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This summary provides an overview of the HyWays project's aim to evaluate stakeholder scenarios for sustainable hydrogen energy systems. The project will develop a European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap, considering technological, institutional, and socioeconomic factors. The environmental analysis will focus on the effects of hydrogen introduction on the environment, particularly in road transport, using the COPERT model.
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HyWays Use of COPERT model for environmental analysis Antonio Mattucci ENEA
Summary • HyWays Project • Aim of environmental analysis • COPERT description • Approach for environmental analysis • Present status and results • Considerations
HyWays Project HyWays is an integrated project, whose aim is to evaluate selected stake-holder scenarios for future sustainable hydrogen energy systems. This will lead to recommendations for a European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap, reflecting country specific aspects in the participating member states. The Roadmap will consider real life conditions, by taking into account not only technological but also institutional, geographic and socio/ economic barriers and opportunities as representative for the different member states. The Roadmap will describe systematically the future steps to be taken for large-scale introduction of hydrogen as an energy carrier in the transport and power market and as storage medium for renewable energy. It will result in an action plan for the implementation of the hydrogen deployment in Europe, describing at the same time the effects and impacts of this introduction on the EU economy, society and environment. The action plan will propose concrete policy measures, priorities in technology development and train-ing/education.
Aim of environmental analysis The environmental analysis looks at the effects on environment, as consequence of H2 introduction, in terms of both global and local effects. Global effects are already considered by MARKAL model,which is able able to calculate CO2 emissions from energy sectors. Looking at local effects, residential applications can be important and are to be taken into account for all the places where they have significant impact on population, but only for MS where this can be important. Such analysis requires a clear idea of the new energy systems and their territorial localization. Therefore the most important field where the environmental impact can be evaluated in a general way is the road transport. Such analysis will be carried out using COPERTmodel.
COPERT description • COPERT model evaluates the emissions from road transport, considering the following vehicle categories, reflecting the UN-ECE classification: • Passenger Cars M1 • Light Duty Vehicles N1 • Heavy Duty Vehicles N2, N3 • Urban Buses & Coaches M2, M • Two Wheelers L1, L2, L3, L4, L5 • Pollutant emissions are calculated considering the different legislations that have imposed specific vehicle emission limits during the last years. To this end the vehicle population for each of the above category is divided according to the specific applicable legislations (i.e. pre-EURO, EUROx, etc.).
COPERT description (2) Data required by COPERT model Data to be provided as input: 1. Base Fuel Data (overall consumption of the different fuels, in order to check the adequacy of the results, fuel specifications, etc.) 2. Activity Data (fleet composition, number of vehicles , vehicle mileage, …) 3. Usage Data (speeds and shares in the different domains, etc) 4. Miscellaneous (i.e. monthly temperatures, average daily trip distance, evaporation data, average load for freight transport, etc.)
Approach for environmental analysis Input/output – Framework considerations • Many of COPERT inputs are coming from MARKAL results. Among them we can insert the number of vehicles, organized in categories and types, the annual traveled mileage, the share of their use in different domains, the fuel consumption, etc. • This doesn’t mean that MARKAL information can be automatically transferred to COPERT, as: • The assumptions made under the two models are different; therefore a simple association of MARKAL values to similar COPERT structures is normally inadequate, as often there is neither a mutual complete overlapping, nor any easy formal way to modify MARKAL data to fit the COPERT schematisation in all the cases • MARKAL data are typically cumulative values averaged in a decade and their distribution to the many vehicle technologies considered in COPERT for the same category can hardly be schematized in a clear and consistent way for all the vehicles • COPERT, as it is normally used to calculate road transport emission inventory, imposes a consistency check on the overall fuel consumption, comparing the fuel result with total fuel sold in the MS, to qualify the emission calculation, but this requires real data on fuel and fleet composition, instead of PRIMES forecasts.
Approach for environmental analysis(2) Input/output – Framework considerations • COPERT needs other inputs in addition to MARKAL results, in particular the number of vehiclesbelonging to the technologies that are applicable to each specific vehicle category, and this is required for each country. • Therefore a model, able to determine year by year the relative share of the technologies for each vehicle type in the fleet for the time span from 2000 to 2050, has been developed. • To this end a synergy has been activated with TREMOVE DB that provides the information, country by country,onthe original fleet composition in a way consistentwith COPERT, together with thetheoretical information to extendthe vehicle fleet forecast. In fact a forecast model is required, as the data provided by TREMOVE DB cover only a time span up to 2020, while under HyWays the timeframe is to be extended to 2050.
Approach for environmental analysis(3) Input/output – Framework considerations • Using TREMOVE database, for each class of vehicles, through the selection of related data (vehicle type, technology and year), it is possible to build the curves of vehicle survival probability to be used to make the fleet forecast. Such functions are specific for the different categories of vehicles (passenger cars, LDVs, buses, etc.) and are also determined for each Member State on the basis of statistical information. • The survival probability trends are held constant during the forecast period and for all the technologies belonging to the same vehicle category.
Present status and results • The resultsprovided by COPERT runs have been discussed with the other Project partners in the general meeting held in April at Munich. Presently it is under execution a second run of the models. In any case the following additional assumptions/positions are considered for COPERT analysis: • for the reference year (2000) COPERT model has been made consistent with country statistics in road transport consumption of fuels and with MS vehicle fleet statistics; the parameters (share, speed, etc.) are not changed for all the forecasts • two new EURO legislations (V and VI) have been considered in the model (through direct modification of the ACCESS database), with changes on pollutant limits (EURO V) and in fuel consumption for both of them (i.e. as result of Voluntary Agreements between car manufacturers and EC) • for hydrogen, due to lack of information on specific emissions (mainly NOx for ICE vehicles), no pollutant emission has been considered • the new limits on fuel content of SO2 for 2010 have been also introduced • the COPERT vehicle population fits the results provided by MARKAL outputs
Considerations • For all the MS the introduction of hydrogen vehicles provides interesting benefits, at least for the regulated emissions. For the other emissions the analysis has not yet been done. • Due to the larger initial penetration of hydrogen vehicles, the most consistent effects are detected in the urban domains, while in the highways the effects are of lower, as trucks are not converted and this keeps high the pollutant emissions. • Looking at the two H2 scenarios, the effects are quite different at 2050; from the point of view of the emission the “low” scenario can be considered as delayed of 10-15 years respect to the “high” one. Of course, the main driving factor for pollutant emission reduction is the number of vehicles, as H2 is almost emission free.
