Setting Renewable Energy Heating and Cooling Targets for 2020/2030 in Europe

1. WP3: Fixing RES-H/C targets Lukas Kranzl, Andreas Müller RES-H Policy Meeting, March 2009

2. Structure of the discussion • Objectives, time table, task structure and methodology of this WP • Structure of the target report • Preliminary results • AT (AT, Upper Austria, Styria?) • GR • LT • NL • PL • UK • Discussion and next steps

3. WP3 - objective • Determine options for 2020/2030 RES-H/C targets and their trajectories in the seven target countries/regions. • Involve national stakeholder and in particular policy makers in that process • Split up the target into different energy sources, technologies and sectors • Assist member states in setting up sector-specific targets in the national action plans.

4. Methodology RES H/C targets Revised targets Stakeholder policy processtarget setting Policy workshops Data basis and scientific ground for target setting Economic modeling results Existing scenarios Top-downapproach Bottom-upapproach Policyassessment WP 3 WP 4

5. Task overview • 3.1. Analysis of existing RES-H/C scenarios and potentials • 3.2. Top-down assessment of RES-H/C targets • 3.3. Bottom-up approach to determine RES-H/C targets • 3.4. Production of target reports • 3.5. Stakeholder dialogue

6. Timetable • To discuss: does the timetable fit to the national progress of the renewable action plans? • Suggestion: stick to this time frame and include the target setting issue also in the further workshops (of WP4) and maybe revise target based on WP4 results and workshop discussions

7. Deliverables / Output • Target report for each region (~ 50 pages each, national language and english)Month 10 (July 2009) • Synthesis report of consultation process for each region (~10 pages each, national language and english)Month 9 (June 2009) • Documentation of the consultation workshops (~5 pages each, national language and english)Month 10 (July 2009)

8. Task 3.1 existing scenarios and potentials • Review of regional / national / European studies • Output: Dataset to assess possible RES-H/C market developments (BAU/policy scenarios?)

9. Task 3.1 previously scheduled steps • Each partner from target regions provides a list of relevant regional / national / (European) literature and scenarios with a few words describing the content (14 November 08) • EEG (together with ISI) provides consolidated list and first draft of data structure (28 November 08) • Each partner fills in scenario data into data structure (16 January 09) • Documentation of literature / scenario review for the target report (each partner, end of January 09) • All partners comment on the outcomes of task 3.1 (end of February 09) • Current situation: only results from a few partners up to now => presentations and discussions later today

10. Task 3.1 methodology • Structure: file “RES-H WP3 literature overview data template.xls” • Basic Structure for literature/scenario review: Time series for various scenarios and/or potentials: • RES-H/C generation by energy sources (biomass, solar, geothermal, ambient heat) • RES-H/C generation by sectors (residential (single dwelling, multiple dwelling, …), service sector, public buildings, industry, …) • RES-H/C generation by technologies (type of biomass boilers, type of solar collectors …) • Energy demand and efficiency improvements (building insulation), if available • Documentation of assumptions, methodology, background data

11. Task 3.2 top-down • Idea: in Task 3.1. different studies with different methodologies are the basis for the analysis. In this task: common methodology from a single model. • Green-X model runs include scenarios for RES-H/C in each member state until 2020. • Use previous model runs of Green-X to get reference scenarios for RES-H/C development.

12. Task 3.2 Working progress / next steps • Presentation of Green-X results (EEG, ISI, later today) • Document Green-X results in the target report (first draft March 09, final version for the meeting in May 09) • Discussion with partners (March, April 09)

13. Task 3.2 Top-down Exemplary Green-X results for EU-27 Source: Green-X Simulations, Futures-E, Scenario: „strengthened policies“ (~20% 2020 target scenario) (in this way results will be presented for each target region)

14. Task 3.2 methodology Mid-term (up to 2020)realisable potentialsin year n& corresponding costs for RES at country level by RES technology (subdivided into several bands) costs band 3 … n+1 The Green-X approach:Dynamic cost-resource curves&a detailed energy policyrepresentation band 2 band 1 potential Technology diffusion (‘S-curve’)(non-economic barriers by technology/country) Potential Technological change((global) learning curves by technology) Cost (efficiency) costs Realisable yearly potentialsin year n potential Energy policy (energy prices, RES support) e.g. Feed-in tariffs, Investment incentives, Tendering schemes, Quotas with tradable green certificates costs PFIT Deploymentin year nand corresponding costs & benefits potential

15. Green-X results EU-27„strengthened policy“ RES share IMPACT OF TOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION!!! RES development

