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Fundraising and the Media

Fundraising and the Media

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Fundraising and the Media

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  1. Fundraising and the Media April 23, 2013

  2. Opportunities to discuss course content • Tuesday 11-2 • Weds 10-2

  3. Learning Objectives • Evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of how presidential and congressional elections are financed. • Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process

  4. Readings • Chapter 7: Political Communication and the Mass Media (Flanigan)

  5. Outside Spending in 2012

  6. Top Outside Spenders: 2012

  7. Outside Spending in 2012

  8. Advantages of Super Pacs • They Can Spend the Unlimited Amounts • Level the Playing Field • Say things that a candidate would never say

  9. Disadvantages of Super Pacs • Message problems • Cost-effectiveness

  10. Impact of the Super-pacs • GOP outspends 2-1, but Hard Money is still better • Tend to give to ideologically pure and long-shot candidates • Will have to re-evaluate themselves

  11. The Republicans The Election

  12. The Republicans • Romney • Perry • Gingrich • Santorum

  13. Obama’s Super Pac Strategy • Previously • If You cant beat them, join them • Creates a super pac

  14. Obama in the Summer • Preemptive Attack • Battleground States • Cost-Effective

  15. Overall Spending

  16. The media

  17. The Role of the Media • Is an informal institution • Is a linkage institution • It is profit driven

  18. The Media and Opinion Formation • We are exposed to it constantly, but does it matter? • Direct Effects model says it matters a lot

  19. Indirect Effects Model • Two-Step flow Model • The Role of Elites

  20. Does the media really matter The Minimal Effects Model

  21. The Minimal Effects Model • The Fall Campaign is not that important • Most people have made up their mind

  22. Spurious/Minimal effects model • We do not seek out political information • We have selective/exposure perception • We rarely make major changes

  23. Who is influenced the most • Those with the least political attention • Those without stable party identification • Elections can swing if it is close

  24. Where We get our political information

  25. Where we get Political Information

  26. The Type of Media Matters • Television is the most important • The internet is the fastest, but has the most bias

  27. We Would Rather Watch Mistakes on TV • Bad Sushi • People Falling • A great collection

  28. Newspapers and Magazines • Newspapers • Provide more information and Detail • Very few cities have multiple papers anymore • Magazines- vary in content and quality

  29. The Decline of Old media

  30. The Media and Campaigns

  31. Why a campaign? • Minimal effects model says most people don’t switch • Go after weak partisans and independents • Make sure your base comes out

  32. When are Campaigns Most important • When we know nothing about the candidates • There is no counter-information • When the information is important

  33. Why you try to get

  34. Horse Race Coverage • What is it? • What does it contain • Why?

  35. Following The Polls

  36. The keys to horse race coverage • Polling • Perception • No issues

  37. Horse Race Dominated the Primaries

  38. Horse Race coverage in the Primary election

  39. Component I: Categorizer • Sorts the candidates into winners and losers • Creates an Image for the candidate

  40. Component II: Expectation Setter • Puts odds on the candidates • You want to be at the top… duh • But it isn't as good as you might think

  41. Component III: Mentioner • You want the media to notice you • Not all press is good press • Mentions mean money and votes

  42. Component IV:Winnowing • The Press Winnows (narrows) down the candidates • Attention is on Iowa and NH • Frontloading is the results

  43. Winnowing In 2012

  44. Debates

  45. Presidential Debates • A Recent Phenomenon • General Strategies • Do not screw up

  46. Why Candidates Like these • A chance for exposure • A chance for Legitimacy • A chance to move in the polls

  47. Presidential Debates • Who Wins (the leader in the polls) • The Person who doesn’t make a mistake • Does it matter?

  48. Presidential Debates • Win by not losing • What don't you want to do? • The 1960 Debate • Look ancient • Seem heartless • You are no Jack Kennedy • Eastern Europe is Free • The Global Test • Adm. James Stockdale • Blind , Deaf, Dumb

  49. Impact of the First Debate on Coverage