1 / 117

ASMC PDI 2010 Nashville, TN Workshop #57 X (you are here)

ASMC PDI 2010 Nashville, TN Workshop #57 X (you are here). Risk, Uncertainty, and Trouble: Escaping the RUT of Program Instability. Col Brian Shimel, CDFM Chief, Financial Analysis Air Force Space Command 2010. Risk, Uncertainty, and Trouble: Escaping the RUT of Program Instability .

lynda
Télécharger la présentation

ASMC PDI 2010 Nashville, TN Workshop #57 X (you are here)

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. ASMC PDI2010Nashville, TNWorkshop #57X (you are here)

  2. Risk, Uncertainty, and Trouble: Escaping the RUT of Program Instability Col Brian Shimel, CDFM Chief, Financial Analysis Air Force Space Command 2010

  3. Risk, Uncertainty, and Trouble: Escaping the RUT of Program Instability Col Brian Shimel, CDFM Chief, Financial Analysis Air Force Space Command 2010

  4. What is Behind the Curtain for this Lucky Audience? • Appropriations—The Hidden Assumptions • Purpose, Amount, and Time • Risk, Uncertainty & a bit of statistics • Examples in Operations, Acquisition • Risk, Uncertainty, and the Point Estimate • Defending the Budget • Acquisition: Why do we have to keep reforming it? • Ethics • 8 Step Problem Solving Process • Decision Support • Backups -- Sources & GAO Excerpts

  5. Appropriations • O&M--3400/3500 (prd of performance-1yr) • R&D – 3600 (2 yr) • Procurement -- 3010/3020/3080 (3 yr) • MILCON & MFH (5 yr) • Accept the $$, accept a “project” schedule • Base Year (BY) -- $B, $M, $K • Then Year (TY) composite rate (outlay profile) • 11% 42% 34% 9% 4%

  6. Risk • The Chance of an Unfavorable Event • Cost Risk – How Much? • Technical Risk – Will it Work? • Schedule Risk -- When? How long?

  7. UNCERTAINTY What should I say about it?

  8. UNCERTAINTY • Unknown, unpredicted variation around an expected value/outcome (a prediction of a future state) • Risk and uncertainty are situational and can be inverse, they can be related • Affected by expectations

  9. UNCERTAINTY U

  10. UNCERTAINTY Y

  11. UNCERTAINTY Y U

  12. A Distribution Dependent Independent

  13. A Distribution Dependent Independent

  14. A Distribution Dependent Independent

  15. A Distribution Dependent Independent

  16. A Distribution Dependent Independent

  17. Normal Mode = Median = Mean

  18. Small Measure of Dispersion

  19. Narrow, Normal, Certain

  20. Age of Children in Kindergarten

  21. Making Light Bulbs

  22. A-12

  23. Widely distributed, Normal, Varied

  24. Age or Height of People in Audience

  25. Right Skewed

  26. Mean > Median

  27. Right Skeweddispersion strongly favors one side Right

  28. Right Skewed Air Force Right

  29. Requirements BASELINE

  30. AAFES in Cheyenne Mt • August 2004; Mess Attendant contract • New proposal --$500K over budget • Dining Facilities in 2 locations • 3 people without separate rations • A captive clientele

  31. Narrow, Normal, Certain

  32. Narrow, Normal, CertainThe Point Estimate

  33. Normal but Not Certain

  34. Normal but Not CertainThe Point Estimate?

  35. 2 Different Processes

  36. 2 Different Owners

  37. 3 Different Processes

  38. What Do We Communicate?

  39. Program Bid, Baseline, Estimate

  40. The elephant in the room

  41. Making the Elephant Disappear

  42. This is our Story & we’re . .

  43. HQ Budget Drill

  44. Not Gone at the Working Level

  45. Accepted Risk

  46. Unexpected Risk

  47. Little Big Problem

  48. Taking on the Management Challenge

  49. Estimates –v- Reality

  50. Right Skewed—Mean is greater than the median

More Related