A multi-scale trans-disciplinary vulnerability assessment

1. A multi-scale trans-disciplinary vulnerability assessment Don Morgan Ecosystem Protection and Sustainability Branch Ministry of Environment & Dave Daust BV Research Centre Future Forest Ecosystems Scientific Council (FFESC) seminar series – December 04, 2012

2. FFESC Purpose Increase our understanding of how forest and range ecosystems can be expected to change over time as a result of climate change. Develop projections to forecast those changes. Develop methods of adapting forest management in response to climate change that will help reduce the impacts on forest and range ecosystems and productivity. Research the economics and social consequence to BC of the changing forest and range ecosystems, and of the effects of the proposed adaptation options.

3. FFESC Project Objectives • Part 1 – Vulnerability Assessment: • Management Unit Vulnerability Assessment • Management Unit Adaptation Policy • Multi-scale Vulnerability Assessment - linking Provincial and Regional scales – barriers and opportunities • Part 2 – Community Adaptive Capacity: • Livelihood Assessment - people, resources, the environment and the changing climate

4. Part 1: Vulnerability Assessment Dave Daust pricedau@telus.net

5. Outline • Overview of change • Vulnerability Assessment in the Nadina • What’s vulnerable? • What can we do to adapt?

6. Mitigation success Copenhagen Diagnosis 2009.

7. Projected warming by 2100 3.4°C > 1961-1990 baseline (likely range 2.0 – 5.4°C) A2 emission scenario (IPCC 2007) Prince George + 3.7 = Kelowna (Prov BC. State of British Columbia’s Forests 3rd Edition) Northern Hemisphere Temperature Spittlehouse 2008

8. Rate of warming • 50 X faster than after ice ages (last million years) • Faster than migration rates of plants

9. Vulnerability Assessmentin the Nadina

10. First: What’s vulnerability Locateli et al. 2010. Forests and adaptation to climate change: challenges and opportunities (Ch 2). In Forests and Society—Responding to Global Drivers of Change

11. The Nadina Approach • Exposure - climate envelope shifts • Management issues - workshops • Sensitivities – expert workshops • Adaptive capacity • Management responses • Barriers

12. Vulnerability Assessment Exposure to climate Sensitivity of Forests Max potential impacts to FRPA values Potential management responses Natural adaptation Barriers to adaptation Likely impacts to FRPA values

13. Maximum Potential Impact(what might happen in short term) Exposure ∆ temp ∆ seasons ∆ rain ∆ snowfall ∆ ice Sensitivity Species tolerances Species competitive advantage Impact Extirpation or decimation Invasive species Forest structure ∆ Regime shift Hydrological regime Disturbance regime

14. Study Area

15. Climate Scenarios

17. BEC Climate Envelopes Slightly warmer (1.7C) Warmer and wetter (2.6C) Current Much warmer (3.5C)

18. BEC Envelopes (zones)

19. Sensitivity: Biodiversity

20. Low similarity = high stress Similarity (area weighted mean Bray-Curtis similarity) of plant communities associated with current versus projected variants.

21. Lifeform: SBSdk vs. IDFxh2

22. Geographic (migration) Distance SBSdk SBSmc2 ESSFmc Slightly warmer (+1.7 °C) Warmer & wetter (+2.6 °C) Much warmer (+3.5 °C)

23. Sensitivity: Trees and timber

24. Sensitivity: Disturbance Agents 5-10% of THLB ? 1

25. Sensitivity: Timber •  tree growth: 10 to 25% •  unsalvaged loss: 10 to 30% = Reduced AAC = High salvage volumes

26. Sensitivity: Hydrology

27. So What’s Vulnerable? Water Salmon Communities (Fire) Timber

28. Ecosystems & Livelihoods

29. What can we do to adapt? Learnings & Recommendations

30. Limited set of responses • Conservation network • Unroaded areas • Invasive spp control • Avoid sensitive sites • Alter harvesting of sensitive sites • Control insects and disease • Harvest susceptible stands • Fertilize • Shorter rotations • Assisted migration • Influence succession • Diversify regen. stands • Rapid site recovery • Retain down wood • ECA • Improve infrastructure • Limit water use • Manage warm water sources

31. Approach to adaptation • Reduce sensitivity • Limit damage • Enhance recovery

32. A/C. Reduce sensitivity/enhance recovery • Limit total ecological stress • BC-scale conservation strategy • Cumulative Effects Assessment • Precautionary approach • Promote diversity • Guide ecological transformation • E.g., assisted migration • Upgrade infrastructure • Harvest susceptible stands

33. B. Limit Damage • Monitor • Salvage quickly • Control fire • Control insects, disease and invasive plants • Increase diversity and flexibility of timber processing

34. Vulnerability scale No management Potential Management response

35. Barriers to Adaptation • Lack of concern • Lack of knowledge • Lack of planning capacity • Lack of mandate/resources • Restrictive legislation & policy - X XX XXX X to XXX

36. 1. Lack of Concern • Not an issue regionally • May be an issue provincially

37. 2. Lack of Knowledge • Not an issue if you conduct a VA • Uncertainty is high but appropriate responses are generally clear

38. 3. Lack of planning capacity • Public plans out of date • Inertia of existing plans • Operational trials needed to support new planning

39. 4. Lack of mandate/resource • Can’t devote time to understand implications of climate change • Government does not have the primary responsibility for strategies • Companies will not invest in more expensive or more risky strategies

40. 5. Restrictive leg & policy • Counterproductive reforestation rules • Public objectives no longer reflect current issues (i.e., adaptation and mitigation) • Strategies unable to achieve objectives under climate change

41. Or? Sustainability ≠ Arrogance + ignorance

42. Removing Barriers • Provincial government awareness (business case) • Regional learning programs • Government climate change adaptation staff • Enduring knowledge base • Revise values and objectives • FRPA and LRMP (SLUP) • Revise strategies • Legislation and policy • Create incentives for companies

43. Increase societal resilience • Understand risk • Fire • Water shortages • Forest industry collapse • Fishing industry collapse • Enhance community independence • Enhance support within communities • Increase economic diversity

44. Part 2: Community Adaptive Capacity Don Morgan Ecosystem Protection and Sustainability Branch Ministry of Environment

45. Livelihood Research Methods Climate change impacts and local forest resource system vulnerability. Scenario planning workshop held with natural and social scientists and community. Sustainable livelihood community workshop. Application of Integral Theory to Livelihood Assessment. Summary of livelihoods and impacts using a structured approach.

46. Livelihood Assessment • Objective - apply livelihood methods to evaluate linkages among people, resources, the environment and the changing climate.

47. Livelihood Definition Chambers and Conway (1992) “A livelihood comprises the capabilities, assets (including both material and social resources) and activities required for a means of living. A livelihood is sustainable when it can cope with and recover from stresses and shocks and maintain or enhance its capabilities and assets both now and in the future, while not undermining the natural resource base.”

48. Livelihood Assessment

49. Livelihood Assets Natural capital – natural resource stocks (soil, water, air, forests, etc.) and environmental services (hydrological cycle, etc). Financial capital – the capital base (cash, credit/debt, savings, etc.). Human capital –skills, knowledge, ability to labour and good health. Social capital – social resources (networks, social relations, affiliations, associations, organizations, etc.). Physical capital – infrastructure (roads, railways, water, schools, manufacturing facilities, etc.).

50. The Past - Past Peoples