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Building Rockstar Estimating Skills

Building Rockstar Estimating Skills. Ron Smith. Maritime DevCon. Estimating. Manager vs. Dev Brian. Want a promotion?. Month over Month. Agenda. Manager (project start / end) – Dev (project start / end) Our focus changes as the project progresses.

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Building Rockstar Estimating Skills

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  1. Building Rockstar Estimating Skills Ron Smith Maritime DevCon

  2. Estimating Manager vs. Dev Brian Want a promotion? Month over Month Agenda Manager (project start / end) – Dev (project start / end) Our focus changes as the project progresses You should test out your estimate when possible Communication and planning vs. technical ability Discussion Item Five – A Placeholder for text Is Estimation Art, Science, or a combination? Having the right resources at the right timeMake the connection between estimation and corporate culture. Test your estimate Wanna Bet? Art or Science?

  3. Manager Brain vs. Dev Brain @ Project Startup… How long will it take to build a new customer screen?? Dev - Brain Manager -Brain • I just want to start coding • Does not sound that hard • I’m busy – not much time for detail • Need to present the funding amount for approval. • Need to size the project correctly. • I wonder if the person I’m speaking with usually under estimates, over estimates or is pretty good. • I wonder if we will run into issues. 8 hours 16 hours

  4. Manager Brain vs. Dev Brain Does the Project Manager have the IRON CLAD details? • Like a lawyer going in front of a judge pleading a case… • Sr. Management will try to reduce the estimate • The end client will try to reduce the estimate • one “I don’t know” = funding cut.

  5. Manager vs. Dev Brains @ 3 weeks into project… How long will it take to build a new customer screen?? Dev - Brain Manager -Brain • I’ve been to a lot of meetings • Project Kick off (1 hour) • Requirements gathering (3 hours) • Requirements review (1 hour) • 2 weekly teem meetings (2 hours) • Now they want a prototype built… I can do that in 4 hours • I’ll track total project spend per month. I forget my estimate Not focused

  6. Manager Brain vs. Dev Brain @ project closeout… How long will it take to build a new customer screen?? Dev - Brain Manager -Brain • I’ve built something great • Client should be happy • On to my next project • Project is way over budget / time • The business case is blown • Client is already mad • How am I going to explain this? • Why did that 8 hour screen take 148 hours? Detailed look

  7. Promotion? Estimating: Danger!! How long will it take to do x?? • Step 1: Don’t answer • You are about to influence corporate culture. • Step 2: Ask these questions • Do I need to attend weekly or specific project meetings? • Do I need to follow a formal process (which one)? • Is a prototype required? • Is there a working app today that I’ll be adding to – or is this net new? Does a db exist already? • Do I have to interface with an outside Vendor? • Does this have to work in the DR model? • Will I be participating in requirements gathering?

  8. Promotion? Estimating: Danger!! How long will it take to do x?? • Step 2 (continued): • Are you expecting a design or test cases from me? • Will I be running Integration, System or UAT testing? • How does this project rank among the other corporate projects? • Are the requirements written already? Can I see them? • Will I need to be on stand by to test with other projects? • Will data be provided to me or is a sample dummy subset ok.

  9. Promotion? Estimating: Danger!! How long will it take to do x?? • Step 2 (continued): • Would you like me to help with the Install? • Will there be release / install docs? • Any risks or dependencies to this work? • What time of year are you running this project? • Step 3: • The answers above should come from your manager in writing. • Add to the above list with your own questions. • Keep a risk and issue log from past projects… bring them up @ estimation time.

  10. Promotion? Estimating: Danger!! How long will it take to do x?? • Step 4 • Keep your own personal estimation history with dates and write down who received it… • Offer to help the manager with the estimate. • Ask your manager for your % allocation by project and by Month

  11. Compare your planned vs recorded time A second line of text can go here. Planned: Budget for the work. Actual: What you billed / recorded Variance: The difference / plan Diff: Actual – Planned Companies must keep true historical record of their projects

  12. Test your Estimate / Re-Estimate Porting of screens example Server side 80% screens working Client Side (0% working) • Oracle 10g backend • Standard SQL allowed • Typical Web server • Server (online) • Oracle Lite (subset of structure) • ANSI SQL (subset of SQL functions) • Web Server: Oracle Web-to-Go normally used for handhelds • Laptop (can work offline)

  13. Estimate / Test / Re-estimate Port 100 screens Initial Estimate • 1/2 day per screen • 50 days Test your estimate • 33 High – 4 days • 33 Med – 3 days • 34 LOW – 2 days • 299 days Re-estimate… • Land on 250 days If you give me 3 days I can try one and that will allow us to make a good estimate.

  14. Month over Month Spread of resources Spreading your estimate over the months correctly is just as important as getting the total project estimate correct.

  15. Month over Month Spread of resources Spreading your estimate over the months correctly is just as important as getting the total project estimate correct. If you can keep the team size consistent you will get faster.

  16. Productivity How many hours / day is the industry productive? 8-1 Ratio between your fastest and slowest resource in IT. Is there a technological or cultural factor measure? Some hard times of the year to run a project are Summer, March Break & Christmas. Are we getting faster over time? Are the same resources present? What is your corporate plan?

  17. Wanna Bet? Have fun with Estimates Bet your team mates OR provide an incentive • Give an estimate • Wanna wager you are off by 50%? • The team member with the closest estimate gets a prize. • PERT (optimistic + likely*4 + pessimistic)/6 • Note: Your company is betting the project will be worth it.

  18. Art or Science Some science

  19. Art or Science Evidence Based Scheduling – fogbugs Function Point counting – difficult with different technologies Shopping Cart Sizing Excel spreadsheet including total project Historical analysis

  20. Estimation is an issue that needs buy-in from each individual resource to the CEO of a company to work well. Ron Smith: Mariner ron.smith@marinerpartners.com Maritimes JUG: ron@maritimes-jug.ca Careertown: ron@Careertown.ca

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