Civil Effects Leader’s Training Simulation (CELTS)

1. Civil Effects Leader’s Training Simulation (CELTS)

2. CELTS – Relevant and Ready • Constructive, stochastic simulation. • 4th generation warfare • Uses Gravity Modeling and Inertia to simulate population interactions • Models national will • Audience • Commander and staffs at brigade level and above • Educational Institutions • Goal • Produce plausible outcomes to promote discussion of how to best apply soft factors of war in the current operational environment • Objectives: • Gain support of population for US/Allied campaign objectives in AOR • Scalable – can model all levels of war • In use at USA CGSC Target Population Munitions of the Mind Weapons Of Mass Construction Weapons Of Mass Distraction

3. Java J2SE 6 based Sim Engine User Interface built on OpenMap™ framework GIS based user interface system allows placement of scenarios anywhere in the world Runs on Army Common Hardware Platform Extensible codebase utilizes OOP patterns and principles Stand-Alone  HLA Compatibility Data Driven Scenarios developed with readily available, free, or inexpensive software Turn based approach allows simulation of long periods of time in a short training session. CELTS - Technical Description/Approach

4. Asses AOR to determine Population groups Order of battle Approval/disapproval of US/allied objectives Regions coded as friendly, neutral, or hostile based on assessment of population groups CELTS Operations

5. CELTS Operations • Uses gravity modeling to simulate population movement, communications, commerce, etc. • Inertia slows Regions ability to adopt change • Drag and Drop Interface allows player to influence the region by • Presence • Targeted actions • Opposing sides attempt to frustrate friendly sides • Casualties affect national will • Visual display provides immediate feedback to training audience as to the effectiveness of their operations. • Built-in AAR tools allow focused discussion and learning.

6. Not Currently Supported Currently Supported Partially Supported CELTS Operations – DIME & PMESII DIME & PMESII effects unfold over weeks, years, even decades, but we train for only hours or days.

7. CSIS Assessment JAN 2008 vs CELTS From: Cordesman, Anthoney, The Afghanistan-Pakistan War: Threat Developments, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Feb 1, 2008, page 29

8. CELTS March 2008 Initialization CELTS End State May 2009 CSIS Assessment JAN 2008 vs CELTS Produce plausible outcomes to promote discussion

9. Influence moves population along single axis Disposition Hostile Friendly CELTS - Future Direction • Future • Three-dimensional influence • Fuzzy logic • Specify populations/units • More items explicit • Intelligence/Sensing • Civil infrastructure • Trust/Fear of Government • Implement Save/Restore Game • Inputs from Files • Current • One-dimensional influence • Crisp values • All populations • Many items implicit • Intelligence/sensing • Civil infrastructure • Trust/Fear of Government • Cannot Save Game • Cannot input from Files

10. CELTS Demonstration

11. BACK U P

12. “Currently, there are no extant models or federation of models that can adequately or completely describe complex human, social, and cultural behavior interactions at the local, national or regional levels.” OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE COMBATING TERRORISM TECHNOLOGY SUPPORT OFFICE BROAD AGENCY ANNOUNCEMENT (BAA) 08-Q-3028 ******************************************************************* HSC – Human, Social, and Cultural Behavior Modeling 1 FEB 2008

13. Current Constructive Simulations Largely restricted to 3rd Generation Wargaming Do not adequately cover PMESII factors Do not fully address non-lethal operations Do not model national will Real time nature does not allow time for effects of soft operations to unfold CELTS Incorporating 4th Generation Wargaming Covers A broad range of PMESII and non-lethal factors Rates units and their operations on their ability to change populaces’ support of US/allied objectives Models national will Uses gravity modeling to simulate population interaction and influence Turn based format provides ability to simulate long periods of time in A short training period CELTS – Advancing Toward the Objective PMESII effects unfold over weeks, years, even decades, but we train for only hours or days.

14. Current Simulations are Resource Intensive Simulation Center Large Contractor Staff Extensive Training >10 Days Poor Interface Too Hard to Use Many Operators Only used for major exercises CELTS is Designed for Minimum Footprint Stand Alone Minimum/No Support Simple to Train <4 Hours Intuitive Interface Simple to Use Few Operators Can be used at commander’s discretion CELTS - Designed for Simplicity

15. CELTS - DIME Actions Currently Supported Partially Supported Not Currently Supported

16. CELTS - PMESII Actions Currently Supported Partially Supported Not Currently Supported

17. CELTS – PMESII Focused

18. Major Combat Operations (-) Irregular Warfare (+) Counterinsurgency (+) Support to an Insurgency (+) Unconventional Warfare (+) Foreign Internal Defense (-) Combating Terrorism (+) Peace Operations (+) Peacekeeping (+) Peace Enforcement (0) Peacemaking (0) Peace Building (+) Conflict Prevention (+) Limited Intervention (0) Non Combatant Evacuation Operations (NEO) (0) Raid (-) Strike (-) Show of Force (-) Foreign Humanitarian Assistance (+) Consequence Management (+) Enforcement of Sanctions (+) Peacetime Military Engagement (+) Multinational Training/Exercises (0) Joint Combined Exchange TNG (0) State Partnership Program (0) Military Support to Security Assistance (+) Regional Defense Counterterrorism Programs (+) Recovery Operations (+) Nation Assistance (+) Arms Control (0) CELTS - Applicable to Operational Themes (+)=High Applicability (0)=Some Applicability (-)=Minimum Applicability Based on FM3-0

19. Civil Infrastructure Challenge: Move a satisfied, hostile population to support the friendly side • Initially model four systems • Sewage • Water • Electrical • Trash Disposal • Ratings • Green Fully Functional • Amber Partially Functional • Red Minimally Functional • Black Not Functional • May be • Attacked • Guarded • Sabotaged • Built • Repaired • Contributes to Satisfaction Index • Green – Satisfied • Amber – Partially Satisfied • Red – Not Satisfied • Black - Unsatisfied Friendly APU with poor satisfaction.

20. If Friendly Actions counter the effects of Hostile Actions, and If civilian casualties are low/or decline Then the population trusts the government more, and Friendly actions gain more influence. If Hostile Actions counter the effects of Friendly Actions, and If civilian casualties are high/or increase Then the population loses trusts in the government more, and Hostile actions gain more influence. Ratings Green – Trust Amber – Some Trust Red – Mistrust Black – No Trust Trust and Fear of Government Hostile APU with poor satisfaction and fear of Government.

21. Abstract Physical Static Dynamic Spatial Point Deterministic Stochastic Aggregate Individual Continuous Discrete Quantitative Qualitative Causal Co relational Empirical Process SEAS CELTS JNEM IGS Non-Lethal Force Simulation Characteristics Based on Loper, Modeling Overview, Georgia Tech, 2007

22. Wargame Generations and Definitions • First – Abstract strategy games: Chess, Go • Second – Military simulation games including attrition, movement, logistics (most modern wargames, even today) • Third – System on system games incorporating human factors, enemy war economy as a system • Fourth – Including unconventional war and the battle for hearts and minds.