1 / 34

Labor Force Projections: Trends and Analysis

Gain insights into the future of the labor force by exploring population projections, labor force participation rates, and industry employment trends. Discover the factors driving labor force growth and the impact of demographic changes.

mcaldwell
Télécharger la présentation

Labor Force Projections: Trends and Analysis

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Labor Force Projections Bureau of Labor Statistics Mitra Toossi Toossi_M@bls.gov 202-691-5721

  2. The OEP projections process Labor Force Aggregate Economy Industry Final Demand Industry Output Industry Employment Occupational Demand

  3. The Labor Force--What is Projected? We project the labor force by combining the population projections and the estimation of the trends in the labor force participation rates for: seventeen age groups, two gender groups, and four race and ethnic groups. A total of 136 age, sex, race and ethnic categories.

  4. Definitions: • Civilian labor force comprises all persons 16 years of age and older in the civilian noninstitutional population who: -are working at full-or part-time jobs, or -are unemployed but are actively seeking work • Civilian noninstitutional population: all persons 16 years of age and older who are not inmates of penal or mental institutions • Labor force participation rate: Labor force divided by civilian noninstitutional population

  5. Population Projections: • Population projections (estimated by Census): - Assumptions on birth rates - Assumptions on death rates - Assumptions on net migration - All assumptions lead tohigh,middle,low scenarios • Get data in the form of ‘resident population’ from Census middle series

  6. Preparing and adjusting population data: • Subtract ages less than 16 years of age • Aggregate to five-year categories of age data • Remove the armed forces population - BLS makes assumptions on the level, age, sex, race and ethnic distribution of armed forces • Remove the institutional population - BLS makes assumptions on institutionalization over the projection period • Adjust for the undercount - Adjusting for changes in CPS weights as a result of a new census.

  7. How do we project the labor force? • Maintain a data base of labor force and population from the CPS on a monthly basis. • Analysis of the trends and past behavior of participation rates. • Extrapolation and smoothing of participation rates to target years. • Labor force projection.

  8. Smoothing and Extrapolation: • Smooth data to ensure changes are monotone and gradual. • We use nonlinear smoother based on medians and moving averages. • We use a smoothing technique developed by Hamming, a so called ‘5-3-H filter’.

  9. Smoothing and Extrapolation: • 5-3-H: First smoothes using a median of length 5, then a running median of length 3 and then a center weighed average of length 3. • Smoothed data transformed into “logits” or natural log of the odds ratio. • Logits of the participation rates are extrapolated linearly by regressing against time. • The fitted series is extended beyond the target year and into the future.

  10. Review: • Projected labor force participation rates are reviewed for consistency . The time-path (both historical and projection), the cross-section in the target year and the cohort patterns of participation are all reviewed and if necessary, modified. • Projected labor force participation rates are applied to the population projections, producing labor force projections for each of the different age, sex, race, and ethnicity categories.

  11. Who uses the Labor Force Projections: • The Macro model within our division • State Population Projection users • Congressional Budget Office • Market researchers • EEO authorities

  12. Some facts about Labor Force: • Factors responsible for Labor Force growth: -Population growth -Labor force participation rate change • Population growth accounts for most of the labor force growth

  13. Old categories from 1990 Census: • Total • -- White • -- Black • -- Asian and other • Total • -- Hispanic origin • -- Other than Hispanic origin • White non-Hispanics

  14. New Categories from 2000 Census: • White (onlyno other race) • Black (onlyno other race) • Asian (onlyno other race) • All other groups: • Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islanders • American Indian & Alaska Natives • All persons reporting more than one Race • Hispanic (of any race) • Non-Hispanic (of any race) • White non-Hispanic

  15. Switch to 2000-based CPS: • Begins with January 2003 data. • Includes new race categories. • Includes use of NAICS and SOC. • Weighted to 2000 census. • Implies large labor force, employment Implies more weight for Hispanics

  16. The labor force will grow more slowly Annual rates of change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  17. Men Women 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Millions Age Millions Population and labor force, 1950 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-59 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Labor force Population Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  18. Men Women 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Millions Age Millions Population and labor force, 2000 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-59 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Labor force Population Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  19. Men Women 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Millions Age Millions Population and labor force, projected 2050 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-59 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Labor force Population Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  20. Percent 86 Men 67 Total 57 Women 34 Labor force participation rates of men and women

  21. White non-Hispanics remain the largest group of workers Percent

  22. Employment Outlook: 2002-12 • Labor force • Economic growth • Industry employment • Occupational employment

  23. Population and labor force continue to grow Millions Population Labor force Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  24. Population growth rates Annual rates of change projected Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  25. The labor force will continue to grow Annual rates of change projected Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  26. Number of live births, 1920-2002 Millions Baby boomers

  27. Men Women 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Millions Age Millions Population, 2012 80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  28. Growth in the labor force ages 55-64 will increase significantly, 2002-12 Projected percent change 65 and over 55 to 64 45 to 54 35 to 44 25 to 34 16 to 24 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  29. 65 and over 55 to 64 45 to 54 35 to 44 25 to 34 16 to 24 The size of the labor force ages 55-64 will increase significantly, 2002-12 Projected numeric change, thousands Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  30. Women’s labor force growth outpaces men’s Percent change projected Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  31. Women’s share of the labor force edges up Percent of labor force Women Men projected projected Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  32. Labor force growth rates of minorities will outpace whites Projected percent change, 2002-12 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  33. Whites will remain the largest group of workers Percent of labor force projected Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  34. Highlights: Labor force The labor force will: • Continue to grow • Grow older • Become more diverse

More Related