisation

8. Africa and energy systems • Energy is a prerequisite for economic development • The key issue is access to modern energy services for livelihoods, industry and households • Africa has large renewable and fossil energy resources but weak energy governance • Fossil fuel taxation provide large income for National and City level income • Biomass dominates – low levels of electricity access • Opportunity: Leapfrog to low carbon modern energy

10. Water and hydro • Large water catchments small amount utilised for agriculture and power • Desert and drying (South-West Africa) • Poor trans-boundary catchment co-ordination • Adaptation to increased frequency and severity of flooding and drying as a result of climate change needs to be addressed

12. Renewables: Wind, solar, geothermal, biomass, small hydro • Large resources: solar intensity >6.5 kWh/m2/day • Wind on coast and higher areas • Biomass: large fuel wood, charcoal mainstay, agricultural and forestry residues – increasing programs of efficient cook stoves… • Geothermal resources in the Rift Valley exploitation in Kenya and Ethiopia…

13. South Africa and energy • 50 million people, GDP $10973/capita • Electricity >38GW installed capacity, oil 600 000bbl/day consumption • Dependence on coal >70% energy (>90% elec. From coal >30% petroleum from coal) – energy security issue… • Carbon tax introduced • Regulatory principles least-costs energy provision • Corporate culture - State owned and regulated elec. utility • Energy innovations: prepayment metering, Coal and Gas To Liquids, cheap coal, gas and hydro, etc. • Excellent solar, wind and waste to energy possibilities • Rapid urbanisation – housing and service backlogs

14. Unplanned and serviced urban sprawl characterises African cities

15. Current plans • Planning Commission vs Energy Dept policy standoff • Renewable energy target of 21.5GW by 2030 • Nuclear procurement 9.6GW by 2030 proposed • Renewable Energy – current REIPP (bids for 3.7GWs) • Energy Efficiency – Rebates for SWH, MWs and GWh • Affordable access (poverty tariff free <50kWh/monthand water 5kl/month) • Shale gas (fracking Karoo Basin)/offshore gas (west and east coasts) – shale gas pilot wells agreed

16. Climate change - mitigation • CDM 20 to 30 projects registered, why so low? • Climate Change Strategy White Paper (2011) - Carbon mitigation 34% reduction by 2020, and 40% by 2025 (435 million tonnes CO2e (2008)) • Large co-generation, IPP feed-in possibilities need liberating along with Regional Power Pool • Potential for natural/shale gas bridge to LCD • Large energy efficiency potential – 3GW over last 3 years just tip of iceberg (@$630/kW) • 1 million SWHs (2009 target) • Large CCS plans… to achieve “clean coal” vision

17. Energy “linkages” in the basin • Oil is exported from Angola (prod 2mbbl/day), Nigeria, Libya, Algeria (all prod +/-2.2mbbl/day), Equatorial Guinea, Congo, Tunisia, Gabon etc. • Coal exported from South Africa is shifting from the Atlantic to Indian markets. • Natural gas finds in the region of 200 tcf are increasingly under production facing looking east for markets. • Renewable energy technology, expertise and finance from Atlantic partners support South Africa’s targets and Saharan large solar potentials.

18. Moving Forward • Africa is the “last frontier” of natural resource development • Service perspective on energy policy to achieve least-cost energy services • Energy Systems – big investment in SA and in Sub-Saharan Africa on future energy infrastructure solar, hydro and nuclear • Institutional and regulatory changes to optimise energy service potentials • Climate systems – mitigation potential through leapfrog to low carbon development – big adaptation investment needed – access to climate finance • What African energy resources/technology/innovations can be contributed/obtained to/from the Atlantic Basin? • Expertise in regulation, policy, technical, overcoming similar challenges in low carbon modern energy access…