Introduction and Background

1. The Asian Nuclear Reaction Chainby Joseph Cirincione – Published Spring 2000Presented by Casey Peterson – INR 2001 Introduction and Background • Treaty History- Second Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START II) – 1993- Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) – 1968- Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) – Not Ratified by the US Senate • Who to blame for the recent unraveling of arms control?- Russian Duma – dragged out ratification of START II- British & French – insisted on onerous provisions of CTBT- Militant Hindu nationalism – ignited Indian-Pakistani arms race- Chinese & North Koreans – make political statements with missiles- Saddam Hussein – developing lethal arsenal- US is most to blame – failed leadership • Author worries that US will dismantle diplomatic restraints and move from builder to destroyer of non-proliferation regime with increased weaponry, and Asia is most at risk

2. Approaching Critical Mass: Japan and Nuclear Technology • Two new developments make Asian nuclear situation volatile:1. Technologies and capabilities have advanced; now nations can make nuclear weapons faster2. US is backing away from its commitments to the international nonproliferation regime and is taking actions that could catalyze the reaction chain • Japan might, therefore, seek nuclear development because:- Indian-Pakistani nuclear development has increased the number of Asian countries with nuclear weapons twofold- North Korea’s test launch of a long-range Taepo Dong missile- “We ought to have aircraft carriers, long-range missiles, long-range bombers. We should even have the atomic bomb.” Vice Defense Minister Shingo Nishimura • Why Japan’s transition to a nuclear state would be feasible:- Japan has a plutonium-based nuclear-energy infastructure- Japan’s space launch rockets could be converted into missiles • Cirincione warns that Japan’s withdrawal from the NPT would “almost certainly trigger the collapse of the treaty”

3. Nuclear Dominoes: The Asian Chain Reaction • India and Pakistan both have nuclear weaponry- Summer 1999’s Indian-Pakistani conflict over the Kashmir region came “very close” to a nuclear exchange- Indian nuclear development occurred following China’s 1964 test- “If India operationalizes its nuclear weapons, then Pakistan will be obliged to follow suit.” Shamshad Ahmed, Pakistani foreign secretary • Why China developed Nuclear Weapons- China was forced to develop its weapons to counter the US- Historians cite at least 5 times where the US threatened China with nuclear weaponry when China had no such capability- “You do not have the strategic leverage that you had in the 1950s when you threatened nuclear strikes on us. You were able to do that because we could not hit back. But if you hit us now, we can hit back. So you will not make those threats. In the end you care more about Los Angeles than you do about Taipei.” Quoted from a Chinese General in the New York Times

4. The Chain Grows: The Merits of Missile Defense Systems • The United States is advancing missile systems to counter potentially powerful Asian competitors; US seeks Japanese and Taiwanese cooperation- Originally, Taiwan and Japan dismissed missile defense systems, citing technical and financial inability- Taiwan now embraces cooperation in an attempt to bind the United States closer to Taiwan’s security- Japan now embraces cooperation because of North Korea’s test of the Taepo Dong missile & is seeking to demonstrate strategic value to the US • Neither China nor Russia think that the US needs missile defense to protect itself from North Korea- They think that such development would allow the US to launch a first strike and then use missile defenses to minimize damage from any retaliation- Missile defense systems have been what has delayed Russian ratification of START II- China has recently spent $9.7 billion to upgrade nuclear forces to allow a “vigorous counterattack once hegemonists and their military alliance use nuclear weapons to make a surprise attack on China”

5. Nuclear Wild Cards: New Russian and Korean Threats • A threat in possible Russian fragmentation into separate, nuclear states- In 1991, Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan agreed to partial disarmament and return of warheads to Russia, and agreement to the NPT as non- weapon states- However, Moscow’s control over regions is weakening- In 1998, Alexander Lebed, governor of the Krasnoyarsk region threatened to take control of that region’s nuclear weapons, citing that officers there were “hungry and angry,” having not been paid in months • South Korean unification with North Korea could lead to a nuclear state- South Korea has demanded the right to its own missiles- North Korea has deployed large numbers of long-range missiles, while South Korea is limited to short-range missiles by the Missile Technology Control Regime, which bans the transfer or sale of missiles with a range of more than 300km- South Korea has planned a satellite-launch facility- Unification could lead to a nuclear state with a mix of southern manufacturing expertise and northern experience in missile and plutonium production

6. Breaking the Chain: How to Avoid an Asian Powder Keg • The Eastern view of the NPT:- Non-Western states resent the “do as I say, not as I do” philosophy of the West- Indian officials have even called the NPT “nuclear apartheid”- Not one country with nuclear weapons when the NPT was signed has given them up • Risks we currently face- Without the test ban treaty & reductions in US and Russian arsenals, the NPT will lose credibility- Deployment of missile defenses could weaken the Missile Technology Control Regime, encouraging missile proliferation- Nuclear insecurities and regional tensions could freeze foreign investments, curbing economic growth worldwide • How the US can help the problem- Increase understanding of regional dynamics in Asia- Expanding national resources devoted to regional and international negotiations- Have the courage to lead by example: reduce drastically the nuclear arms in the US arsenal to encourage the same worldwide

7. Discussion Questions • Do you agree with the author that a serious threat will arise if North and South Korea become unified? • Is the best course of action for US national defense to accumulate weapons or to set an example by reducing the amount of nuclear arms in the US arsenal?