16. Green-X results EU-27 „strengthened policy“ RES-H development (sectors) RES-H development (technologies)

17. Task 3.3. bottom-up • Idea: carry out a detailed bottom-up estimation of achievable potentials (including diffusion restrictions) as a basis for the target setting process • Synergetic benefit: set up data base for modelling in WP4 • For buildings: integration of the results in the simulation tool INVERT • For industrial processes: ECN- RES-HC model

18. Task 3.3 Working progress • Structure for regional/national data requirement (EEG, (ISI), 28 November 08) (ECN???) • Data collection (each target region partner, January 09)(partly completed, partly not yet started?!) • Suggestion for default data (investment costs, energy prices etc) by EEG, ECN, ISI April 09; to be discussed until meeting in May • Previous schedule: Integration of regional data into models INVERT and RES-HC model (EEG, ISI, ECN, March 09)Revised schedule: Structured data base of bottom up data and detailed analysis results until meeting in May (EEG, ISI, ECN together with partners) • Result documentation (EEG, (ISI), ECN, May / June 09)

19. Task 3.3 Methodology • Solar thermal: • Available roof area • Solar radiation data • Achievable solar fractions for different applications • Biomass: • Available biomass potentials (e.g. EEA 2006) • Penetration rates in different types of buildings and applications • Heat pumps: • Buildings with high efficiency and low temperature heating systems • Number of those buildings (currently and dynamic) • (Large scale industrial heat pumps: penetration rates) • For all systems: max. diffusion rates and current state

20. Task 3.3 Data requirement Detailed data requirement in the files: • RES-H bottom-up data requirement.doc • RES-H bottom-up data template.xls (building data)

21. Task 3.3 Data requirement Industry

22. Task 3.4 target reports • Draft report: Synthesis of literature/scenario review (3.1), top-down (3.2) and bottom-up (3.3) • Final report include outcomes of the stakeholder dialogue • Target reports include technology and sector specific targets

23. Task 3.4 working progress • Draft target report structure (EEG, November 08) • Literature review chapter (each target country partner, March 09) • Green-X results (EEG/ISI: draft in March, final in May 09) • Draft target report (all target country / region partners, April 09) • Comments of all partners on draft target reports (May 09) • Final target reports (all target country / region partners, July 09)

24. Task 3.4 target report Structure for the target report: • Methodology • Review of existing scenarios and literature • Top-Down-Approach: Green-X results • Bottom-up-approach • General approach and methodology • Solar thermal • Biomass heating • Geothermal • Conclusions from WP4 (optional) • Comparative analysis of literature, top-down and bottom-up approach • Stakeholder discussion process • Synthesis: RES-H/C targets • References • Annexes

25. Target report structure: Do you agree? We are all supposed to use these country-target reports in the stakeholder consultation and the workshop(s)!

26. Task 3.5 stakeholder dialogue • Stakeholder consultation: input / comments on findings of tasks 3.1, 3.2, 3.3 and draft target report (web-based questionnaire) • Consultation workshops in each target region: reports on the consultation and the draft reports will be circulated at least 14 days before the workshop • Target groups: • Policy makers (including representatives of national action plans for RES-directive) • Energy agencies • Companies / associations representing RES-H/C technologies • Researchers

27. Task 3.5 working progress • Stakeholder information (all partners November 08) • Preparation of questionnaire (has it really to be web based?!?) • Draft structure: EEG, April 09 • Web implementation: OEKO/CRES?, Mid of April 09 • Regional specification: each target region partner, End of April 09 • Consultation process: each target region partner, May 09 • Synthesis report of consultation: each target region partner, Mid of June 09 • Consultation workshops: each target region partner, June 09 (July 09)

28. Preliminary results: AT (Styria???)

29. AT – Styria (- Upper Austria) Clarification of the role of the different regional levels: • Stakeholder consultation: Austrian level considering in particular Styrian stakeholders, too • Target Workshop June 09: national level • Workshop end of 09 / beginning 10 in Styria: target setting + qualitative policy analysis • Workshop June 10 national level: combining qualitative and quantitative analyses of policy instruments • WP 2 country reports: national with Styrian specific parts • WP 3 target report: national level (because renewable action plan is on the national level), maybe short discussion regarding Styria • WP 4 working document qualitative analysis of instruments: national or regional level, depending on the type of instrument (difference to Upper Austria??? => common report for whole Austria on the national and regional level?) • WP4 summary quantitative assessment policy options: focused on the national level with some discussions regarding Styria

30. Green-X results AT „strengthened policy“ RES share IMPACT OF TOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION!!! RES development

