Domenico ROSSETTI European Commission, DG Research & Innovation *

1. European Science Foundation (ESF)Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung (WZB)Berlin, 16-17 February 2011Social sciences and ForesightA European perspective Domenico ROSSETTI European Commission, DG Research & Innovation* Domenico.Rossetti-di-Valdalbero@ec.europa.eu * Personally speaking

2. EU Forward Looking Activities Foresight, Forecast, Horizon scanning, Technology Assessment, Impact Assessment, Prospective Quantitative and qualitative approaches A long tradition in the EU European Commission: Cellule de Prospective, Multiannual Financial Perspectives, long-term planning EP: Scientific Technology Options Assessment (STOA) Council and Member States: Joint Programming (JPI) European Council: Gonzalez Report « Europe 2030 »

3. Objectives of EU FLA To anticipate new societal challenges To advise on the main changes that the World and Europe will have to face in the next decades To inspire EU policies by imaginative thoughts To evaluate the economic and social impacts of EU proposals (ex-ante Impact Assessment) To scan the weak signals and the wild cards including the potential technological and social breakthroughs To shape a more sustainable future

4. Methods: Quantitative and qualitative

5. FLA and EU policy-making Europe 2020 Strategy: Smart, sustainable and inclusive growth Innovation Union Flagship Initiative: Commitment 8: Science base for policy-making and “European Forum on FLA” Green Paper “From challenges to opportunities: Towards a common strategic framework for EU research and innovation funding”

6. Europe 2020 Strategy targets 75 % of the population aged 20-64 should be employed 3% of the EU's GDP should be invested in R&D The "20/20/20" climate/energy targets should be met The share of early school leavers should be under 10% and at least 40% of the younger generation should have a tertiary degree 20 million less people should be at risk of poverty

7. EU FLA in Social Sciences • European Foresight Platform (EFP) • The World and Europe in 2030 (AUGUR) and Global Europe 2030/2050 • The future of the Mediterranean area (MEDPRO) and EuroMed-2030 • The evaluation of EU policies (DEMETER) • Science, Technology and Innovation (FARHORIZON, INFU, SESTI, CIVISTI) • Wild cards and weak signals (IKNOW) • Post carbon society (PACT, GILDED, PASHMINA) • Security and defence (SANDERA)

8. Methods: Prediction and hope Level of detail Quantifiabiity Degree of objectivity Probability Market forecasts HIGH Economic forecasts Perspectives Scenarios Futurology Timeframe Scope of assumptions Systemic perspectives LOW MONTHS YEARS DECADES Source: Fraunhofer - Envisioning future research horizons

9. Modesty is a must Financial and economic crises Technological developments Social habits Political movements …

10. The World in 2025 Trends 61% of world population in Asia, EU: 6,5% 35% of the European population will be old More than 30% of GDP produced by Asia, less than 20% in EU Asia is the 1st world exporter (EU 32%, Asia 35%) Asia on par with US & Europe in the field of R&D Globalization of R&D means that access to knowledge is key Source: EC, World in 2025

11. China (1453) India (1431) EU-27 (517) USA (358) Indonesia (263) Pakistan (246) Brazil (214) Nigeria (210) Bangladesh (195) Russia (132) Mexico (123) Japan (120) Ethiopia (119) Philippines (117) Egypt (105) Not a single European country in this list Largest countries by 2025 (100 million or over) Source: UN

12. TensionsResources and risks (2025) In 2025 resources are scarce and the absence of global regulation and distribution mechanisms involves risks: 1/3 of the population undernourished or badly nourished Carbon-based energy remains dominant 3 billion people will not have access to water More and more competition on land If EU not followed on climate change policy, a warming of less than two degrees is unlikely

13. Tensions: The energy example • Future Total Primary Energy Supply • 1970: 5000 Mtoe • 1990: 8000 Mtoe • 2010: ~ 12000 Mtoe • 2030: ~ 17000 Mtoe • What’s next? • USA: 8 toe/cap 5% of population and 23% of consumption • Europe: 4 toe/cap 10% of population and 20% of consumption • China: 1 toe/cap 21% of population and 12% of consumption

14. EU energy imports Source: European Commission, DG TREN

15. World and EU GDP Source: European Commission, DG RTD (WETO)

16. World (ageing) population Source: European Commission, DG RTD (VLEEM)

17. EU27 30 +4.7 25 20 +2.4 15 % of GDP +1.5 10 -0.2 +1.1 -0.2 5 0 Pensions Health care Long-term care Education Unemployment Total benefits 2007 2060 Cost of ageing in Europe Source: European Commission – H. Bogaert, Ageing Report

18. Population change in the EU After 2025, reduction of the EU population (520 millions) Source: United Nations

19. EU transport Source: European Commission, Eurostat and DG TREN

20. Megacities Source: Davies / Le Quément (rounded figures)

21. Increasing urbanisation URBAN 37% URBAN 47% RURAL 40% URBAN 60% RURAL 63% RURAL 53% 1970 2000 2030 Source: UN-Habitat

22. Some questions Services economy Public policies Intangible investments Consumer behaviours Technological and social innovation New indicators

23. Potential transitions – Towards… • A multi-polar world and world governance • Thrust relationships - hard / soft power • A new universalism • A large integrated Europe and a “global Europe” • An active and healthy ageing • A new socio-ecological production and consumption model

24. Conclusions Gonzalez Report “Europe 2030” Europe is at a crossroads: either we keep and strengthen the role as one of the main global actors, or we become an "increasingly irrelevant outgrowth on the Asian continent"

25. Another view of the world Source: http://www.flagslist.com/maps/Asia/asia-map.gif

26. More information http://ec.europa.eu/research/social-sciences/