US-China Cooperation: Opportunities for Air Quality & Climate

1. US-China Cooperation:Opportunities for Air Quality & Climate China Environment Forum Panel March 17, 2010

2. Overview • US China cooperation on clean air & energy • Opportunities for improving public health while achieving climate cobenefits 2

3. China Air Quality • Home to 7 of the 10 most air-polluted cities in the world • Heavily dependent on coal for power and household energy • ~80% of rural households burn biomass fuel and coal for home cooking and heating • China is 3rd largest energy producer (after US and Russia) and 2nd largest consumer • Must double electric-generating capacity every decade to maintain economic growth rate • WHO estimates ~700,000 premature deaths/yr from air pollution • 300,000 from ambient air pollution • 400,000 from indoor air pollution • Respiratory & heart diseases related to air pollution are China’s leading causes of death • $136 billion (~7% of GDP) to clean up pollution in 2004 • Demand for private vehicles is rising exponentially with rising incomes - Beijing adds 4-5,000 vehicles/month to its roads

4. US-China Clean Air & Energy Strategy • Goal:Reduce pollution & energy intensity of China’s growing economy • Improve China’s air quality and public health • Reduce emissions which have potential to affect US • Assist in developing sustainable industry and transportation • Support hemispheric air pollution transport characterization • Priority Areas: • Regional air quality management • Transportation sector • Power sector • Also: • US-China Strategic Economic Dialogue • Global Partnerships (Methane to Markets, WSSD Clean Fuels & Vehicles, Clean Indoor Air)

5. EPA-China Clean Air & Energy Activities • Regional Air Quality Management • modeling, inventories, control strategies, policy development • Sulfur Dioxide Emission Trading Program for the Chinese Power Sector • Clean Fuels & Vehicles - Multi-Project Partnership • AIRNow International - Shanghai Pilot Project • Integrated air quality – climate strategies • GHG Inventory Project • Energy efficient buildings & labeling programs

6. U.S.-China “Strategy on Clean Air and Energy” Cooperation China AQ Modeling & Emissions Assessment Projects Beijing & Shanghai modeling & EI efforts are underway Phase 2 4-km PRD modeling & EI Initiated in 2006 Phase 3 12-km Phase 1 China national/regional pilot modeling demo project 2003-2004 36-km

7. Beijing plus transported emissions Beijing emissions only Transported emissions only Beijing Particulate Matter Modeling Results RAQM Conference

8. AIRNow上海 - International Pilot Project What AIRNow does • Coordination • Centralization • AQI conversion • Education • Distribution Air Quality Data 45 62 215 55 125 485 Air Quality Forecasts

9. An integrated set of projects representing a holistic approach to achieving fuel and vehicle emissions reductions including: Beijing diesel retrofit Advanced vehicle technologies Fuel efficiency Capacity building On Board Diagnostics In-use vehicle compliance Fuel quality (sulfur) Non-road regulations Sustainable transportation New clean vehicles Voluntary programs Training, training trainers Clean Fuels and Vehicles

10. What if…China adopted Euro V Vehicle and Fuel Standards? Net benefits in 2030 (billion U.S. dollars) Avoided Health Impacts 2008-2030 Benefits: costs = 20:1 Source: Costs and Benefits of Reduced Sulfur Fuels in China (International Council on Clean Transportation, 2006) http://www.theicct.org/documents/Reduced_Sulfur_China_ES_Chinese_ICCT_2006.pdf

11. Air Pollution and Climate: Shared sources offer potential for integrated solutions

12. Integrating Clean Air and Climate • A changing climate affects air quality • Air quality impacts climate • Integrating climate and air quality programs

13. Air quality impacts climate Regional warming impacts may be significant In the Himalayan region, solar heating from BLACK CARBON at high elevations may be just as important as carbon dioxide in the melting of snowpacks and glaciers(Ramanathan & Carmichael, 2008)

14. Global BC Emissions, By Region Total Global Black Carbon Emissions = 8.8 Million Tons Adapted from: Streets, D. G., et al. (2004), J. of Geophysical Letters.

15. East Asia BC Emissions by Sector Total ~ 1.8 Million Tons Adapted from: Streets, D. G., et al. (2004), J. of Geophysical Letters.

16. Integrating Climate & Air Quality Programs Challenges for Black Carbon: • Location of reductions matters because these pollutants are more local/regional in nature • Black carbon’s warming effect is offset some by cooling from reflective pollutants emitted at the same source, especially organic carbon • Additional research needed on emission inventories and assessing net climate impacts of reductions from particularsource categories

17. Upcoming Opportunities • Revised Air Pollution Control Law • 12th Five-Year Plan • Total Emission Control targets (SO2, NOX) • Revised renewable energy law (2009) • Potential air quality standards for PM2.5 and ozone • 50 ppm S fuel now available in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou

18. Integrating Clean Air and Climate Melting glaciers in Himalayas worrisome www.chinaview.cn2010-02-10 China tackling global warming impact on Qinghai-Tibet Plateau • Public health impacts continue to be significant and drive control programs • But climate cobenefits can accompany reductions • There is an optimal investment path unique for China • Integrated modeling canreveal the optimal path • Need to develop analytical toolsto highlight choices

19. THANK YOU! 谢谢 !