31. Green-X results AT „strengthened policy“ RES-H development (sectors) RES-H development (technologies)

32. Literature review AT • RES-H/C 2030EEG 2007, Renewable heating and cooling 2030, accelerated scenario • BAP 2006Proposal for an Austrian biomass action plan (Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water management) • Heating 2020EEG 2009, Energy scenarios up to 2020: heating demand of small scale consumers; WAM-Scenario • SERI 2009Renewable energy in Austria: Modelling of different scenarios up to 2020, DAM-Scenario • Tech-Scen 2050EEG 2008, Scenarios of economic market opportunities of different energy technologies up to 2050, alternative support scheme scenario • Bio 2050EEG 2008, Strategies for the utilization of bioenergy potentials in Austria, heat and power high price scenario • ESTIF 2008Potential of solar thermal in Europe, RDP

33. Literature review ATSolar thermal

34. Literature review ATBiomass • To be included in the target report: - small scale/large scale; - grid/non-grid; - pellets/wood chips/wood logs; • … • Crucial: clarification about included biomass fractions (e.g. black liquor!)and sectors (e.g. industry)

35. Literature review ATAmbient heat (Heat pumps)

36. Literature review AT, total, sectors

37. Bottom-up data and analysis: Building stock

38. Bottom-up data and analysis: Austrian building stock • Number of buildings (with space heating) Austria and the target regions: Upper Austria and Styria

39. Bottom-up data and analysis: Austrian building stock Apartment units per building Apartment units per building Apartment units per building Communities with More than 10000 inhabitants Communities with Communities with 5000 – 10000 inhabitants less than 5000 inhabitants 20+ 20+ 11-20 20+ 6-10 1 11-20 2 11-20 3-5 1 6-10 1 3-5 2 6-10 3-5 2 • Predominating residential building type strongly depends on the community size

40. Bottom-up data and analysis: Austrian building stock • Spatial distribution of citizens • 50% of the Population do live in regions with less than 10.000 inhabitants

41. Bottom-up data and analysis: Austrian building stock • Buildings sort by construction period(2005) • 70% constructed before 1980 (buildings to be renovated until 2020 • No major differences between target regions: Upper Austria, Styria and Austria

42. Bottom-up data and analysis: Solar thermal heat

43. Solar thermal energy is widely spread in Austria Subsidies in 2007 for solar thermal applications: ~50 Mio. € Includes double counting’s (AEE INTEC, 2007)

44. Bottom-up data and analysis: Solar thermal heat • Available roof area: • Novak et al. (2000) IEA PVPS programme Task 7: • 159 km² roof area in areas with sufficient solar radiation and suitable direction • EEG: Bottom up analysis based on buildings with low temperature demand: • 83 km² (2005), 90 km² (2020) • Solar radiation: • less than 1100 kWh/m² in most populated regions

45. Bottom-up data and analysis: Solar thermal heat • Achievable solar fractions for different applications

46. Bottom-up data and analysis: Solar thermal heat Main underlying assumptions • 70% of new buildings after 2010 do have solar thermal space heating: • Solar coverage: • 30% small res. buildings (25% in 2010, 35% in 2020) • 20% apartment buildings (15% in 2010, 25% in 2020) • 20% of new buildings after 2010 will equipped with solar thermal water heating • Solar coverage: • 70% of energy demand for hot water supply

47. Bottom-up data and analysis: Solar thermal heat Main underlying assumptions • 55% of buildings constructed between 1980 – 1990: (those are the buildings which do change their heating system only, Novak et al. 2000, buildings stock 55% if buildings suitable solar radiation) • Solar coverage: • 20% small res. buildings (20% in 2010, 25% in 2020) • 10% apartment buildings (10% in 2010, 10% in 2020) • 55% of buildings which will be renovated within the time period from 2010 – 2020 (Renovation rate: 1,5%p.a.) • Solar coverage: • 25% small res. buildings: (20% in 2010, 30% in 2020) • 15% apartment buildings: (10% in 2010, 20% in 2020) • 55% of buildings that change their heating system will equipped with solar thermal water heating (Replacement rate, heating system only: 1,5%p.a.) • Solar coverage: 60% of energy demand for hot water

48. Bottom-up data and analysis: Solar thermal heat Achievable solar thermal energy contribution • Total solar thermal energy supply 2020: 15 PJ 250 out of 680 Mio. m²

49. Bottom-up data and analysis: Heat pumps

50. Bottom-up data and analysis: Heat pumps • Current market situation • Sales increased significantly within the last year • 80.000 HP for DHW 50.000 for space heating Historical installation