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Pasadena Chamber of Commerce

Pasadena Chamber of Commerce. Regional Economic Outlook Kimberly Ritter-Martinez, Economist LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research October 23, 2014. Outline. U.S. Economy California Economy Los Angeles and the San Gabriel Valley Five-Year Outlook Conclusion. The U.S. Economy.

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Pasadena Chamber of Commerce

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  1. Pasadena Chamber of Commerce Regional Economic Outlook Kimberly Ritter-Martinez, Economist LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research October 23, 2014

  2. Outline • U.S. Economy • California Economy • Los Angeles and the San Gabriel Valley • Five-Year Outlook • Conclusion

  3. The U.S. Economy

  4. U.S. Economic Growth Annual % Change Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, forecasts by LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research

  5. Key Sectors of Macroeconomy

  6. U.S. Personal Consumption Annual % Change Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Kyser Center for Economic Research

  7. Business Investment Spending Annual Percentage Change Source: IHS, LAEDC

  8. Federal Budget Receipts & Outlays as Percentage of GDP Source: Office of Management & Budget Kyser Center for Economic Research

  9. Global Economic Outlook Annual % Growth Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, July 2014 Update Kyser Center for Economic Research

  10. U.S. Labor Market in Expansion Phase 12/2007 – 6/2009 Months Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  11. U-Rate ApproachingNatural Rate (mid-5%) Seasonally Adjusted, Sept 2014: 5.9% Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Kyser Center for Economic Research

  12. U.S. Nonfarm Job Growth Steady MTM changes in thousands, Seasonally Adjusted Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Kyser Center for Economic Research

  13. Q: When Will Fed Raise Rates? • Quantitative Easing (QE) • Short Term Rates in second half of 2015

  14. Declining Labor Force Participation Rate - - Structural or Cyclical? Earliest Boomers Hit 65 Yrs in 2011! Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Kyser Center for Economic Research

  15. High % of Part-Time Employment:Structural or Cyclical? Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Kyser Center for Economic Research

  16. Wage Gains vs. Inflation Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Kyser Center for Economic Research

  17. Q: When Will Fed Raise Rates? • Fed to end Quantitative Easing (QE) soon • Fed to raise short term rates in second half of 2015 • Concern about Fed getting ‘ahead of the curve’ and ability to react to future events

  18. U.S. Economy to Accelerate in 2015 Forecast Source: LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research

  19. The State and Local Economies

  20. Economic Comparisons 2013 GDP Moved up from 9th place! Source: BLS, LAEDC estimates Kyser Center for Economic Research

  21. California U-Rate Falling Quickly… Source: US BLS, CA EDD Kyser Center for Economic Research

  22. …and Adding Jobs Faster than U.S. Source: US BLS, CA EDD Kyser Center for Economic Research

  23. Job Trends by California Metro Area Annual percent change in nonfarm jobs Sept. 2014: +297,000, +1.9% YTY Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division

  24. Job Trends by Industry – CA Annual percent change in nonfarm jobs Sept. 2014: +297,000, +1.9% YTY Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research

  25. California – Steady Progress Forecast Source: LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research

  26. Local Unemployment Rates September 2014 Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division, NSA

  27. Job Trends by Industry – Los Angeles YTY % change in nonfarm employment Sept. 2014: +73,800 jobs, +1.8% YTY Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research

  28. Job Trends by Industry – San Gabriel Valley 2012-2013 change in nonfarm employment, Thousands 35,622 jobs | 5.9% Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division Kyser Center for Economic Research

  29. San Gabriel Valley Employment Trends Annual average employment, thousands Sources: California EDD., LMID ES202 data

  30. Average Annual Wage by Region, 2013 Source: California EDD., LMID, ES202 data

  31. San Gabriel Valley Taxable Retail Sales Annual % change $Millions Source: California State Board of Equalization (2001-11), LAEDC (2012-13)

  32. Trade • Entertainment • Business Services • Private Education Institutions • Aerospace & Analytical Instruments • Fashion & Apparel Manufacturing • Hospitality • Local Serving: Retail, Medical Major Industries in Southern California Kyser Center for Economic Research

  33. Container Throughput San Pedro Bay Ports Millions of TEUs Sources: Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach; forecast by LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research

  34. Southern California Manufacturing Employment Source: California EDD Kyser Center for Economic Research

  35. Manufacturing Trends Kyser Center for Economic Research

  36. Value of Manufacturing Output, California Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; IHS Kyser Center for Economic Research Kyser Center for Economic Research

  37. Home Sales & Median Prices L.A. County New and existing, single-family homes and condos Sales Price, Thousands Source: California Real Estate Research Council; DataQuick

  38. Residential Building Permits Issued in Los Angeles County Source: CIRB, California Home Building Foundation, forecast by LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research

  39. Residential Building Permits Issued inSan Gabriel Valley Permitted housing units 21.4% Source: CIRB, California Home Building Foundation, forecast by LAEDC

  40. U.S. Five-Year Forecast Forecast Source: IHS, LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research

  41. California Five-Year Forecast Forecast Source: IHS, LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research

  42. New Home Construction to Drive Growth Forecast Source: IHS, LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research

  43. Job Gains Continue Forecast Source: LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research Kyser Center for Economic Research

  44. CA Population Changes 2014-24 2014 2024 Kyser Center for Economic Research

  45. Implications For…

  46. For Further Insight into the Local Economy find our Mid-Year Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook online at www.LAEDC.org/reports • Keep up with economic news and major developments by subscribing to e-EDGE, our free weekly economic newsletter. Check out the current issue at www.LAEDC.org/eEdge

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