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Air Force Research Laboratory

Air Force Research Laboratory. Space Weather (SWx) at AFRL. Dr. Joel B. Mozer, Chief Space Weather Center of Excellence Hanscom AFB, MA. Space Weather Overview. Introduction Space Weather Center of Excellence (CoE) Organization SWx Research & Development Selected CoE Programs/Products.

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Air Force Research Laboratory

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  1. Air Force Research Laboratory Space Weather (SWx) at AFRL Dr. Joel B. Mozer, Chief Space Weather Center of Excellence Hanscom AFB, MA

  2. Space WeatherOverview • Introduction • Space Weather Center of Excellence (CoE) Organization • SWx Research & Development • Selected CoE Programs/Products

  3. Space Weather IntroductionMission To develop and transition affordable technologiesfor specifying, forecasting, mitigating, and exploitingthe effects of the space environmenton DoD systems and operations

  4. Space Situational Awareness Offensive Counterspace Counterspace Mission Objective: Maintain the mission capabilities of friendly space forces and deny the adversary use of space • DefensiveCounterspace • Characterize, assess the impact of, and predict natural space environments • Maintain Space Order of Battle • Detect space objects • Track and monitor • Characterize and classify • Protect space capabilities from natural and manmade threats • Detect and evaluate potential threats • Active and Passive Defensive measures • Detect, characterize, assess and report attacks • Prevent adversaries use of space capabilities Understand our theater … Protect our systems … Provide graduated response…

  5. Space EnvironmentSpace Control Perspective DCS Survive & endure Avoid Restore & Reconstitute Reconfigure OCS Negate Deny Adversary Disrupt Capabilities Degrade Destroy Suppress threat Suppress attacker (preempt) SSA Detect, track, Characterize, Catalog: All earth orbiting objects IBP - Determine missions and vulnerabilities SA – Target ID, location, status and strike assessment Detect, track, characterize,& warn of threat Anomaly determination Monitor & predict space environment

  6. VSBX Integrated Approach Ionosphere Solar Physics Interplanetary Space Magnetosphere Radiation Belts SSA COUPLED MODELS

  7. Space Weather IntroductionOrganization AFRL/VSBXSpace WeatherCenter of Excellence Dr. J. Mozer, ChiefMaj(sel) K. Labowski, DeputyDr. D. Cooke, Tech Advisor AFOSR/NMMathematics &Space SciencesDirectorate VSBXSECTIONS VSBXPROGRAMS

  8. Space Weather IntroductionOrganization AFRL/VSBXSpace WeatherCenter of Excellence Dr. J. Mozer, ChiefMaj(sel) K. Labowski, DeputyDr. D. Cooke, Tech Advisor AFOSR/NMMathematics &Space SciencesDirectorate VSBXIIonospheric Hazards Specification & Forecast Dr. Chin Lin, Chief VSBXSSolar and Solar Wind Disturbance Prediction Dr. R. Radick, Chief VSBXSECTIONS VSBXSECTIONS VSBXPSpace Plasma Disturbance Specification & Forecast Dr. O. de La Beaujardiere, Chief VSBXRSpace Particle Hazards Specification & Forecast Dr. K. Kadinsky-Cade, Chief VSBXTSpace Weather Effects Dr. D. Hunton, Chief VSBXPROGRAMS

  9. Space Weather IntroductionOrganization AFRL/VSBXSpace WeatherCenter of Excellence Dr. J. Mozer, ChiefMaj(sel) K. Labowski, DeputyDr. D. Cooke, Tech Advisor AFOSR/NMMathematics &Space SciencesDirectorate VSBXSECTIONS VSBXPROGRAMS VSBXPROGRAMS Solar DisturbancePrediction Dr. Nathan Dalrymple, PM C/NOFS Dr. L. Jeong, PM Space Particle Hazards Dr. Kevin Ray, PM RBR LtCol. Jon Shoenberg, PM Ionospheric Impacts Dr. Keith Groves, PM BMT Capt J. Sillence, PM (Hanscom) HAARP Dr. P. Kossey, PM

  10. Space Weather IntroductionOrganization AFRL/VSBXSpace WeatherCenter of Excellence Dr. J. Mozer, ChiefMaj(sel) K. Labowski, DeputyDr. D. Cooke, Tech Advisor AFOSR/NMMathematics &Space SciencesDirectorate VSBXSECTIONS VSBXPROGRAMS

