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Census Analysis & Policy-making in London

Census Analysis & Policy-making in London. London Census Information Scheme. 17 July ONS User Engagement Workshop. Analytical Output. Commissioned Work. Data Accessibility. London Datastore. London Datastore. Census Analysis to underpin Policy-making in London.

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Census Analysis & Policy-making in London

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  1. Census Analysis &Policy-making in London London Census Information Scheme 17 July ONS User Engagement Workshop

  2. Analytical Output

  3. Commissioned Work

  4. Data Accessibility

  5. London Datastore

  6. London Datastore

  7. Census Analysis to underpin Policy-making in London • Mixed and Balanced Communities • Claimant Count Model • Child Yield Estimation • London Infographics

  8. Mixed & Balanced Communities Applying Census Data

  9. The brief • London Assembly asked us to identify areas of London that show the most diversity • Aim to track the impact of interventions on the mix and balance of communities across London • As a benchmark, look at the most diverse areas in 2001 and 2011 • Diversity measured across a range of indicators - housing, economic and social characteristics

  10. Domains • Tenure • Accommodation type • Household composition • Age • Socio-Economic Group • Ethnic group

  11. Methodology • For each of the six domains: • Calculate Diversity Indices for 2001 and 2011 for local areas in London – Lower Super Output Areas were chosen as small enough to comprise local communities • Index change measures increasing or decreasing diversity between 2001 and 2011

  12. Housing Tenure 2011 2001

  13. Household Composition 2001 2011

  14. Socio-Economic Group 2001 2011

  15. Ethnicity 2001 2011

  16. Measuring overall diversity • Accommodation type, Household Composition and age structure generally higher diversity in outer London • Only Tenure higher in inner London • Ethnicity and SEG highest in “clusters” • Counted those LSOAs in top quartile across multiple domains

  17. High Diversity in Multiple Domains 2011 2001

  18. GLA Claimant Count Model Incorporating Census Data

  19. Using the Census in GLA Claimant Count models • GLA runs two Claimant Count models to produce claimant count rates as a proportion of the labour force • Age, Sex and Duration (ward level) • Ethnic group, Age and Sex (LA level) • The models rely on bringing together data from a range of sources to produce something meaningful and useful

  20. How does the model work? UC DWP ONS JSA DWP ONS Monthly Claimant Count Labour force estimate Ward population age x sex Migration age x sex Economic Activity Rates age x sex Dwellings Economic Activity Rates GLA Population projections Change in Economic Activity Rates APS International Migration (IPS ++) Forecast Dwelling Changes Borough Planning Departments Births + Deaths ONS registrations HRP rates age, sex & marital status Migration (NHSCR + HESA) ONS = census data

  21. Why do we do it? • Wide differences in economic activity rates by age, sex and ethnic group, so labour force estimates give a better indication of the population “at risk” than purely age-based denominators • Used by Boroughs to track and monitor changes in rates for particular sub groups of the population and therefore target efforts and programmes. • Not the full picture of unemployment, but • more up-to-date than ILO measures • can be done for more detailed geographic areas

  22. Population Yield Estimation Adding value to Census Data

  23. GLA Population Yield Model • Current Approach: • Sample data from Wandsworth and Oxford • New Approach • 2011 Census data • London development data

  24. Development Sites & New OA’s

  25. Yield Rates • Geographically specific • For Market & Social units • By Number of bedrooms

  26. Yield Rates • Geographically specific • For Market & Social units • By Number of bedrooms • 2 bedroom • Market housing • East London 0.276 children

  27. Yield Rates • Geographically specific • For Market & Social units • By Number of bedrooms • 3 bedroom • Social housing • South London 1.847 children

  28. Yield Calculator

  29. Yield Outputs

  30. West London 4,061

  31. North London 4,917

  32. East London 3,855

  33. South London 3,347

  34. Central London 3,180

  35. Next Steps • Produce a total yield in 10-year age bands • Create a tool that allows bespoke geographic aggregations

  36. CIS Infographics Visualising Census Data

  37. Information graphics (or infographics) Infographics are visual representations of data. They present information quickly and clearly.

  38. CIS infographics • Country of Birth • Demography • Economic Activity • Housing • Qualifications • Where students live

  39. Demography

  40. Demography

  41. Demography

  42. Demography

  43. Demography

  44. Demography

  45. Demography

  46. Housing

  47. The Labour Market

  48. Data.london.gov.uk/census

  49. Bringing infographics to life

  50. Census Information Scheme http://data.london.gov.uk/census census@london.gov.uk Richard Walker Richard Cameron William Tonkiss Jack Ryan

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