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Load Forecast and Base Case Development

This document outlines the methodologies involved in load forecasting and base case development, with a focus on Substation Transformer Loading (STL) programs. It includes data repository management, analysis of monthly actual peaks and energy consumption, and the formulation of load projections based on historical growth rates and scenarios. Key components such as non-coincident values, fitting the load data, and assumptions for system loads are addressed, alongside considerations for both conforming and non-conforming forecasts.

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Load Forecast and Base Case Development

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  1. Load Forecast and Base Case Development

  2. Load Forecast and Base Case Development

  3. Load Forecast and Base Case Development

  4. Load Forecast and Base Case Development

  5. Load Forecast and Base Case Development

  6. Load Forecast and Base Case Development • Substation Transformer Loading (STL) Program • Data repository • Monthly actual peaks/energy • Load projections • Growth rates

  7. Populating the database • STL • Non-coincident values • Forecast data • “Fitting” the load • Conforming vs. Non-conforming • ‘Scrunch’ factor • Load Forecast and Base Case Development

  8. Load level assumptions (e.g., System load) (SUM / WIN) • Historical • 1-in-2 (2014 = 1650 / 1582 MW) • Proposed • 1-in-10 (2014 = 1673 / 1615 MW) • Scenarios: • 1-in-20 (2014 = 1679 / 1624 MW) • 1-in-50 (2014 = 1687 / 1635 MW) • Load Forecast and Base Case Development

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