  11. Space Weather IntroductionSo What? Who Cares? Direct Request From CENTCOM for AFRL Space Weather Support PRIORITY ROUTINE P R 291449Z AUG 00 FM USCINCCENT MACDILL AFB FL//CCJ6-C// TO HQ USSPACECOM PETERSON AFB CO//J6/J3/J33/J6S/J5R// UNCLAS SUBJ/SCINTILLATION FORECASTING SYSTEMS// RMKS/1. RECENTLY, REPRESENTATIVES FROM AFSPACECOM AND AIR FORCE RESEARCH LABORATORY (AFRL) BRIEFED THE PROPOSED COMMUNICATIONS NAVIGATION OUTAGE FORECASTING SYSTEM (C/NOFS) ADVANCED CONCEPT TECHNOLOGY DEMONSTRATION (ACTD)… WE BELIEVE THE ABILITY OF A SYSTEM TO PROVIDE REAL TIME FORECAST WILL GREATLY IMPROVE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS AS WELL AS INCREASED FORCECAST ACCURACY, ALLOWING OUR WARFIGHTERS TO ADJUST AND ADAPT TO OPERATIONS AS NEEDED… 2. IN ADDITION, A SCINTILLATION NETWORK DECISION AID (SCINDA) TECHNOLOGY DEMONSTRATION WAS RECENTLY FIELDED IN OUR AOR WITH VERY PROMISING RESULTS… 3. USCENTCOM FULLY SUPPORTS THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE C/NOFS ACTD IN THE CENTCOM AOR AND REQUEST CLOSE COORDINATION WITH CCJ6-C FOR THE POTENTIAL DEPLOYMENT OF ADDITIONAL SCINDA SYSTEMS AND THE IMPLEMENTATION OF C/NOFS IN THE CENTCOM AOR.// SATCOM Outage for CENTCOM AOR MAJCOMs Care About Space Weather

  12. Space Weather ImpactsImpact on Ops Sun can directly cause RF, X-ray, and optical interference, in addition to releasing massive quantities of energetic particles Space particles cause radiation degradation and surface/internal charging/discharging leading to outages and anomalies Scintillation Upper atmospheric density causes satellite drag, degrading LEO operations Ionospheric scintillation degrades GPS-aided system capability and UHF SATCOM Ionospheric phenomena cause comm/nav link degradation and outages and surveillance clutter Adversaries can induce high-energy particle and RF wave-based hazards

  13. Space Weather R&DDoD Needs

  14. Space Weather R&DCurrent SWx Support System Classified IMAGE DoD GEO GOES GPS/NDS ACE POES DMSP SOHO Yohkoh KEY DoD Civil Int’l SPACE SYSTEMS 55th SWx Squadron(AFWA) Space Environment Center(NOAA) DMSP DoD Users Commercial Users National Solar Observatories (2)JPL TEC Monitors (25)Archival CenterUSGS Magnetometer Net (13) National Solar Observatories (2)JPL TEC Monitors (25)Archival CenterUSGS Magnetometer Net (13) GROUND SYSTEMS Solar Observing Optical Net (4)Radio Solar Telescope Net (4)Digital Ionospheric Sounding Sys (16)Ionospheric Measuring Sys (5)Neutron Monitor (1)Riometer (1) Solar Observing Optical Net (4)Radio Solar Telescope Net (4)Digital Ionospheric Sounding Sys (16)Ionospheric Measuring Sys (5)Neutron Monitor (1)Riometer (1) Canadian Radio ObservatoryAustralian ObservatoryAustralian Ionospheric Net (5) * AFRL SupportedSystems

  15. Space Weather R&DNSSA Architecture (1999) Telescope package hosted on HEO satellite Sensor suite hosted on 3 NPOESS(DMSP-type) 1 STEREO satellite 10 Sensors (Polar) SCINTILLATION (SCINDA-type) All-Sky Cameras (10) 1 Sun-Earth-LineInterplanetary satellite Riometer 18 SBIRS - LO Satellite Drag from Tracking Network 2 GEO satellitesSolar & Earth Observations (SMEI-type on GOES-type) 4 SEON(ISOON-type) 1 LEO equatorial satellite (C/NOFS-type) 20 Sensors (Geomagnetic Equator) SCINTILLATION (SCINDA-type) 50 Sensor Packages (Worldwide) GPS/VHF, Ionosonde, Magnetometer, etc KEY GROUND-BASED SPACE-BASEDSENSOR-TYPE Piggy-back packages of particle detectors hosted on many satellites(CEASE-type)

