Chapter 7-9: Elections and Campaigns

Chapter 7-9: Elections and Campaigns

Types of elections Primary / Caucus General Designed to pick the candidate who will actually hold office Example: Obama vs. Romney • Designed to choose the parties nominee • Example: Romney, Paul, Huntsman, Gingrich, Santorum competing to be Republican nominee for 2012 • Types: • Closed: must declare in advance that you are a member of the party to take part in this election • About 40 states (why? ) • Open: on primary election day you pick which parties primary you will vote on • 8 states • Blanket: can vote in primaries for both parties • Washington & Alaska Hon .Clay Henry III of Lajitas , Texas

Types of Elections • Primary / Caucus • How to get on the ballot in NJ (each state is different) • It is estimated to cost about $50 million to run a successful primary/caucus campaign (Romney spent $110 million) • In the past 3 decades, in almost every case, the candidate who raised the most money during this stage in the process won their party’s nomination • What is a Caucus? (Little Vid action- 3:47) • 19 states • Why do most states hold primaries? • C’s are too time consuming!!!! • About 10% turnout

Primaries / Caucuses • So where does that $ go? • Organization • Fundraisers , Accountants, Press secretary , Scheduler, Speech writers , TV and internet advertising specialist , Pollsters, Direct mailing company & Social media specialists • Helps to win Iowa Caucus and N. H. Primary  • First two states to vote (Iowa caucus/ N.H. Primary) • Early media attention • Indication of other states to follow • only 2 candidates in the past 10 elections have lost both and gone on to win their party’s nomination • G. W. Bush in 2000 • Clinton in 1992

Primaries / Caucuses • Need to motivate voters to turn out for you • Primary turnout low • About 20% • This results in candidates trying to appeal to the base of their party while also looking ahead to general election • FLIP FLOP EFFECT!!! (Sorry Romney)-incumbent advantage…..why?? • Republicans: need to appear conservative • Democrats: need to appear liberal • During the general election candidates generally return to more moderate stances, must remember what you say during primary/ caucus season will be used by your opponent • Can result in “Clothespin voting”

Presidential Primaries / Caucuses • When voting in a P/C you are actually selecting delegates who will attend the party’s National Convention to demonstrate support for that candidate. • Much like the electoral college The Partys decide the rules, they are not in the Constitution or state law, the party’s can change the rules prior to an election. • Democrats award delegates proportionally in all states • Republicans allow the state to decide if they want a winner take all system or a proportional system • NJ = winner take all

General Presidential vs. General Congressional Campaigns Presidential Congressional Less voter turn-out, especially during midterm elections (non-presidential election years 2002,2006, 2010..) Typically about 36% turnout since 1964 Historically less party turnover (recent exceptions include 2006 and 2010) Why less turnover?!? Incumbency advantage More direct connection to the voter (service to constituents) Separate themselves from the “mess in Washington” Sophomore surge: can use perks of office to get elected • More voters participate • Typically about 60% turnout since 1964 • More party turnover • Past 20 elections • Republicans 9 times • Democrats 11 times

Presidential Elections • Who does the public prefer? • Most candidates have experience in multiple areas listed below

Presidential Election • Theme? • A simple ,appealing idea that can be repeated over and over and over and over and over (you get it) • Obama: Forward • Romney: We can’t afford 4 more years • If you are an incumbent, you will invariably have to defend your record • Tone? • Positive? • Build me up • Negative? • Knock them down

Negative Campaigning • Jefferson and Adams • Daisy • Willy Horton

Timing? • Start too early and you may go broke, too late and you may not build up enough momentum or name recognition • Targets? • Who are the undecided in this election? How will you sway them? • Use precise targeting / “micro-targeting” • New demographics(see next slide)

Targets: Demographics • Need to focus on these voters and mobilize them!!!! • CAN THE REPUBLICAN PARTY EVER RECOVER???? • What groups are Republicans going to have to reach out to to win the next presidential election ? • How can the Republicans appeal to women and Latinos without changing their core beliefs?

Presidential Elections • What types of issues will the candidate focus on? • Position: rival parties take different stances • Taxation: • Obama : increase taxes on wealthy to help pay down debt • Romney: decrease tax rate for all to help struggling economy • Valence: how closely a party/candidate is connected with a concept • Nixon: associated with a tough stance on crime • Reagan: more associated with a strong economy

Little review: • What is the difference between a primary, caucus, and general election? • What are the three types of primaries? What are the advantages and disadvantages of each? • Why is the Iowa caucus and NH primary so important? • Why does the incumbent have an advantage in the general election? • What government experience is the most important to have when running in the presidential general election? What do the voters like?

