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Raw materials trades – EU Policy and the impact of developing countries on future trade flows

Raw materials trades – EU Policy and the impact of developing countries on future trade flows. Dr Corina Hebestreit, Director, Euromines. Euromines – what it is. Recognized representative of the European metals and minerals mining industry;

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Raw materials trades – EU Policy and the impact of developing countries on future trade flows

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  1. Raw materials trades – EU Policy and the impact of developing countries on future trade flows Dr Corina Hebestreit, Director, Euromines

  2. Euromines – what it is • Recognized representative of the European metals and minerals mining industry; • Service provider to its members with regard to EU policy; • Network for cooperation and for the exchange of information throughout the sector within Europe; • Link to contacts with the mining community throughout the world.

  3. Euromines Membership • Represents large and small companies and subsidiaries in Europe and in other parts of the world; • 18 national mining federations • 27 direct company members • 350,000 jobs; • Representing 42 different metals and minerals • For some metals and minerals, Europe is the world's leading producer.

  4. Percentage of different minerals represented in Euromines

  5. Countries represented • Austria • Bulgaria • Czech Republic • Finland • France • Germany • Greece • Hungary • Ireland • Norway • Poland • Portugal • Slovakia • Sweden • Turkey • United Kingdom

  6. Economy and Metal Consumption

  7. Global consumption of all metals has been increasing in the last 20 years, except some minor metals like Cd

  8. 11000 9000 7000 $/t 5000 3000 1000 1990 2000 2010 2020 CRM are not only rare metals : The case of copper Supply and Demand Imbalance Price scenario StockRecycling Current marginal market price Marginal market price (incl. smelting cost…) Competitive Recycled Cuprice Competitive recycled Copper price Floor production cost Copper demand for automotive industry will increase (electrification & volume effects) • Not only “rare” metals, but also commodities are critical • Look beyond our own sector

  9. Growing Demand: Example 1: copper 9

  10. Minimum needs exceed available scrap 25? yrs “In-use” lifeof Copper Secondary resource baseavailable today 8.5 Mt/yr50% of current annual demand

  11. Growing Demand: Example 2: industrial minerals 11

  12. Intensity of use: Steel 12 http://stigmes.gr

  13. GDP and steel intensity

  14. EU Industrial Policies and a related Material Demand Forecast Example: Predicted growth rates for photovoltaic cells Development of raw material demand

  15. EU electrification of cars

  16. EU electrification of cars

  17. Other new technologies

  18. Exploration Average yearly investments forecasts in non-ferrous mineral exploration by regions ($ value on 31/12/07, corrected by the change in the CPI index). Source: Metals Economic Group, Wikipedia, US Department of Labor Statistics. 18

  19. Investment is coming Mining industry capex, NFMs, 2011US$ bn (est) Source: CRU, industry estimates

  20. The EU’s Raw Materials Imitative and the EIP on Raw Materials • European Raw Materials Strategy • COM(2008) 699; COM(2011) 25 • Europe 2020 4 Flagships Initiatives out of 7 → raw material strategy synergies • An industrial policy for the globalisation era • An agenda for new skills and jobs • Resource Efficient Europe • Innovation Union

  21. EIP on Raw Materials: Key components Technology-focused policy areas Exploration, extraction, processing, recycling Substitution Non Technology policy areas Improving Europe's raw materials regulatory framework, knowledge and infrastructure base, e.g. access to land. Promotion of excellence in resource efficiency International cooperation Promoting appropriate international cooperation ETP SMR, Researchprojects, ERA-MIN Implementation of the RMI EIP Levelplayingfield WTO, Trade agreements

  22. First pillar • Access to raw materials on world markets at undistorted conditions Key actions: • pursuing raw materials diplomacy; • promoting enhanced international cooperation; • access to primary and secondary raw materials should become a priority in EU trade and regulatory policy; • EU policy development at three levels: strengthening states; promoting a sound investment climate; promoting sustainable management of raw materials.