  16. Space Weather R&DKey Research Areas GOALS RESEARCH AREAS • Ground-Based & Space-Based Sensors • Specification & Climatological Models • Forecast Models • Effects Mitigation & Exploitation • Accurate, timely, andglobal specification and forecast of SWx • Survivable space systems

  17. Space Weather R&D1. Ground-Based & Space-Based Sensors CHALLENGE Recent Examples • Space weather specification capabilities are data starved • Need coverage on global spatial scales and time scales of seconds to years • Spaced-based sensors are expensive • Ground-based sensors are often inconvenient CEASECompact Environmental Anomaly Sensor Experiment SOLUTION • Develop sensors that are more ‘deployable’ • Low cost, miniaturized, high-resolution, and high-dynamic range sensors • Maximize autonomous operations capabilities SMEISolar Mass Ejection Imager

  18. Space Weather R&D2. Specification & Climatological Models Recent Examples CHALLENGE • Gaps in data result from incomplete coverage of sensors • Need global continuous coverage for real-time situational awareness • Need initial conditions for forecast models • Need long-term dynamic climatogolies for systems acquisition AF-GEOSPACESpace Environment Models (Version 2.0) SOLUTION • Develop empirical, assimilative, and/or physics-based models • In general, the more data the better • Error bars are essential for users (i.e. extensive validation) PRISMParameterized Real-timeIonospheric Specification Model

  19. Space Weather R&D3. Forecast Models Recent Examples CHALLENGE • Priority Forecast RequirementsIonosphere Forecast: 0-24 hours (USAF)Geomagnetic Storm Forecast: 0-1 hour (power grids) • Requires thorough understanding of basic processes in the space environment • Models & observations must be coupled across different domains DILBERTDiffusion in (I,L,B) Energetic Radiation Transport Code SOLUTION • Physics-based & quasi-empirical models • Focus on forecasting information the user needs • Must achieve low false alarm rates DMSP Scintillation Forecast Algorithm

  20. Space Weather R&D4. Effects Mitigation & Exploitation Recent Examples CHALLENGE • Ultimate Goal: ‘All-weather’ capability • Passive Approach: Alter design, materials, & concept of operations (CONOPS) • Active Approach: Modify the system and/or environment in near real-time NASCAP-2KNASA-Air Force Spacecraft ChargingAnalysis Program (2000 Release) SOLUTION • Improve design tools and explore active techniques • Must understand space weather effects on rapidly changing technologies • Global modification techniques also have space force applications Active Wave ExperimentConcept Design Study

  21. AFRL Programs in SWxSelected AFRL Programs • OpSEND – Operational Space Environment Network Display • ISOON – Improved Solar Observing Optical Network • SCINDA – Scintillation Network Decision Aid • SMEI – Solar Mass Ejection Imager • C/NOFS – Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System • HAARP – High-frequency Active Auroral Research Program • RBR – Radiation Belt Remediation • 72-hour Space Weather Forecasting for DoD Ops

  22. AFRL Programs in SWx1. OpSEND Operational Space Environment Network Display • Who: Used by operators of space-based comm, nav, and ISR systems • What: First operational space weather impact map product • When: Developed mid-1990s • Details: • Provides nowcast & 1-hr forecast of degradation in HF system performance • Produced in real-time • Output is network distributed • Updated every half hour HF Illumination Map (Nowcast) UHF Scintillation Map (Forecast)

  23. AFRL Programs in SWx2. ISOON Improved Solar Observing Optical Network • Who: Operated by AFRL for research & limited support to SWx operations • What: Semi-autonomous telescope that studies solar activity (currently 1 site) • Where: Sacramento Peak, NM (National Solar Observatory) • When: Demonstrated 2002 • Details: • Acquires solar images in H-alpha line (every min), in continuum (every 10 min) • Replacing SOON (4 sites worldwide); lower O&M costs Solar Image in H-Alpha Sunspot Image in Continuum

  24. AFRL Programs in SWx3. SCINDA Scintillation Network Decision Aid • Who: Used by AFRL for research & by AFWA for operational support • What: Ground-based sensor & comp. model system that specifies/forecasts SATCOM outages due to ionospheric scintillation • Where: 11 sites worldwide along equator • When: Developed late-1990s to present • Details: • Real-time, data-driven, updated every 15 min • Will combine with C/NOFS observations for improved scintillation nowcasts/forecasts SCINDA Tri-Color Disturbance Map

