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Future of Carbon Market Post-2012: Insights from Global Round Table Discussion

This round table discussion held in Cologne, Germany in May 2006 delved into the interplay between the Carbon Market and the Kyoto Protocol, raising pertinent questions and exploring potential scenarios for the market's future beyond 2012. With insights from key panelists representing various countries and organizations, the discussion touched upon market dynamics, regulatory challenges, and the role of multilateral institutions in shaping a post-2012 carbon regime.

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Future of Carbon Market Post-2012: Insights from Global Round Table Discussion

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Presentation Transcript

  1. Beyond 2012Round Table Discussion Host Country Committee Meeting Cologne, Germany 08 May, 2006

  2. Two Questions • Does Carbon Market Need Kyoto Protocol? • Does Kyoto Protocol Need Carbon Market?

  3. Does Carbon Market Need Kyoto Protocol? • CDM over 50% of the market • High carbon prices and voluntary purchases led to some assertions of ‘do not need’ • Volatility, speculative nature, risks point to a market ‘yet-to-mature’

  4. Does Kyoto Protocol Need Carbon Market? • US out of the market; Canada almost out; Italy?; increased overall uncertainty • Demonstration of success in flexible mechanisms necessary to sustain the regime beyond first commitment period(?)

  5. Post-2012 • Montreal mandate did not happen (a la ‘Berlin mandate’) • Dialog has been on, covering various aspects • Several countries have made formal submissions with various suggestions

  6. Seen as an opportunity to focus on • Advancing sustainable development agenda • Enhancing clean energy access • ‘Greening’ agenda • Adaptation • Market-based opportunities

  7. Some Ideas Thrown Up • Stretch 2012 target to allow a proper regime to be negotiated (filler?) • It will also allow projects with long gestation (e.g. large power plants) to come into the mix • Develop VER standards (private sector involvement) • Voluntary targets for DCs • Long term targets with frequent checks • Long term capacity building to meet the targets • Multi-track approach with KP compliance but one of them • Create a Clean Energy Financing Vehicle

  8. Questions for the Panelists • Based on your observation of the Kyoto/and or EU systems so far, what is your sense of the carbon market beyond the current regulatory of 2012? • What is/should be the role for multilateral institutions (including World Bank) in a post-2012 regime? • What are your expectations for the post-2012 dialog of Bonn taking place next week?

  9. Panelists • Rajesh Sethi, Ministry of Environment and Forests, India • Hiroshi Yamagata, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan • Andrei Marcu, IETA • Xuedu Lu, MOST, China • Miguel Angel Cervantes, SEMARNAT, Mexico • Joanna Lewis, Pew Center for Climate Change • Johannes Heister, World Bank

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