Presidential Elections • Who is going to be your Vice President? • Need to pick someone who will appeal to a part of the party you may not appeal to “balance the ticket” • Youth / Experience • Regional • Moderate / Conservative or Liberal • Unify party after bitter primary

Presidential Elections • How will you “advertise” your candidate? • TV • Debates • Direct Mail • Internet

General Election and the Electoral College HOW TO VOTE… Electoral College: 538 electors in total (100+435+3) , need 270 Meet on the first Monday after the 2nd Wednesday in December votes sent to Congress counted during a joint session How are electors chosen? What happens if there is a tie? (1825) election of 1800: Jefferson v. Adams 12th amendment: Electors vote on separate ballot for president and VP to avoid rivals holding office together

Electoral College Pros Cons Doesn’t always reflect the will of the people Can have faithless electors Doesn’t reflect the idea of 1 person, 1 vote Wyoming has one "elector" for every 177,556 people and Texas has one "elector" for about every 715,499. • Allows for both people and states to be represented : Federalism • “Extended Republic” • Need to appeal to a variety of voters, not just one faction or region

Mass Media Problem…. • “Patriotocracy” (END time 58:00-48:00) • How has the internet influenced popular opinion? • Social media? • What has happened to traditional news reports on television in comparing today with 20-30 years ago? • What has happened to objectivity? • Is this good for our republic? • Should we limit the first amendment right and be more “responsible” in news reporting?

Little Research--- OOO YEAH!! • DUE TUESDAY!!! Find 2 Articles on your assigned topic, READ them and PRINT them out!!! • Research one of the topics listed below: • (1) “Bank War” – Jackson vs. 2nd Bank of US • (2) Tillman Act • (3) Federal Corrupt Practices Act • (4) Hatch Act • (5) The Smith-Connally Act and the Taft-Hartley Act • (6) FECA- Federal Election Campaign Act • (7) Buckley v. Valeo • (8) Bi-Partisan Campaign Reform Act • (9) Randall v. Sorrell • (10) Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission

With your partner(s) Topic Name • Date: • List important points the class needs to know!!! • (optional) Questions for me and/or class….

The Numbers for Campaign Financing • “There are two things that are important in politics. The first is money and I can’t remember what the second one is.”—Ohio political boss and U.S. Senator Mark Hanna, 1895 • 2012 presidential race! • A report by the Center for Responsive Politics places the total cost of the 2012 elections at an estimated $6 billion, which would make it the most expensive election in U.S. history

Sources of Funding • Private • Small contributors- those who give $5 or $10 (10 %) • Wealthy individuals- “fat cats”- can afford large donations and find it to be in their best interest • Candidates themselves- Ross Perot record of $65 million of his own money for 1992 election • Political Action Committees- PACs- special interest groups which have a major stake in public policy • Temporary organizations- groups formed for the immediate purposes of a campaign • fund-raising…Spring up at every election • Public • Subsidy- public- grant of money from the government from state or federal treasury.

Why do people give? • Strong belief in the party • Want access to gov • Give to both sides in some cases • Want appointments to public office • Some just want to know who is in office

Regulating Campaign Finance • Federal Election Campaign Act (FECA) of 1971-FECA amendments ’74 and ‘76 • Earliest laws were not ENFORCED • Written in response to Watergate in ‘72 • Congress does NOT have authority to regulate state elections- some regulate better than others • Created the FEC (Federal Election Commission)

FEC- Four broad areas of enforcement • Require the timely disclosure of campaign finance data • Reports are very detailed • No individual or group can make a contribution in the name of another • No foreign money • All contributions must be made through single campaign committee • Place limits on contributions • no person can give more than $1,000 in primary or general election • no person can give a PAC $5,000 or $20,000 to a national party committee- NO MORE THAN $25,000 in any year total to candidate and committee at federal level

FEC- Four broad areas of enforcement • PAC CONTRIBUTIONS • Political Action Committees (PACs)(statistics)-special-interest groups that have a major stake in public policy. PACs, which have grown rapidly in recent years. • Corporations and labor unions can NOT contribute to any candidate running for a federal office • PACs can however • PACS today • Emily’s list- goal to get more women in congress • Get contributions from members- bundle all money and donate to candidate they like best • No PAC can give more than $5,000 to any fed cand or $10,000 per election cycle

FEC- Four broad areas of enforcement • Limits on expenditures • First began to limit fed camp. Spending in 1925 • Buckley v. Valeo1976 • Struck down several spending limits set by the FECA ‘74 • Unconstitutional –first amendment free speech-“money is speech” • Threw out • Limited campaign expenditures by candidates running for seats in the House or Senate • Limited how much of their own money candidates could put into their own campaigns • No person or group could spend more than $1,000 on behalf of any federal candidate without that candidate’s permission • Candidates who do NOT take take FEC subsidies are not bound by those limits placed upon.

