April 5, 2007

1. Regional Florida Catastrophic Planning:Focus on South Florida, including the Herbert Hoover Dike Region April 5, 2007

2. Welcome • Carla Boyce, Information and Planning Chief, Florida Division of Emergency Management • Rand Napoli, Lead Planner, IEM

3. Overview Florida Catastrophic Planning Project Goals Phase 1: To develop a regional response and recovery plan for the counties and communities surrounding Lake Okeechobee in the event of a Herbert Hoover Dike (HHD) failure. Phase 2: To develop a regional response and recovery plan, along w/decision making tools/matrices for a catastrophic hurricane impacting South Florida.

4. Scenario-Driven Planning Workshops

5. Scenario-Driven Planning • The scenario sets a “catastrophic bar” to establish the necessary capacity of the plans. • Participants at all levels of government contribute to the planning solutions. • Operational knowledge and experience make the resulting plans more viable for response and recovery activities.

6. Overview of Florida Catastrophic Planning Project Purpose • Planning Team will assist the State in a host of planning activities • Direct technical assistance to target counties • Conduct workshops, meetings & research • Coordinate w/State, local, tribal, federal, private enterprise, non-profit and Federal stakeholders • Ensure a “local up” approach that results in regionally sound, comprehensive and cohesive planning efforts

7. Overview of Florida Catastrophic Planning Project Purpose • Develop decision matrices & identify resource shortfalls that can focus additional planning activities • Examine policies and procedures to identify challenges to coordinated response and recovery activities

8. Comprehensive & Cohesive Planning • County Annexes • Comprehensive Emergency Management Plans • Herbert Hoover Dike Annexes • Catastrophic Plan Annexes • Regional Annexes • HHD Annex • Catastrophic Annex • Regional Evacuation Studies • Behavioral Studies • Vulnerability Assessment • Statewide Sheltering Plans Up Next - Rand Napoli, Lead Planner

9. Local Planning Begun Tribal Plans Tribal CEMP Up Next - Rand Napoli, Lead Planner

10. Technical Assistance • 2 member FEMA team • 1 Technical Lead • 7 member Florida team • 3 working w/Tallahassee • 4 assigned to South Florida

11. Workshops & Exercises • November 2006 – HHD Kickoff • February 2007 – Regional Workshop joining Phase 1 and Phase 2 • March 15, 2007– Agency Head & Emergency Coordinating Officer Project Orientation • April 2007 – State-Level Workshop

12. Workshops & Exercises • May 2007 – Statewide Hurricane Exercise • June 2007 – Regional Workshop in Miami-Dade (local focus) • Fall 2007 – State-Federal Workshop • Winter 2007/2008 – Second Regional Workshop • Spring 2008 – Target Completion & Preparation for Statewide Exercise in May of ‘08 Up Next – Carla Boyce, Plans Chief – FDEM

13. The Scenario – Hurricane OnoCoordinated Research, Realistic, Comprehensive

15. Planning Scenario – Path of Hurricane Ono

19. Concerns • Inland Flooding from high rainfall totals • Storm Surge Cities of Okeechobee, Pahokee, Belle Glade, South Bay, Moore Haven, Clewiston, Brighton Indian Reservation • Canal and River Flooding Port Mayaca, St. Lucie Canal, Kissimmee River, Caloosahatchee River

23. Herbert Hoover Dike Breaches

24. Projected ConsequencesCoordinated Analysis,Guided by Subject Matter Experts

25. Herbert Hoover Dike Consequences • The damage in this discussion results only from breaches of the Herbert Hoover Dike (HHD). This discussion does not consider the damage caused by wind, which is covered in the section on The Broader South Florida Scenario, or the affects of lake surge or precipitation • Approximately 130 homes are flooded and some 600 more are surrounded by water as a result of the failure of the S80 structure in Martin County. The latter homes are cut off from normal access routes, making access to supplies or emergency services more difficult.

26. Herbert Hoover Dike & S80 Consequences From Breaches and Structure Failure ONLY • In Reach 1 (Palm Beach County), the residences of approximately 4,700 households are flooded to a depth of five to thirteen feet. • In Reach 2 (Glades, Hendry, and Palm Beach County), the homes of approximately 4,800 households are within the area that would be covered by one to six feet of water.

