key findings climate change presented by edward n.
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  1. Key findings – Climate ChangePresented by Edward S Ayensuon 4th – 5th September, 2009@ the UNESCO International Conference on Broadcast Media & Climate Change: A Public Service RemitParis, France

  2. Key messages • The impacts of climate change are already being felt, and limiting warming by 2 degrees is a minimum • Limiting warming by 2 degrees will require 17Gt of abatement by 2020 • This will require action from developed and developing countries • Substantial funding to the developing world (€65-100bn pa) is required over the next ten years • “Low carbon growth plans” are required to enable both the private and public funding flows to developing countries 1

  3. About Project Catalyst • Initiative of the ClimateWorks Foundation, a global, non-profit philanthropic foundation headquartered in San Francisco, California with a network of affiliated foundations in China, India, the U.S., and the European Union • Launched in May 2008 to provide analytical and policy support for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiations on a post-Kyoto international climate agreement • Provide a forum where key participants in the global discussions can informally interact, conduct analyses, jointly problem solve, and contribute ideas and proposals to the formal UNFCCC process • Organized in working groups: mitigation, adaptation, technology, forestry, climate-compatible growth plans, and finance with a total of about 150 climate negotiators, senior government officials, representatives of multilateral institutions, business executives, and leading experts from over 30 countries. Analytical support from the international consulting firm, McKinsey & Company

  4. 4 • World • Dev’d world • Africa • Costal flooding • Droughts • Water Scarcity • Climate zone shifts Climate change is likely to disproportionately affect the countries least responsible • Per capita GHG emission comparison1 • MtCO2e per capital • Current development issues may be worsened by climate change • North Africa • Increased desertification • East Africa • Expansion of vector-borne disease transmission zone • West and Central Africa • Fast-urbanising cities at risk from coastal flooding • 7.5 • 2005 • 16.0 • 3.3 • 8.4 • 2030 • 17.8 • Southern Africa • Heightened water stress • 2.9 1 Including emissions from land-use and forestry SOURCE: UNFCCC; UN ESA; IEA;

  5. The response to climate change must be rooted in development, but aligned with mitigation and adaptation objectives Development ‘Low-carbon development’ ‘Climate-resilient development’ ‘Climate-compatible development’ Adaptation ‘Climate-proofed abatement’ Mitigation

  6. Peak at 550 ppm, long-term stabilization 550 ppm • Peak at 510 ppm, long-term stabilization 450 ppm Probability of temperature increase under 2˚C • Peak at 480 ppm, long-term stabilization 400 ppm • 70 Expected temperature increase • 60 • 50 • 40 • 15-30% • 3.0˚C • 30 • 20 • 40-60% • 2.0˚C • 10 • 70-85% • 1.8˚C • 0 • 2005 • 10 • 15 • 20 • 25 • 30 • 35 • 40 • 45 • 2050 Scientific evidence suggests that a 450ppm CO2e pathway with over-shoot gives a 40–60% probability to limit global warming to 2 degrees Global GHG emissions and pathways for GHG stability GtCO2e per year • 450ppm is not safe – it has a 40–60% pro-bability of warming exceeding 2oC • Even 2oC will require signifi-cant investment in adaptation Source: IPCC WG3 AR4,, den Elzen, van Vuuren; Meinshausen; Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve v2.0, Catalyst analysis

  7. 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 17 Gt of reductions below “Business as Usual” in 2020 are required for a 450ppm, 2°pathway Global GHG emissions, Gt CO2e per year Reference pathway ‘Business as Usual’ 75 70 70 65 61 -35 Current proposals* 8-11 Gt abatement in 2020 60 -17 55 52 50 45 44 40 35 450ppm pathway(with overshoot) 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Change relative to 1990 Percent 17 -7 * US – 17-28% below 2005 level by 2020; EU – 20-30% from 1990 level by 2020 (2.3 Gt); China - Reduce energy consumption per national income by 20% between 2005–10 (0.8Gt), and again between 2010-2015; Russia - stabilise emissions at ~30% below 1990 (0.7 Gt); Brazil - Reduce deforestation rates by 70% by 2017, equivalent to 4.8b tons less CO2 emitted cumulatively (0.7 Gt); Japan - Reduce 80% by 2050 from current levels (0.7 Gt); Canada - 20% reduction from 2006 level by 2020 (0.3 Gt); Mexico - Reduce emissions from 2002 levels by 50% by 2050 (0.3Gt), plus proposals from 12 smaller Annex 1 countries and South Korea. Assumptions have been made on timeline and pathway to calculate abatement in 2020 Source: McKinsey Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve v2.0; Houghton; IEA; US EPA; den Elzen, van Vuuren; Project Catalyst analysis 6