FEC- Four broad areas of enforcement • Provide public funding (subsidies) • Began with Revenue act 1971 • Presidential election campaign fund • Preconvention Campaigns • To be eligible, you must raise $100,000 from individuals • 5,000 increments and 20 different states • FEC will match the first $250 of each individual’s donation • FEC does NOT match contributions of PACs • National Conventions • If a major party applies for the money, it receives a grant to pay for its national convention • Two parties receive millions for convention • Presidential Election Campaigns- every major party qualifies for a public subsidy to cover the costs for general election

LOOPHOLES!!! • “more loop hole than law”- LBJ on the fed campaign finance law • Soft money- fed law neither limits nor requires the reporting of it • Includes those contributions made to state and local party orgs for such “party building activities” as voter registration and get out the vote drives, party mailings and advertisements, and similar efforts • Wealthy individuals, many PACs, etc. • Hard money- money subject to regulation by the FEC. • Independent Campaign Spending (expenditures)- one that participates in a campaign entirely on its own, with no connection to a candidate or party involved in that election. • Buckley v. Valeo- Money is speech • Issue ads- Can spend as much as you want as long as you don’t say “vote for Joe” or “Vote against Sue”

PACs and Super PACs • What are super pacs? (2 minute video) • Super PACs may not contribute directly to candidate’s campaign or to political parties but instead spend money independent of a political campaign to influence the result. • In addition, they can raise funds from corporations, unions and other groups, and from individuals, without legal limits. • According to FEC rules, Super PACs are not allowed to cooperate, consult, or act in concert with a candidate or their agents or a political party or its agents. • They can , however, publically declare support for one candidate or another. • List of current Super PACs

Presidential Campaign Spending Short musical on the influence of pacs and super pacs

Review

BRCA / McCain –Feingold (2002) • Labor Unions and corporations can’t fund ads, limits on attack ads prior to elections • Limits on how much $ could be given to PACs and how much PACs could give to candidates and political parties

Citizens United • 5-4 ruling by SCOTUS • Corporations and Labor Unions are allowed to give unlimited monetary contributions to outside spending groups (527s, 501c4s), the ruling was based on the 1st amendment rights of these organizations (freedom of political speech) • Labor Unions and Corporations can use general funds to create ads to support candidates or issues • Cannot directly donate to a candidate • No restrictions on when negative ads funded by outside groups can air on TV • Was 30 days before a primary, 60 days before a general election Thoughts on Citizens ruling?

Frontline: Big Sky, Big Money • Day 1: • How much money has been spent on ads in the Senate race in Montana? What % has come from outside groups? Do you think that this statistic matters?( be specific) • How do 501 c4s and Super PACs differ? • Why may an individual / corporation / labor union rather contribute to a 501 c4? • Define “magic words”, give a few examples. http://video.pbs.org/video/2298009584/ link to video

Big Sky, Big Money • Day 2: • Jim Bopp, Jr. contends that the anonymity that 501c4s provide donors is beneficial to the political process. Do you agree or disagree? Why? • In the case of Montana v. WTP: • What are the issues? • How does the Montana Supreme Court rule? • Ultimately how does SCOTUS rule? • After viewing the film answer the following question in 5-8 sentences citing specific examples from the film • Does having less restrictions on 501c4s impede or enhance our electoral process?

Questions to consider when reflecting on campaign finance regulations • Should there be any limits on what candidates and political parties can spend during a campaign (hard money)? • Should there be any limits on what independent (outside ) expenditure groups (501c4s, 527s, Super PACs) can spend (soft money) ? • Citizens United declared that corporations and labor unions have the same rights to political free speech as individuals. Do you agree? • Can you just allow corporations or labor unions to have political personhood? • Should there be any media restrictions on the number and/or frequency of ads any entity can produce? • Should 501c4s have to disclose donors? • Should 527s, 501c4s, and Super PACS be able to coordinate with candidates? • Do these groups actually allow for more groups (factions) to be represented? (Would Madison approve?) • Do you think these groups may allow for 3rd party candidates to be viable candidates for office?

Campaign Finance: Public Funding • The Federal Election Commission began public funding in 1976. • Eligible Presidential candidates use federal funds in their primary and general election campaigns, and the major parties used public funds to pay for their nominating conventions. • Candidates are eligible to get $20 mil from the government and can spend up to $50,000 of their own $, the total limit for 2012 was $91.5 million • A candidate could raise $70 million and spend that as well. • Where does the $ come from? • The U.S. Treasury makes the actual payments from the Presidential Election Campaign Fund. • This fund consists of dollars voluntarily checked off by taxpayers on their federal income tax returns. • To be eligible the candidate: • Must be a member of a political party • Must show broad based support by raising at least $5,000 in at least 20 states (100,000) http://www.fec.gov/pages/brochures/pubfund.shtml#anchor684182

Any Current Movements for Reform • www.wolf-pac.com)

Chapter 7-9: Elections and Campaigns