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Fiscal Policy

Fiscal Policy. Keynesian view Discretionary versus non-discretionary fiscal policy The automatic stabilizers Fiscal policy to close a contractionary gap. Fiscal policy to close an expansionary gap. Problems with fiscal policy Principles of taxation The Federal Deficit and the National Debt.

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Fiscal Policy

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  1. Fiscal Policy • Keynesian view • Discretionary versus non-discretionary fiscal policy • The automatic stabilizers • Fiscal policy to close a contractionary gap. • Fiscal policy to close an expansionary gap. • Problems with fiscal policy • Principles of taxation • The Federal Deficit and the National Debt

  2. Fiscal Policy The use of the taxing and spending powers of government to regulate aggregate expenditure, and thereby to stabilize the economy The economy needs to be stabilized. The economy can be stabilized. The economy should be stabilized. This is the Keynesian view

  3. Employment Act of 1946 This legislation established a responsibility for the federal government to promote “maximum employment, production, and purchasing power.”

  4. Discretionary versusnon-discretionary spending Discretionary fiscal policy is the deliberate manipulation of government purchases, taxation, and transfer payments to pursue macroeconomic goals such as full employment and price stability. The Bush tax stimulus package of 2008 and the Obama stimulus package of 2009 are examples of discretionary fiscal policy

  5. Automatic stabilizers Non-discretionary or “built-in” features of government spending and taxation that reduce fluctuations in disposable income, and thus consumption, over the business cycle. • Tax rates for various types of income are set by elected officials. Tax collections depend on the employment levels/incomes, profits, capital gains, retails sales, . . . • Elected officials establish eligibility requirements and support levels for needs-tested transfer payments—e.g., TANF, food stamps, and unemployment compensation. Actual government outlays for needs-tested transfer payments depend on (1) the number of persons eligible; and (2) the number of those eligible that actually file claims.

  6. As the economy enters a recession, federal revenues tend to decline while at the same time transfer payments rise. Thus recession brings about an automatic decline of net taxes (NT) Remember that: DI = Y - NT

  7. How the Automatic Stabilizers Work G, T Potential GDP T = TX - TR G Deficit Balanced budget at full-employment 0 Y1 Real GDP

  8. Keynesian Rx If a lack of aggregate expenditure is the problem, why not use the spending and taxing powers of the federal government to stimulate aggregate expenditure

  9. How Fiscal Policy Works AE AE2 AE1 G Full employment GDP 0 Y1 YFE Real GDP

  10. The preceding slide illustrates the type of expansionary fiscal policy that Keynesians recommend for recession. We will now use the AS-AD framework to illustrate contractionary fiscal policy.

  11. Modeling Contractionary Fiscal Policy Price Level Potential GDP AS AD2 AD1 0 Y1 Real GDP

  12. Using expansionary fiscal policyto close a contractionary gap YFis full-employment (potential) GDP. AE AE’ AE • Increase in G • Decrease in NT Y YF Real GDP (Y) Contractionary gap

  13. Problems with (discretionary) fiscal policy Policy lags Permanent income

  14. Principles of Taxation • Horizontal equity: Tax code should be written so that those in the same economic circumstances pay the same amount in taxes. • Vertical equity: Tax code should be written so that those in different economic circumstances should pay an unequal amount in taxes. • Benefits received principle: Those who derive more benefits from government programs should pay more taxes.

  15. Definitions • Taxable income: Gross income - income exempt from taxes. Example: For single filers who use the 1040EZ: • Average tax rate (ATR): Tax payments as a percent of taxable income. • Marginal tax rate (MTR): The tax rate applied to the last dollar of taxable income.

  16. Definitions, continued • Progressive tax: The proportion of taxable income taken in taxes increases as taxable income increases. • Regressive tax: The proportion of taxable income taken in taxes decreases as taxable income increases. • Proportional tax: The proportion of taxable income taken in taxes remains constant as taxable income increases.

  17. Needy Affluent The tax code is a tool for income redistribution By making the tax structure “progressive,” governments can make the after-tax distribution of income more equitable (or even).

  18. Federal personal Income Tax rates Under the 1993 Tax Reform Act (Married couple filing jointly)

  19. Average and Marginal Tax Rates under the Tax Reform Act of 1993 (for a couple with 2 children)

  20. Tax Brackets for 2003 under the 2001 Tax Reform Act Source : Wall Street Journal

  21. Quick Facts about President Bush’s Tax Bill • The 39.6% tax rate reduced to 33% • The 36% tax rate reduced to 33% • The 31% rate reduced to 25% • The 28% rate reduced to 25% • The current 15% bracket is retained over most of its range • A new 10% bracket applies to the lowest ¼ of 15% range. • Maximum rate on capital gains reduced from 28 to 15 percent. President Bush comments (wav)

  22. Fun Fact: Of the $477 billion in federal tax cuts over 10 years, 52 percent go to the top 1 percent of households (average income: $343,000). Source: Center for Tax Justice The Bush tax cuts are scheduled to expire in 2010. Senator McCain favors renewing them—even though he voted against the Bush tax bill in 2001. Senators Clinton and Obama support raising marginal rates on capital gains and also for high income families.

  23. Why a sales tax is regressive Assume a 7.13 percent excise tax on groceries, gasoline, cigarettes, and liquor Moral of the story: Low income families tend to spend a greater proportion of their income on items subject to excise taxes. Hence excise taxes tend to be regressive.

  24. The Arkansas state sales tax on groceries was reduced from 6 percent to 3 percent effective July 1, 2007

  25. In the case of a federal deficit, the Treasury must borrow. The national debt is the accumulated borrowing of the federal government in all previous fiscal years, minus what has been repaid

  26. For updated information, check the National Debt Clock

  27. Is a large national debt a bad thing? • Arguments against a large national debt include: • The “burden on future generations” argument. • A large national debt means that a significant share of federal spending must be allocated for interest payments—leaving less for other priorities. • A large national debt makes the U.S. too dependent on foreign financial inflows. • Federal borrowing “crowds out” private sector borrowing units—i.e., firms and households.

  28. “[W]e (the U.S.) owe $5.7 trillion in debt and if we don’t pay it off, our children and our grandchildren are going to have to.” Congressman Marion Berry, in a speech to the Jonesboro Lions Club on April 16, 2001.

  29. Interest payments as a Percent of Federal Expenditures (Annual) www.economagic.com

  30. Hall & Liberman Rule-of-Thumb As long as the debt grows by the same percentage as nominal GDP, the ratios of debt to GDP will remain constant. In this case, the government can continue to pay interest on its rising debt without increasing the average tax rate in the economy.

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