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OVERVIEW

THE ABCs OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS, PROLIFERATION PROBLEMS, & THREAT REDUCTION MECHANISMS Amy E. Smithson, PhD Senior Fellow. OVERVIEW. THE BASICs WEAPONS HISTORICAL ROLE CHEMICAL TERRORISM CASE STUDIES PROLIFERATION CONCERNS THREAT REDUCTION MECHANISMS AUSTRALIA GROUP CWC.

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OVERVIEW

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  1. THE ABCs OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS, PROLIFERATION PROBLEMS, & THREAT REDUCTION MECHANISMSAmy E. Smithson, PhDSenior Fellow

  2. OVERVIEW • THE BASICs • WEAPONS • HISTORICAL ROLE • CHEMICAL TERRORISM • CASE STUDIES • PROLIFERATION CONCERNS • THREAT REDUCTION MECHANISMS • AUSTRALIA GROUP • CWC

  3. CHEMICAL WARFARE IN A NUTSHELL • SUSCEPTIBLE TO WIND, TEMPERATURE, PRECIPITATION • MOST WIDELY PROLIFERATED • TACTICAL WEAPON • ROLE IN CONFLICTS: • WWI = SIGNIFICANT • WWII = MARGINAL • IRAN-IRAQ WAR = SPORADIC, BUT IMPORTANT

  4. THE ABCs OFCHEMICAL WEAPONS • TWO APPROACHES: • UNITARY • BINARY • KEY PROPERTIES: • MODE OF ACTION: (e.g., INHALATION) • LETHALITY/TOXICITY • CAVEAT: THEORETICAL v. ACTUAL • STATE: (e.g., AEROSOL, LIQUID) • PERSISTENCE

  5. ABCs OFCHEMICAL WEAPONS • TYPES OF AGENTS: • CHOKING • BLISTER • BLOOD • NERVE • INCAPACITANTS • TWO TYPES OF DELIVERY: • POINT SOURCE • LINE SOURCE

  6. DELIVERY SYSTEMS

  7. CHEMICAL AGENTS

  8. DF Alcohol, promoter STEPS TO ACQUISITION • RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT • PRECURSOR PROCUREMENT • PRODUCTION: • PILOT • LARGE SCALE (BULK AGENT) • TESTING • WEAPONIZATION • STORAGE • INCORPORATION INTO DOCTRINE & EXERCISES

  9. CHEMICALDEFENSE • DETECTION • EARLY = KEY • MODEL HAZARD => AVOID CONTAMINATION • INDIVIDUAL PROTECTION • CUMBERSOME • EFFECTS FIGHTING CAPABILITY • MEDICAL THERAPY: • AUTOINJECTORS • DECONTAMINATION

  10. CWC MEMBERS ALBANIA CHINA IRAN INDIA LIBYA PAKISTAN RUSSIA SOUTH KOREA UNITED STATES CWC HOLDOUTS EGYPT ISRAEL NORTH KOREA SYRIA STATUS AT THE STATE LEVEL CWC = 188 MEMBERS

  11. SYRIA ACTIVE CHEMICAL PROGRAM WITH STOCKS • CHEMICAL PROGRAM DATING TO 1970s RELIANT ON FOREIGN ASSISTANCE • RECEIVED CHEMICAL WEAPONS, PRECURSORS FROM RUSSIA, EGYPT • 1980s: POSSIBLY DEVELOPED DOMESTIC NERVE AGENT CAPACITY • MULTIPLE PRODUCTION SITES • SUSPECTED STOCKPILE OF MUSTARD, SARIN, VX, POSSIBLY WEAPONIZED • DEGRADED SCUD, AERIAL DELIVERY CAPACITY Al-Safir

  12. APPEAL TOTERRORISTS • KNOW-HOW • COOKBOOKS • PATENT LITERATURE • MA LEVEL EDUCATION • SUPPLIES ON THE OPEN MARKET • CHEMICALS • PRODUCTION EQUIPMENT • DISPERSAL SYSTEMS • AS “EASY” AS RADIOLOGICAL DEVICES • MASS CASUALTY OR MASS TERROR • WASHINGTON, DC: 1,000 KG OF SARIN, LINE SOURCE ON CLEAR, CALM NIGHT • 3,000 TO 8,000 DEAD (OTA, 1993) • QUICK IMPACT

  13. AUM SHINRIKYO’S CHEMICAL WEAPONS PROGRAM • 1985-1995: $30 MILLION • 100 INVOLVED • AGENTS SYNTHESIZED • VX ─ SOMAN • TABUN ─ MUSTARD • SARIN ─ HYDROGEN CYANIDE • SARIN PRODUCTION GOALS • 70 TONS IN 40 DAYS • 2 TONS DAILY, 17.6 PINTS/BATCH • 2 SIGNIFICANT ATTACKS

  14. AUM’S INEPTNESS • PROBLEMS AT SATYAN 7 • WORKER EXPOSURES • 3 OFF-PREMISES LEAKS • NOVEMBER 1994 SAMPLES • BACKWARDS SPRAYER • NOVICE MASKS • SUBWAY ATTACK • 30% STRENGTH • DISPERSAL METHOD • NOT THE WESTERN SAFETY MODEL

  15. AL QAEDA & CO. • BIN LADEN’S HOLY DUTY MANDATE • ENCYCLOPEDIA OF JIHAD • PLOTS: ROME, LONDON, AMMAN • AFGHANISTAN • CHEMICAL COOKBOOKS + LABS • CNN DOG TAPE • TAKIFIRI CHLORINE ATTACKS (2007) • OTHER • ATTEMPTS TO ACQUIRE OTHER MATERIALS • CROPDUSTER INQUIRIES

