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Red vs. Blue?

Red vs. Blue?. The personal and geographic bases of cleavages. The map that started it all, 2000 . I. Overview of Fiorina. The “Red vs. Blue” story 50/50 Nation: Americans are split down the middle into Red (pro-Republican) and Blue (pro-Democrat) voters

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Red vs. Blue?

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  1. Red vs. Blue? The personal and geographic bases of cleavages

  2. The map that started it all, 2000 

  3. I. Overview of Fiorina • The “Red vs. Blue” story • 50/50 Nation: Americans are split down the middle into Red (pro-Republican) and Blue (pro-Democrat) voters • Polarization: The Red/Blue divide has been growing over time • Geographic Divide: Red America is a very different place than Blue America • Partisanship: Partisan bickering has been on the increase

  4. B. Fiorina’s Contribution • 50/50 Nation: Fiorina agrees • Polarization: Fiorina disagrees • Geographic Divide: Fiorina disagrees • Partisanship: Fiorina distinguishes between elite-driven and mass-driven partisanship, argues that elite polarization produces partisan discord among voters

  5. C. Unanswered Questions • Why do some people identify as Republican while others identify as Democrat? • Are there regional divides aside from the mythical Red/Blue one? • Is elite partisanship increasing?

  6. II. The Individual Divide What causes people to support one party instead of the other?

  7. A. Intergenerational Effect

  8. B. Race and Ethnicity • If you can pick one characteristic about a person and then predict their own party identification, ask about race and ethnicity: better predictor than age, sex, income, education, geography, etc.

  9. ‘04 Racial Dividea. About 90% of African-Americans Vote Democratic

  10. b. Race Trumps Rural Issues: Rural Counties by Race/Ethnicity

  11. County Map of 2004 Results

  12. c. Race trumps gender, age, and income

  13. 2. The Ethnic Divide: Latinosa. Latinos favor Democrats

  14. b. Need to control for registration: large differences

  15. c. Latinos are diverse: Country of Origin Effects

  16. d. Effects of income, education, and residency

  17. e. Immigration attitudes cross party lines

  18. 3. Asian-Americans: Pro-Democrat a. Similarities to Latino vote: • Majority too young or noncitizens • Country of origin effects • Importance of immigration and language issues • Decreasing Democratic advantage? Mixed results due to small sample sizes b. Election 2004: Asian-Americans vote for Kerry by 3:1 margin

  19. 4. Native Americans: Pro-Democrat • No exit polling data – findings based on geographic comparisons

  20. Native American Counties

  21. County Map of 2004 Results

  22. C. Income: Better predictor since 1980s2004 Exit Polls: Overall • Income %R%D • <$15K 36% 63% • $15-30K 41% 58% • $30-50K 48% 51% • $50-75K 55% 44% • $75-100K 53% 46% • $100-150K 56% 43% • $150-200K 57% 43% • >$200K 62% 37%

  23. 1. Effect is not an artifact of race-class connection

  24. 2. Inequality has polarized parties

  25. D. Religiosity • Fiorina: Salience of religion better predictor than denomination

  26. E. The Gender Gap

  27. 1. Early gap was race-based, but recent increase is not

  28. 2. Fiorina’s Explanation • Women more dovish on security • Women more pro-government on social programs • Since 1970s Democrats have been both more dovish and more pro-government on social programs  gender gap

  29. 3. Puzzle: Regional variation in the gender gap

  30. F. Population Density 1. Urban areas trend Democratic, Rural areas trend Republican

  31. a. Election 2004: County Map of 2004 Results

  32. County Map of Population Density: Republicans Win Most Rural Counties

  33. b. Shift in Rural Partisanship: Rural support for Republicans (Blue) and Democrats (Red)

  34. c. Rural/Urban Voters Have Similar Priorities…

  35. d. …But Different Ideologies

  36. e. Two Core Divisions: Religion and Guns

  37. f. Rural Voters Reverse the “Gender Gap”

  38. 2. The suburban majority: Voting splits on North/South lines Suburbs split 50-50 in 2000, 53-47 in 2004

  39. G. Age 1. Democrats do well among the very young and the old

  40. G. Age • Democrats do well among the very young and the old • But young are most likely to be independents

  41. 3. Gender outweighs age

  42. H. Education? Little effect… • Education appears to increase Republican ID, but.. • Education increases income, which may be responsible • Controlling for income results in no effect or even pro-Democratic shift • Very high levels of education (PhD) dramatically increase Democratic ID • Education does tend to bring party ID in line with professed ideology

  43. I. Conclusions About Party ID White Race Anglo Ethnicity Republican Parents Male Highly Religious Rural Age 25-40 + + Republican Self-Identification + + + + +

  44. III. Regional Divides? A. Voting History

  45. B. General Political Regions

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