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Brian McInerney Hydrologist National Weather Service Hydrologic Outlook April 2006

Brian McInerney Hydrologist National Weather Service Hydrologic Outlook April 2006. Hydrologic Outlook. Temperature. March Salt Lake City Temperature Departure from Normal. March 1983. March 2006. 0.1 degrees cooler than average. 1.0 degrees warmer than average.

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Brian McInerney Hydrologist National Weather Service Hydrologic Outlook April 2006

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  1. Brian McInerneyHydrologistNational Weather ServiceHydrologic OutlookApril 2006

  2. Hydrologic Outlook • Temperature

  3. March Salt Lake City Temperature Departure from Normal March 1983 March 2006 0.1 degrees cooler than average 1.0 degrees warmer than average

  4. April Salt Lake City Temperature Departure from Normal April 1983 April 2006 3.3 degrees cooler than average 3.3 degrees warmer than average

  5. May Salt Lake City Temperature Departure from Normal May 1983 May 2006 ? 6.7 degrees warmer than average 7.25 degrees cooler than average

  6. Hydrologic Outlook • Precipitation

  7. Precipitation

  8. Utah and neighboring statesSeasonal Precipitation2006 Water Year

  9. Hydrologic Outlook • Snowpack

  10. Hydrologic Outlook

  11. City Creek Snow

  12. Parleys Creek Snow

  13. Big Cottonwood Creek Snow

  14. Little Cottonwood Creek Snow

  15. Hydrologic Outlook • Water Supply

  16. Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volumes April 1st 2006 April Through July Volume Forecast Percent of 30 Year Average Flows Utah Area River Basins Much Above Normal Above Normal Normal Below Normal Much Below Normal

  17. Forecasted Utah Spring Snowmelt Runoff Volume City Creek 178% Emigration Ck. Dell Fk. 122% 126% Parleys Creek April 1st, 2006 April Through July Volume Forecast Percent of 30 Year Average Flows Six Creeks River Basin 150% Mill Creek 129% Jordan River Big Cottonwood Creek 129% Little Cottonwood Creek 138%

  18. Hydrologic Outlook • Flood Potential

  19. Increased Flood Potential Cache Valley City Creek Emigration Creek Jordan River

  20. Hydrologic Outlook • City Creek Peak Flow Forecast is a result of this year’s snowpack coupled with a past year’s climate • What if we took today’s snowpack and added on 1983’s climate? • The NWS Peak flow model would give us the following flow

  21. Hydrologic Outlook2006 City Canyon Snow vs. City Creek climate of 1983Current Flood Flow at 210 cfs

  22. Hydrologic Outlook2006 City Canyon Snow vs. City Creek climate of 1984Current Flood Flow at 210 cfs

  23. Hydrologic Outlook2006 City Canyon Snow vs. City Creek climate of 1986Current Flood Flow at 210 cfs

  24. Hydrologic Outlook2006 City Canyon Snow vs. City Creek climate of 1995Current Flood Flow at 210 cfs

  25. Hydrologic Outlook2006 City Canyon Snow vs. City Creek climate of 1997Current Flood Flow at 210 cfs

  26. Hydrologic Outlook • Peak Flow Forecast

  27. Hydrologic Outlook

  28. Hydrologic Outlook • Short Term Forecast

  29. Hydrologic OutlookShort Term Forecast • Temperature through April 27th, 2006 • Gradually increasing temps through Sunday with a chance of rainfall • Cooling through Monday • Precipitation through April 20th, 2006 • Near normal throughout mid-month Click for current weather forecast

  30. Hydrologic Outlook • Long Range Forecast

  31. Recent Evolution of Equatorial Pacific SST Departures

  32. Forecasted Evolution of Equatorial Pacific SST Departures

  33. Spring Climate • Spring climate will dictate runoff scenario • Soil moisture is near saturation in the north • This allows a great runoff efficiency • Cool wet spring will enhance runoff efficiency and heighten flood potential • Length of melt window is shortened • More water into streams and reservoirs • Analogy of a wet sponge • Warmer drier spring will reduce water volume and lessen flood potential • Lengthen window of melt • Earlier melt, means more evaporation, infiltration and sublimation • Less efficient melt process • We are running out of time for this scenario

  34. Forecast UpdatesContact the National Weather Service Forecast Center (Weather Info) • Forecast Services • Flood Forecasts, Advisories, Watches, and Warnings • Weather Forecasts • Radar, satellite, weather station data • Observed conditions • Climate data • Contact • Larry Dunn • Meteorologist in Charge • 801-524-4377 • Brian McInerney • Hydrologist • 801-971-2033 http://www.weather.gov/

  35. Forecast UpdatesContact the CBRFC (Colorado Basin River Forecast Center) • Forecast Services • Up to the minute forecast updates • Hourly, daily, and monthly time scales • Reservoir inflow • Peak flow forecasts • Contact • Michelle Schmidt • Hydrologist in Charge • 801-524-5130 • Steve Shumate • Development and Operational Hydrologist • 801-524-5130 www.cbrfc.noaa.gov

  36. Contact Information Additional Information Contact Brian McInerney Hydrologist National Weather Service 801-971-2033 c brian.mcinerney@noaa.gov

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