  23. Raw materials diplomacy • Seeking cooperation with USA and Japan • Integrating raw materials aspects into the bilateral trade negotiations, e.g. South America • Promoting sustainable extraction of mineral resources worldwide • Developing access to resources in Greenland • Capacity building for the African minerals sector

  24. EU Policy on trade in raw materials • Situation • Increasing numbers of barriers distorting global markets… • Leading to suboptimal allocation of scarce resources: • There is an economic cost for the lack of trade! • Trade is a key policy in the Raw Materials initiative and includes • Negotiation of disciplines in bilateral and multilateral trade agreements (e.g. on export restrictions, including export duties) • Monitoring, review and WTO enforcement • Dialogue and outreach activities

  25. Second pillar • Foster sustainable supply of raw materials from European sources • Key actions: • having the right framework conditions securing access to the land; • improving the knowledge base of mineral deposits within EU; • better networking between the national geological surveys; • promoting research projects; • address the problem of skill shortage; • raising awareness of the importance of domestic raw materials for the European economy; • developing guidelines to reconcile Natura 2000 areas with extractive activities nearby.

  26. Production Overview EU 27 26

  27. Main Mineral Deposits of Europe 27

  28. Assessing the EU mineralpotential • ProMine Project: Nano-particle products from new mineral resources in Europe • 27 partners from 11 EU countries • Total budget: 17 M €

  29. EU Analysis of critical raw materials 29

  30. Critical Raw Materials in Europe 30

  31. Kolari Fe Suhanko PGE? Kevitsa Ni Laiva Au Pampalo Au Kylylahti Cu-Co Talvivaara Ni Suurikuusikko Au Mining of ore in Finland – new projects

  32. Third pillar • Reduce the EU’s consumption of raw materials per functional unit and improve product performance • Key actions: • promoting resource efficiency, recycling; • substitution and increased use of renewable raw materials; • ensuring that the treatment of waste takes place under fair and sustainable conditions in relations with third countries.

  33. Steps forward since 2012 • A European Innovation Partnership on Raw Materials (EIP) will be created. Members are: • the national mining authorities, • the European Commission and • the Mining Industry • This would stimulate and foster research into new and more resource-efficient management and will also review the legal framework 33

  34. From now to 2030 • Revised Mineral Policies such as: land-planning and mine waste management (by 2015) • Modern database and economic assessment of EU primary and secondary resources (by 2020) • Further steps in automation and high tech extraction (by 2030) • New technologies for recovery and recycling (by 2030)

  35. Education and skills • Education, training and skills of all sorts will be a prerequisite for such an agenda and the ambitious targets • The sheer number of people required in the coming decade does not seem to be available •  investment in and advertisefor this specialized education is needed 35

  36. Vision for 2020 and beyond • By 2015 • EIP on Raw Materials: research into new and more resource efficient resource access and management; review of regulatory requirements • Complete database by MS on old mine waste sites (EU Mine Waste Directive) • EU Standard methodology for prioritisation and economic assessment of such deposits • All Member States have new or revised Mineral Policies in place • All MS Land-planning policies include references to extractable mineral deposits • Revision of BAT note on mine waste management

  37. Vision for 2020 and beyond By 2020 • Complete modern database and economic assessment of EU primary and secondary resources • Revised regulatory framework facilitating sustainable management of resources and uptake of innovation • EU Leadership in technology for all aspects of resource management (exploration, extraction, processing, re-processing, reuse, recycling, recovery, design, …) • EU ressource diversification

  38. Vision for 2020 and beyond • By 2030 • Only High tech mines in place in Europe • Technology proven and being exported • Optimised valorisation of available resources, i.e. • new technologies in place, • removal of legacy sites, • increased reuse, recovery and recycling rates, • material efficiency use in higher performance products BEFORE RESTORATION AFTER RESTORATION

  39. Products Results of EU industrial policiesMaterial flows Waste 2009 Europe China Secondary materials Primary materials Products 2030 Europe Waste China Secondary materials Primary materials

  40. Chinese wisdom:« When the wind of change blows, some build walls, while others build windmills.”

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