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Maximizing Bandwidth Growth: Richard Auld Analyzes the Internet Evolution

Explore the remarkable bandwidth growth trends analyzed by Richard Auld, delving into the evolution from 10Gbps to 300Gbps in 2019, driven by technology advancements. Discover key insights from the industry and foreseen forecasts that dramatically transformed the landscape. Witness how standards ratification propels actual port sales, driving the demand for higher bandwidth connections. Learn from past misconceptions, as poor forecasting led to underestimating the impact of technologies like Wi-Fi, mobile communication, and VoIP. Gain valuable insights on lowering TCO and better cost visibility in network management. Stay informed on the strategic approach to network scalability, saving up to 30% in costs over a 3-year period. Uncover the reality beyond short-sighted quotes with a nod to historical space endeavors and valuable lessons in technological progress.

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Maximizing Bandwidth Growth: Richard Auld Analyzes the Internet Evolution

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  1. Bandwidth Growth Richard Auld

  2. Internet bandwidth growth 53% CAGR

  3. 1Gbps Ratified 10GbpsRatified 40/100GbpsRatified Continued growth driven by technology • Recent history suggests…. • Standards ratification lead actual port sales by 2~3 years. • The introduction of 40Gb and 100Gb connections to servers will continue to drive bandwidth requirements upwards. 1998 10Gb today is…. 84Gb 2016 is…. 300Gb 2019 (53% AGR)

  4. Poor forecasting – some short-sighted quotesWith thanks to Peter Cochrane’s blog http://www.silicon.com/search/peter-cochrane/n-28e/ • Optical fibre will never displace copper and microwave radio. • Mobile communication will never be a big revenue earner. • No adult is going to sit there sending stupid little text messages. • We have no interest in VoIP and it will never be important. • Wi-fi will never have an impact on the telecoms industry. • Why would anyone want 10Mbps to their home? • The internet will always be asymmetric. • The iPhone will never sell - it doesn't have any hard keys. • And finally a thought about price………………… • When reporters asked Shepard [Nasa Freedom 7 astronaut Alan Shepard, 1961] what he thought about as he sat atop the Redstone rocket, waiting for lift-off, he replied, 'The fact that every part of this ship was built by the low bidder'. Gene Kranz, Failure Is Not an Option

  5. Lowering TCO: Commercial approach 5 year TCO 1 7 5 10 2 4 0 3 6 8 9 No. 10Gbs Better value: Relative comparison of costs as network scales Typical savings of 30% can be achieved over a 3 year period Market 5 Yr PAYG 5 Yr Fibre Better cost visibility: Network costs can be determined for the future at a flat and predictable cost Flexible payment terms: Structured payment terms to suit your requirements

  6. For December 2010:National network availability: 100%London network availability: 99.999996% For the whole of 2010: National network availability: 99.9999015% London network availability: 99.9999808% Managed Service network availability: 100% Private Network availability: 100% 6

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