  8. Breakdown by abatement type: • 9 Gt for terrestrial carbon • 6 Gt for energy efficiency • 4 Gt for low carbon energy supply • Breakdown by geographic location: • 5 Gt in developed country geographies • 14 Gt in developing country geographies Sufficient opportunities exist to achieve the 17 Gt required to reach a 450ppm pathway McKinsey global GHG abatement cost curve, 2020* (up to costs of €60/t, excluding transaction costs, 4% discount rate) • 70 • 60 Solar PV • 50 Reduced intensive agriculture conversion Solar conc. • 40 Organic soil restoration Wind (high penetration) Pastureland afforestation Biomass • 30 Grassland management Wind (low penetration) Reduced deforestation from pastureland conversion • 20 Nuclear Reduced deforestation from slash-and-burn agriculture conversion • 10 • 0 10 15 20 19 Gt Rice management • -10 Shift coal new build to gas Abatement potential Gt CO2e • -20 Electricity from landfill gas New waste recycling • -30 • -40 Cars ICE improvement • -50 • -60 Cars aerodynamics improvement Retrofit building envelope (commercial) • -70 • -80 Lighting – switch incandescents to LED (residential) • -90 • -100 Source: McKinsey Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve v2.0

  9. Resulting responsibilities for developed countries Caps Support on mitigation/ adaptation Leadership on technology

  10. The costs of adaptation are uncertain but are likely to be in the tens of billions per year 27 Upper bound Lower bound Adaptation cost estimates, € bn pa, (2008 prices) UNDP (2007) 70 89 Oxfam (2007) 41 0 41 UNFCCC Global estimate (2007) 36 99 135 World Bank (2006) 8 34 Source: Agrawala & Fankhauser (2008); Project Catalyst

  11. Developing countries require different types of support for mitigation activities 60 40 20 0 * 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 -20 -40 Developing country abatement cost curve, 2020 (up to costs of €60/t) Cost of abatement € / ton Abatement potential Gt CO2e Best practice info, capacity building, loans Offset market or grants Grants and international cooperation

  12. Including elements of adaptation, the total financing need would be €65-100 bn per year 2010-2020 35 Annual financing flows requirement for developing countries €b on average p.a. 2010–20 ~65–100 ~10–20 55–80 5 5–30 10 Incremental costs Higher financing costs Transaction costs Technology deployment Total financing for abatement Adaptation estimate Total financing for developing countries Source: McKinsey Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve v2.0; ‘Bosetti; Carraro; Massetti; Tavoni’; UNFCCC; Project Catalyst analysis

  13. Under a 25% target for developed countries, carbon markets could contribute significantly to developing country low carbon investment Required abatement in 2020, Gt 4 Incremental costs paid for by developed countries Required abatement for developed country target of 25% Potential abatement in developing countries Support for incremental costs needed, e.g., concessional loans, grants, payments 17 5 Support needed for capacity building and loans for capital investment where required 3 6 Carbon credit purchases to meet 25% target 3 Remaining abatement feasible in developing countries (NPV negative) – may be financed by developed countries Required abatement for 450ppm pathway Abatement feasible within developed countries <60 €/t CO2e Remaining abatement feasible in developing countries (NPV positive) – may be supported by developed countries Abatement feasible in developing countries – may be financed by developed to meet target commitments (e.g., via CDM) Source: McKinsey Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve v2.0, team analysis

  14. Climate Compatible Growth Plans (CCGPs) are a way to identify and support developing country mitigation and adaptation actions Focus: Development, mitigation + adaptation Differentiation: Both developing + developed CCGP (=climate compatible growth plans) Time horizon: Long term and short/medium term Process: Support, best practices, review, MRV Content: Priorities, policies/measures and international support

  15. The elements of an LCGP National circumstances and current development plans Assessment of vulnerability to climate change and how future climate change will affect it Most recent GHG inventory Long-term vision for an economy with low GHG emissions and low vulnerability to climate change Plan for specific investments in making the economy and the infrastructure less vulnerable and measures to adapt existing infrastructure to the changing climate GHG mitigation plan containing: Projection of GHG emissions under BAU scenario for the most important economic sectors Scenario the country can achieve without assistance Scenario for which it would require international support. NAMAs and NAPA’s the country wishes to undertake Incremental cost of the individual NAMAs and NAPAs and all technology, financing and capacity building support needed to implement the plan. Topics covered by a LCGP 1 Strategic plan to assist the country in shifting its development path to a low carbon and climate resilient economy and achieve sustainable development 2 Based on the socio-economic and development priorities of the country 3 Includes a strategic vision (long-term component) as well as that specific actions to be undertaken to get on a low carbon, climate resilient pathway (short and medium term component)

  16. Opportunities for leap-frogging exist which provide multiple advantages to support African development • Solar technology provides advantages for Africa • A Global Deal could . . . • Low levels of electrification in Sub-Saharan Africa • Off-grid solar technology is commercially available: • Cost-effective in remote areas • Faster deployment in remote areas • More reliable • Environmental and security benefit • Provide funding • Widen access to loans • Provide technology access • Support research • Overcome IP barriers • Develop institutions and processes