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Assessing Earthquake Impact: Asset Damage, Casualties, and Water Supply Challenges

This analysis focuses on the impact of earthquakes on building fragility and casualty rates, specifically based on 10,000 simulations conducted using RiskScape for the Christchurch earthquake on February 22. The study examines how damage to buildings correlates with occupant safety, asset loss, and the operation of essential infrastructures like pipelines. Additionally, it discusses the critical issue of water supply, highlighting potential risks related to water shortages as stored resources may last only about 20 days post-disaster.

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Assessing Earthquake Impact: Asset Damage, Casualties, and Water Supply Challenges

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  1. Assets, damage, deaths, thirst Jim Cousins

  2. Creations • Buildings • Occupants (day & night) • Earthquake shaking • Fragility and casualty rates • Pipelines • Failure rates

  3. Buildings model

  4. Fragility functions

  5. 10,000 runs of RiskScape – Christchurch Quake 22nd Feb

  6. 10,000 runs of RiskScape – Christchurch Quake 22nd Feb NB: Log scale, and building occupants only

  7. Wellington & Lower Hutt – Wellington Fault rupture – 10,000 runs

  8. 10,000 runs NB: Log scale , and building occupants only

  9. Thirst

  10. Time for stored water to run out ……….. 20 days?

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