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André Freire Assistant Professor of Political Science and Methodology

The 2009 European and Legislative elections in Portugal, and the Portuguese Political System – An Historical and Longitudinal Perspective. André Freire Assistant Professor of Political Science and Methodology ISCTE – IUL (Lisbon University Institute) And

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André Freire Assistant Professor of Political Science and Methodology

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  1. The 2009 European and Legislative elections in Portugal, and the Portuguese Political System – An Historical and Longitudinal Perspective André Freire Assistant Professor of Political Science and Methodology ISCTE – IUL (Lisbon University Institute) And CIES – ISCTE – IUL (Centre for Sociological Studies and Research) Presentation prepared to be presented in the UniversitéLibre de Bruxelles (ULB), October 8, 2009.

  2. Table 4.2: Turnout and blank votes in legislative elections, 1987-2009 (%) • Sources: http://www.eleicoes.cne.pt/cne2005/ (1975-2002); http://www.cne.pt/Eleicoes/dlfiles/resultados_ar2005.pdf (2005), in Almeida, Pedro Tavares, e Freire, André (2005), “Two Overwhelming Victories of the Left: The 2004 European Election and the 2005 Legislative Election in Portugal”, South European Society & Politics, Volume 10 (3), pp. 451-464; http://www.legislativas2009.mj.pt/ (2009). • Notes: • the two constituencies for the Portuguese citizens living abroad are also considered. • Absolute numbers in thousands (000’s).

  3. Table 5.1 – Party vote in Portugal, 1975-1987 • Sources: STAPE, 1995 (1975 a 1991); STAPE, 1997 (1995); STAPE, 1999 (1999), in Freire, André (2001), Mudança Eleitoral em Portugal: Clivagens, Economia e Voto em Eleições Legislativas, 1983-1999, Oeiras, Celta. • Notas: • Only parties with parliamentary representation are disaggregated. • Only parties with parliamentary representation are aggregated in blocs(“left” vs “rigth”). • Outros: só incluem geralmente partidos sem representação parlamentar.

  4. Table 5.2 – Party vote in Portugal, 1991-2009 Sources: Portuguese Ministry of Justice (2002 elections), www.eleicoes.mj.pt/ ; http://www.cne.pt/Eleicoes/dlfiles/resultados_ar2005.pdf (2005 elections), in Almeida, Pedro Tavares, e Freire, André (2005), “Two Overwhelming Victories of the Left: The 2004 European Election and the 2005 Legislative Election in Portugal”, South European Society & Politics, Volume 10 (3), pp. 451-464; http://www.legislativas2009.mj.pt/ (2009) Notes:1) Results include all national electoral districts and also the two constituencies for the Portuguese citizens living abroad;2) All parties individually included won at least 1% of vote and/or one seat; 3) The parties are listed in order of the size of their vote at the 2005 election; 4) Total seats and votes’ percentages may add up to less than 100 due to rounding; 5) The turnout percentages are calculated considering the total of electors in the electoral rolls.

  5. Table 6.1 – Electoral volatility, disporportionality and the effective number of parties – Legislative elections • Source: adapted from Freire, André, and Teperoglou, Eftichia (2007), "European Elections and National Politics: Lessons from the "New" Southern European Democracies", Journal of Elections, Public Opinion & Parties, 17(1), pp. 101-122 (volatility), and Freire, André, Meirinho, M., Moreira, D. (2008), Para uma melhoria da representação política – A reforma do sistema eleitoral, Lisboa, Sextante; updated for the 2009 elections by present author’s calculation and using official results. • Notes: • Total volatility: TV = (PiV + PjV+ PkV+ PlV…+PnV) / 2. (Bartolini and Mair, 1990) • Interbloc volatility: BV = ( P(iV + jV + kV)+ P(lV + mV + nV)  ) / 2. (Bartolini and Mair, 1990) • Disproportionality – Least squares index = √ (∑ (Si – Vi)2/2). (Michael Gallagher, 1991) • ENEP: Effective number of electoral parties = ENEP = 1 / ∑ Vi2. (Laakso e Taagepera, 1979) • (2009 European elections: 4,97) • ENPP: Effective number of electoral parties = ENPP = 1 / ∑ Si2. (Laakso e Taagepera, 1979)

  6. Definitions: TV = (PiV + PjV+ PkV+ PlV…+PnV) / 2. where PiV represents the change – in absolute terms – in the aggregate vote for party in between two consecutive elections (Bartolini and Mair, 1990, p. 20, italicized as in the original). BV = ( P(iV + jV + kV)+ P(lV + mV + nV)  ) / 2. Where P(iV + jV + kV) represents the net change - in absolute terms – in the aggregate vote for parties i, j, and k, all of which come from the same bloc, between two consecutive elections (Bartolini and Mair, 1990, p. 22, italics as in the original). Disproportionality: Least squares index = √ (∑ (Si – Vi)2/2). For each party calculate the difference between seats and votes (percentages), and square them: (Li – Vi)2 Sum the previous result for all the parties and divide the sum by 2: (∑ (Si – Vi)2/2). Calculate the square root of the previous result/sum: √ (∑ (Si – Vi)2/2). Effective number of parties: ENEP: Effective number of electoral parties = ENEP = 1 / ∑ Vi2. Calculate the proportion of votes for each party squared: Vi2. Sum up the previous result for all the parties competing in the election: ∑ Vi2. Divide 1 by the previous result: 1 / ∑ Vi2. ENPP: same calculations but using the proportion of seats.

  7. Figure 3 – Effective Number of (Electoral and Parliamentary) Parties in Portuguese Legislative Elections, 1975-2009

  8. Figure 4 – Electoral and Party System, Portugal, 1975-2009

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