  25. AFRL Programs in SWx4. SMEI Solar Mass Ejection Imager • Who: Operated by AFRL and two universities • What: All-sky camera experiment aboard the Coriolis spacecraft that detects/images coronal mass ejections (CMEs) • Where: Sun-synchronous circular orbit (840 km) • When: Launched 6 Jan 2003 • Details: • Produces all-sky maps each orbit (101 min) • Imaged 100s of CMEs since 2003 launch • Will improve 1-3 day forecasts of geomagnetic storms SMEI Movies(CLICK HERE) SMEI: 3-Camera Configuration Halo CME (May 03)

  26. AFRL Programs in SWx5. C/NOFS Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System • Who: Jointly developed by AFRL and DoD Space Test Program (SMC Det 12) • What: Satellite that locates and forecasts scintillation regions in the low latitude ionosphere • Where: Elliptical low earth orbit (400 x 710 km) • When: Scheduled for launch in 2006 • Details: • Contains 6 on-board instrument packages • Produces outage forecast maps for users • Forecast capability expected to grow from 3-6 hour to 2-5 days C/NOFS Satellite Drawings

  27. AFRL Programs in SWx6. HAARP High-Frequency Active Auroral Research Program • Who: Air Force/Navy/DARPA joint program • What: World-class facility for ionosphere and radio science research to exploit emerging technology for next generation DoD systems • Where: Gakona, Alaska • When: 3600 kW facility completion in 2006 Operating at 960 kW since 1999 • Details: • Phased-array HF transmitter • Extensive array of diagnostic support instruments • RF transmissions generate effects observable from ULF (< 1 HZ) to UV (~1015Hz) HAARP Movie(CLICK HERE) Aurora over HAARP Antenna Array HAARP HF Antenna Array

  28. AFRL Programs in SWx7. RBR Radiation Belt Remediation • Problem: High altitude nuclear detonation increases level of trapped radiation in LEO (e.g. 400 km); lifetime of space assets is significantly reduced • Solution Approach: Employ space-based VLF transmitters to “push” trapped particles out of the radiation belts and increase likelihood of satellite survival • Program Details: • Currently conducting proof-of-concept experiments using ground-based VLF transmitters and receivers to validate an end-to-end physics-based operational Radiation Belt Remediation system model • Developing VLF transmitter experiment to include on the Demonstration Space Experiment (DSX) satellite (launch after 2008) Radiation Belt Remediation:Conceptual Drawing DSX: “Stowed” Configuration

  29. AFRL Programs in SWx8. 72 Hour Forecasts 6.1 / SBIR 6.2 6.3 6.3 Integrated Demo Other Funding Leveraged Program Funded Transition Unfunded Transition Technology Readiness Level 5 Transition Point (TAD) Spiral S1 Mid Near Far 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 ------- 2025 Solar Forecasting SDO+SOLGUARD Solar Sentinels Observational Inputs for Physical Models 3 4 Total = $25M (0/20/5) ATST First Science ATST “Operational” Adv Tech Solar Telescope (NASA/NSF) 3D MHD Heliospheric propagation models 3D Fluid Coronal Models w/ physical inputs Solar Physics Models 6 6 Total = $32M (7/25/0) Ionospheric Impacts Space Flag SCINDA II upgrade SCINDA III upgrade Tactical Iono Sensor Demo Op C/NOFS Launch Measure Total = $34M (0/34/0) 6 6 6 12-hr Forecast of Scintillation 48-hr Forecast of Scintillation 6-hr Forecast of Scintillation 24-hr Forecast of Scintillation Model Total = $32M (3/29/0) 6 6 6 6 Space Radiation & Plasma Hazards Space Flag Ops design validated Total = $30M (0/30/0) Environment/effects sensors 6 6 6 5 Full SEDARS and nano- sensor space demo Next-generation sensor technology Space tests of SEDARS components on satellites of opportunity Low-res real-time global specification 12+ hr, high-res forecast capability 36 hr, high-res specification and forecast capability Specification & forecast models 6 6 6 Total = $28M (4/24/0) 6.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 6.2 8.7 8.4 10.1 10.8 10.7 11.0 11.5 11.8 12.1 12.5 13.0 13.2 65.7 6.3 2.8 2.8 3.3 3.0 3.0 3.4 3.4 3.0 2.9 2.1 2.3 2.6 13.6

  30. Conclusion • Space environment is an increasingly important consideration in military operations • AFRL SWx Center of Excellence is dedicated to exploring the space environment • AFRL contributes significantly to the specification, forecast, mitigation, and exploitation of space weather effects

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