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Fundaments of demography

Fundaments of demography. Demography – introduction. Demos + grafein Study of reproduction of population Population inhabitants in the specific area group of inhabitants with the same biological, cultural and social characteristics. The history of demography.

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Fundaments of demography

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  1. Fundaments of demography

  2. Demography – introduction • Demos + grafein • Study of reproduction of population • Population • inhabitants in the specific area • group of inhabitants with the same biological, cultural and social characteristics

  3. The history of demography • 1662: John Graunt: The natural and political observations, death time table • based on death time tables → modelling of the death of the London inhabitants • 17th and 18th century – many theories, example: • A. Smith: Labour requirement influents and determines state of population, • Thomas Robert Malthus: population has an exponential growth, means of life support have linear growth

  4. The history of demography • International statistical congres 1853 in Brussels (initiator L. Quetelet) • the main topic of the congres: • The first demographic congres 1927, Geneve, formation of International Union for the Scientific Study of Population

  5. Infancy of demography in czech countries • 1897 Institute of antropology and demography – Charles university • 1918 State statistical office, department of population statistics • 1920 Charles University, Faculty of Science

  6. Demographic information sources • Yearbooks • Demographic yearbook, UN, since 1948 (http://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic/) • demographic info about chosen countries of the world (not detailed) • EUROSTAT (http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat) • detailed demographic info about EU countries • Czech statistical office (ČSÚ, http://www.czso.cz) • very detailed info about czech inhabitants

  7. Demographic information sources • Journals • Population Index (USA, quarterly, since 1935) • Population & Societé (France, monthly, since 1946) • Demography (USA, quarterly, since 1964) • Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft (GER, 4 publications per year, since 1975) • Demografie (CZE, quarterly, since 1958)

  8. Demographic data • Two types of data

  9. Population state • Based on census of inhabitants or population census • Census of inhabitants (collected only basic data – age, sex, occupation, etc.) • Population census (big action, many personal characteristics, is done more precisely)

  10. Population state indicators • Size of population (2 types): • Size of population • Mid-year state of population

  11. Population state indicators • Average computation • linear growth of inhabitants • geometric growth of inhabitants • continuous growth of inhabitants

  12. Population state indicators • Density of population

  13. Population state indicators • Population structure by sex • share of men • share of women • index of masculinity • index of feminity

  14. Population state indicators • Structure of population by age • biological generation I. 0 – 14 years II. 15 – 49 years III. 50 years and over • dependency ratio – according BG

  15. Population state indicators • economic generation • I. 0 – 19 years (pre-productivity) • II. 15 – 49 years (productivity) • III. 50 and over (post-productivity) • index of economic load • weigthed index of economic load

  16. Population state indicators • young dependency rate (green dependency) • old dependency rate (grey dependency)

  17. Population state indicators • Age pyramid • progressive (I. BG > III. BG) • stationary (I. BG ~ III. BG) • regressive (I. BG < III. BG)

  18. Population state indicators • Age pyramid

  19. Population state indicators – age pyramid

  20. Population state indicators • Age of population • life expectancy – average duration of life of the current newborn • normal life expectancy – the most frequently age of death (mode of live duration) • probability life expectancy – age, in which could live at least a half of population (median)

  21. Population movement indicators • are directly related to reproduction of population • Indicators: birth, death, marrage, divorce and moving • register of natural change • register of migration

  22. Demographic indicators Study of reproduction of population • process of dying-cul • process of reproduction • process of migration

  23. Demographic indicators • Basic indicators • mortality – death ability • fertility – ability of reproduction • marriage – ability of making couples, which make possible a reproduction • divorce – ability to cancel out of made couples • migration – ability to move

  24. Demographic indicators • Mortality • death rate exposition – estimate of average of population – mid-year state of population Mid-year state of population is estimated • arithmetical average of first and last value in the time period • size of population in the centre of the interval

  25. Demographic indicators • Specific indicators of mortality (by age, by sex etc.) suckling mortality – mortality up to 1 year of the suckling´s life • suckling mortality quotient newborn mortality – mortality up to 28 days after childbirth • newborn mortality quotient

  26. Demographic indicators • letality rate • specific rate of letality – by age

  27. Demographic indicators • Natality • natality rate • fertility rate • contingent – number of women in the fertility age (15 – 49 years)

  28. Demographic indicators • specific rate of fertility – includes age of the women • total fertility rate – average number of children, which are born to 1 woman, fertility is not changing, mortality up to 50 years is zero • net rate of reproduction – number of girls, which are born to 1 women, fertility is not changing a mortality up to 50 years is also not changing • crude rate of reproduction – number of girls, which are born to 1 women, fertility is not changing a mortality up to 50 years is zero

  29. Demographic indicators • Newborn classification • sex – index of masculinity and feminity • vitality • legitimate • maturity – readiness to live in the real world • full-term baby • not full-term baby

  30. Demographic indicators • Abortion • crude rate of abortion • specific rate of abortion – includes age of the women • total rate of abortion – average number of abortions per life of the women, fertility and abortion rate is not changing and death rate up to 50 years is zero

  31. Demographic indicators • Marriage a divorce • crude marriage rate • crude marriage rate – men • crude marriage rate – women

  32. Demographic indicators • specific marriage rate • specific first marriage rate • first marriage average age

  33. Demographic indicators • crude divorce rate • specific divorce rate • specific divorce rates

  34. Demographic indicators • Migration • number of moved in (I) and moved out (E) • migration balance • total migration • immigration intensity • emigration intensity

  35. Demographic indicators • relative migration balance • total migration rate • migration balance rate

  36. Demographic indicators • Population increase • natural population increase • K = N – M • natural increase rate • total population increase • T = N – M + S

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