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Medical Health Workforce Into the Future

Medical Health Workforce Into the Future

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Medical Health Workforce Into the Future

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  1. Medical Health WorkforceInto the Future DrRuth Kearon: Clinical Advisor, Information, Analysis and Planning Jane Austin: Program Manager, Clinical Training Reform Health Workforce Australia HETI Prevocational Medical Education Forum Novotel Brighton Beach NSW, 10 August 2012

  2. Health Workforce 2025 • Health Workforce 2025: Doctors, Nurses and Midwives • Volumes 1 and 2

  3. Health Workforce 2025 • Released by Australia’s Health Ministers on 27 April • For the first time, it paints a picture of national workforce planning projections for doctors, nurses and midwives • It contains detailed modelling on workforce supply, demand, training and distribution

  4. RATIONALE: Why did we do it? • To quantify the current health workforce • To provide an impetus and consensus for reform by: • gathering the evidence • showing the need for action • modelling the impacts of various policy options • To embark on practical reform through collaboration

  5. METHODOLOGY: How did we do it? • National approach • National datasets • Scenario modelling of various policy options: • productivity • workforce retention • higher education and training • health service demand • supply of professionals, including self-sufficiency, graduate numbers, immigration

  6. METHODOLOGY:How robust is it? • Some methodological limitations: • data used was collected for a more general purpose and was self-reported • difficulties in accounting for the impact of external factors, such as rapid technological change • In the future: • improved future data quality expected from national health professional regulation and the forthcoming HWA National Statistical Resource • an iterative process – ongoing data collection and modelling with annual updates of projections

  7. FINDINGS:What did we learn? • Short term: supply of doctors stable BUT a maldistribution across Australia • By 2016: insufficient specialist training places for projected graduates • Dependence on immigration creates ongoing risk

  8. FINDINGS:Medical workforce results

  9. FINDINGS:What did we learn? GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION • Geographic distribution of the workforce remains a significant concern, in particular for doctors • Vital that the projected increases in the supply of doctors are distributed to where they are most needed • Current policy settings not capable of achieving desired shifts in distribution

  10. FINDINGS:Geographic distribution of doctors

  11. FINDINGS:What did we learn? IMMIGRATION • The current health professional workforce in Australia is highly dependent on immigration for doctors • In 2009-10, 1,551 permanent visas and 3,190 temporary visas were granted to doctors • Impact on geographic distribution • Changes to temporary migration can significantly impact the short-term need for health professionals by managing short-term fluctuations in supply • Measures to improve self-sufficiency will require concurrent additional effort in training and workforce reform

  12. FINDINGS:What did we learn? TRAINING • By 2016: insufficient specialist training places for projected graduates • NOW: • insufficient internships for newly graduating doctors • insufficient employment opportunities for newly graduating nurses • Training must become more efficient while maintaining Australia’s high-quality training standards • Projected training requirements are dependent on policy choices made in other areas • Training needs can be significantly lowered through workforce innovation and reform

  13. FINDINGS:Training of doctors

  14. FINDINGS:Training of doctors

  15. FINDINGS:Training of doctors

  16. CONCLUSIONS:What do we know ? • REFORM IS VITAL Business-as-usual is not an option • Australia’s projected health workforce needs require joint action between governments, the health sector, and the education and training sector • There is no silver bullet – we need a multi-pronged approach: supply, education, training, immigration, productivity, demand, role re-design, workforce capacity… • We need to continually improve data available to deliver the best possible workforce planning

  17. OPTIONS: What can we do? • HW2025 presents an alternative, sustainable view of the future, based on policy choices available to governments • Four areas of reform are broadly considered: • workforce and workplace reform to boost productivity, flexibility and retention • geographical distribution • training (specifically planning, organisation, reform and capacity) • immigration

  18. OPTIONS: What can we do? • Innovation and reform can have a significant effect on the anticipated demand for doctors through: • small changes in productivity • national coordination of the training pipeline to ensure graduates have a postgraduate training pathway • Broader reform, including in training, must accompany any move to decrease the historic high levels of immigration - otherwise, anticipated supply will not meet demand

  19. Where to from here? • Collaborative effort - HWA will work with governments, employers, professions, specialist colleges, the higher education and training sector, and consumers • Now working with AHMAC to develop an implementation plan for consideration by Health Ministers • Developing Volume 3 of this work that will look in detail at the medical specialties