27. Herbert Hoover Dike Consequences Law Enforcement Facilities

28. Herbert Hoover Dike Consequences Fire Departments

29. Herbert Hoover Dike Consequences Utilities (Gas/Electric)

30. Planning Scenario – Path of Hurricane Ono

31. Consequence Projections Percent of Building Stock by Wind Damage Category

32. Consequence Projections Number of Buildings by Wind Damage Category

33. Consequence Projections Percent of Building Stock by Wind Damage Category

34. Consequence Projections Number of Buildings by Wind Damage Category

35. Consequence Projections Number of Buildings by Wind Damage Category Up Next – Rand Napoli, Lead Planner

36. South Florida Catastrophic PlanningWorkshops

37. Regional Catastrophic Planning Workshop June 2007 Regional Workshop • Involve local, tribal, state, federal, private industry, and other non-governmental members of the emergency management community. • Continue the process of developing consistent regional plans for a catastrophic hurricane event in South Florida, including a significant breach of the Herbert Hoover Dike.

38. Workshop Structure • Scenario-driven planning workshop • not an exercise • Worked toward consistent planning assumptions, issues and constraints • Continuous breakout rooms • Planning Team • Unified Command • Provided clarification, addressed conflicts, identified common threads & gaps to bring back to State level workshop • Morning plenary briefings • Allowed visibility to all participants on common issues & needs • Allowed input across disciplines • Identified need for additional participation from other disciplines/stakeholders Up Next – Carla Boyce

39. Decision Matrices & Resource Shortfalls

40. Decision Matrices & Resource Shortfalls • Assess required capabilities based on Catastrophic Scenario • What do we need to do? • Develop scalable and adaptable methods, formulas, or matrices that indicate the quantity and type of assets needed to meet the capability • What do we need to do it?

41. Decision Matrices & Resource Shortfalls • Determine available resources within local, regional or States inventories, including pre-disaster contracts • What do we already have? • Establish protocols & policies that clearly articulate how to meet both required capabilities and fill gapsand identify resource limitations • How are we going to get our hands on what we have, and how will we get more?

42. Decision Matrices & Resource Shortfalls • Integrate with other scenario-based resource planning schemes across disciplines • What does this mean for the rest of the response and recovery activities? • Sustain the planning process to facilitate updates and changes

43. The Word Problem • SF impacted by a Category 5 Hurricane making landfall 35mi N of Miami producing upwards of 22” of rainfall in and north of Lake Okeechobee. Winds and surge damage or destroy nearly 700,000 structures. Note: this doesn’t include the Counties to the North West of Lake Okeechobee where the storm exits FL as a Category 2. • Winds from the storm leave large amounts of debris in canals used by SFWMD to control water movement in South Florida making it difficult to impossible to reduce flood waters impacting the environment, economy, citizens and visitors. Flood waters are expected to remain for as many as 22 days – or more

44. Key Assumptions • Estimated Population – 6,358,934 • 2,867,295 people are projected to evacuate in advance of the storm • 796,214 people are expected to seek public shelter (10’s of miles) • 3,826,822 homes will be destroyed • Up to 3,000,000 customers will be w/o power from Miami-Dade to Indian River on the East and Manatee/Sarasota on the West

45. Pick ONE – Break It Down • Pick ONE decision point and break it down • Clearly identify the GOAL • Identify the CRITICAL criteria/information needed on which to base a decision • Document what you know from past experience • Calculate/Adjust/Recalculate/Cross Check • Repeat as necessary • Don’t forget LOGISTICAL support for your staff, mutual aid assets, volunteers Up Next - Rand Napoli, Lead Planner

46. Pick ONE – Break It Down • Pick ONE decision point and break it down • Clearly identify the GOAL • Complete Primary Search & Rescue in 24 Hrs • Identify the CRITICAL criteria/information needed on which to base a decision • # Strike Teams • # of hours/day – operational period • # of structures damaged or destroyed

47. Pick ONE – Break It Down • Document what you know from past experience • Can’t safely search at night • How many workers to safely search a structure • How much time to safely search a structure • Deployment time – (notification to operational) • Calculate/Adjust/Recalculate/Cross Check • Repeat as necessary • Don’t forget LOGISTICAL support for your staff, mutual aid assets, volunteers

48. Example – Search and Rescue

49. Examples - SAR

50. Pick ONE – Break It Down • Pick ONE decision point and break it down • Clearly identify the GOAL • Provide 3 Hot Meals/day for survivors in impacted area • Identify the CRITICAL criteria/information needed on which to base a decision • How many survivors remained in the area • Approximately 4.3 Million • Quantity of food/meal • How many staff required to prepare/deliver