  16. TERRORIST EVENTS WORLDWIDE: 1997-2006 TOTAL EVENTS:23,135 BOMBS: 12,806 ARMED ATTACKS: 5,798 ASSASSINATIONS: 1,689 KIDNAPPINGS: 1,393 ARSON: 786 HOSTAGE 58 HIJACKING 32 OTHER/UNKNOWN: 524 BIOLOGICAL:19 CHEMICAL:27 FOOD/WATER SUPPLY:6 RADIOLOGICAL: 0 Source: RAND/MIPT Terrorism Incident Database

  17. TECHNICAL PLUS-UPS: I • AID VIA FORMER WEAPONEERS • ABOUT 6,500 EXPERTS • OVER 12 FACILITIES • NEXT GENERATION AGENTS: • R&D BEGAN IN 1970s • NOVICHOK #5: • 5-8 TIMES AS EFFECTIVE AS VX • RED ARMY APPROVED • TONS PRODUCED • NOVICHOK #7: • 10 TIMES AS EFFECTIVE AS SOMAN • 10s OF TONS PRODUCED • CONCEPT: BURY IN AGROCHEMICAL INDUSTRY • CZECH AGENTS • APPEALS TO “LONE WOLF” ACTOR(S)

  18. TECHNICAL PLUS-UPS: II • NEW DISCIPLINES, TECHNOLOGY DIFFUSION, SPEED OF ADVANCES • CROSSING OF CHEMICAL & BIOLOGICAL AGENTS • NOVEL NONLETHALS

  19. TECHNICAL PLUS UPS: III MICRO-REACTORS • HIGH SURFACE AREA TO REACTANT RATIO • ENERGY, COST EFFICIENT • MORE PRECISE CONTROL = SAFER • FASTER • GREENER • PROBLEM-SOLVING TECHNOLOGY: • ON DEMAND PRODUCTION • REDUCE DEVELOPMENT TIME • HIGHLY, EXOTHERMIC REACTIONS • MAKE UNSTABLE PRODUCTS • DIFFICULT TO SEPARATE PRODUCTS • NUMBERING UP = MULTI-TON PRODUCTION

  20. POISONOUS SHORT CUTS

  21. INDUSTRIAL + TRANSPORT SECURITY • COMMERCIAL PLANTS • GATES + FENCES + GUARD(S)  NO GUN(S) • EMPLOYEE SCREENING? • SAFETY LABELS; OTHERWISE, VARIABLE • PORTS: ADVANCE NOTIFICATION • RAILWAYS: • TANKERS = SAFETY LABELS • TARGETS: • EASILY SCOUTED • GO TO LOCAL BAR • TACTICS: EXPLOSIVES, REACTANTS (H20)

  22. 4,713 3,973 2,306 1,430 855 586 123 INDUSTRIAL SABOTAGE CONSEQUENCES

  23. THREAT REDUCTION MECHANISMS • 1899 HAGUE CONVENTION • 1925 GENEVA PROTOCOL • AUSTRALIA GROUP • 1997 CHEMICAL WEAPONS CONVENTION • COOPERATIVE THREAT REDUCTION PROGRAM • SOUND DEFENSES • INTELLIGENCE COOPERATION

  24. AUSTRALIA GROUP • ORIGINS: HINDER USE IN 198Os IRAN-IRAQ WAR • HARMONIZATION OF EXPORT CONTROLS: • 63 CHEMICALS • DUAL-USE EQUIPMENT • ACTIVITIES: • END-USER CERTIFICATES • NOTIFICATION OF REFUSALS • NO UNDERCUT POLICY • INTELLIGENCE EXCHANGE • 40 COUNTRIES + EC

  25. CWC PROVISIONS • BANS DEVELOPMENT, PRODUCTION, STOCKPILING & USE • ALLOWS DEFENSE • ALL MEMBERS DESTROY: NONDISCRIMINATORY • DECLARATIONS • INSPECTIONS: • ROUTINE • MILITARY • INDUSTRY • CHALLENGE • AUTOMATIC EXPORT CONTROLS • SCHEDULE II CHEMICALS • RIOT CONTROL AGENTS: • NOT IN WARFARE • YES FOR DOMESTIC RIOT CONTROL

  26. CWC BENCHMARKS • 188 MEMBERS • INSPECTIONS: 4,167 IN OVER 81 STATES • AGENT DESTROYED: 62% • WEAPONS/CONTAINERS DESTROYED: 45% • 70 PRODUCTION FACILITIES: CLOSED • 43 DESTROYED • 21 CONVERTED

  27. CWC DIFFICULTIES • 10-YEAR DESTRUCTION DEADLINE MISSED: • U.S. & RUSSIA WILL NOT MEET 2012 (OR 2021) • DISTRIBUTION OF INSPECTIONS • DECLARATIONS & DOMESTIC IMPLEMENTATION • PROMPT FROM UN RES. 1540

  28. CWC SHORTCOMINGS • U.S. EXEMPTIONS: • NATIONAL SECURITY • LABORATORY ANALYSIS • NO CHALLENGE INSPECTIONS • EXPANSION OF EXPORT CONTROLS TO SCHEDULE III CHEMICALS • RIOT CONTROL LOOPHOLE? • NOT KEEPING UP WITH TECHNICAL ADVANCES: • NOVICHOKS • MICROREACTORS • APPLICABILITY TO SUB-NATIONAL ACTORS • ENFORCEMENT

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