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Population

Population. Vocabulary Effects of high population levels and growth Current situation Projections What drives population growth? Momentum and Fertility What causes changes in fertility Demographic Transformation or Trap? How accurate are projections? Strategies for changing fertility.

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Population

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  1. Population Vocabulary Effects of high population levels and growth Current situation Projections What drives population growth? Momentum and Fertility What causes changes in fertility Demographic Transformation or Trap? How accurate are projections? Strategies for changing fertility

  2. Vocabulary (2) • Dependency Ratio = Dependent PopulationWorking Age Population • Momentum

  3. World Population Increases,1995-2020

  4. Population Growth Greatest in Developing Countries

  5. What Drives Population Growth Patterns? • Momentum • Fertility • Shocks

  6. Momentum

  7. Population momentum in Mexico 1980-1998: Large increase in women in childbearing years, this, even if fertility stays constant, population will increase

  8. What Causes Changes? • Hypothesis: Social and economic development lead to a demographic transformation • Industrialization, urbanization, education and general modernization lead to a decline in death rates and then a decline in birth rates • This seems to have been the case for presently rich countries. Is it true for countries that are now developing?

  9. Source: Keith Montgomery, UWMC

  10. Birth & Death Rates, Sweden 1751-1984

  11. Birth & Death Rates, Mexico 1895/99-1980/85

  12. Will there be a demographic transformation in Africa or will rapidly growing population overwhelm development efforts?

  13. Projections and Evidence about Demographic Transformation in LDCs

  14. Only a Small Decline of Sub-Saharan African Fertility Rates 1970s to 1980s

  15. Sharp Decline in Asian Fertility Rates 1970s to 1980s

  16. Declines in Latin American and Caribbean Fertility Rates 1970s to 1980s

  17. How accurate are population projections? Source for this discussion is Cohen, Joel. 1995.How Many People Can the Earth Support? New York: W.W. Norton & Company

  18. Cohort component method assumes that females of child bearing ages in, e.g., 1995 will have same fertility pattern as those in 1990.

  19. Projections of UK’s 2001 population made over 17 years: 25% upward adjustment 1960-1965; 37% downward adjustment 1965-1977UK is small and homogeneous thus ideal for projections.Actual 2001 population was 58.8 million

  20. Do high and low projections provide an adequately wide band?

  21. UN’s high and low projections of 1980 world population overlap, i.e., the band was too narrow - it indicated more confidence than warranted

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