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2012 Elections In Maryland

2012 Elections In Maryland. Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel Community College www2.aacc.edu/csli. National Results. National Results. How did the pollsters do? Gallup Tracking Poll – Sept. – Nov. 4.

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2012 Elections In Maryland

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  1. 2012 Elections In Maryland Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel Community College www2.aacc.edu/csli

  2. National Results

  3. National Results

  4. How did the pollsters do?Gallup Tracking Poll – Sept. – Nov. 4 Registered voters – add 3+/- to Romney for likely voters Oct 11 Oct 3

  5. Washington Post/ABC Daily Tracking Poll (Likely voters)

  6. Map of Battleground States NH Wis Iowa Ohio Nev. Va. Colo. NC Fl.

  7. Battleground Vote Estimates 11-1

  8. Dem Margins: EC vs. PV (1952-2012)

  9. Popular Vote: 1952-2012

  10. Electoral College Percentages: 1952-2012

  11. Exit Poll: Demographics http://reporting.sunlightfoundation.com/2012/return_on_investment/

  12. Exit Poll: Issues

  13. National Demographic Lessons • Solid Democratic voters: Liberals, African-Americans, Latinos, seculars, single, under 30 • Lean Democratic: moderates, 30-44, women, • Uncertain: Suburban, Catholics • Lean Republican: unaffiliated/indep., white, Protestants, married, males, 45-64, 65+ • Solid Republican: Conservatives, rural

  14. Dems: 55 (with 2 independents) Reps: 45 Senate:

  15. National Results: Election findings • Presidential races lean Democratic but without clear hegemony • Senate races lean Democratic, but depends on local candidates • House – resists Democratic trend due to Republican gerrymandering (based on 2010 state legislative election results) • Shifting coalitions – “new emerging Democratic majority” underlies trend • Elections close enough – perfect ground game needed to win

  16. Maryland: Presidential Results

  17. Presidential Vote by County, % Supporting

  18. Presidential Vote by County, 2012

  19. Dream Act by County, % Supporting

  20. Redistricting by County, % Supporting

  21. Same Sex Marriage, % Supporting

  22. All Votes by County, % Supporting (ranked by “overall”)

  23. Lessons for State Elections • Democratic hegemony remains unchanging • Solid Democratic jurisdictions – Montgomery, PG, Charles, Baltimore City • Lean Democratic - Howard, Baltimore County • Battleground Counties: Anne Arundel, Kent, Somerset, Wicomico, Dorchester

  24. Anne Arundel County:Presidential Vote: 2008 vs. 2012 Libertarian: ‘08 = .5 ‘12 = 1.4 Green: ’08 = .7 ‘12 = .7 Total: 1.2/2.1

  25. Anne Arundel County:Presidential Vote: 2008 vs. 2012

  26. AA County: Early Vote - 2012

  27. AA County Lessons • County has purple qualities – support some Democratic initiatives (SSM, redistricting) but less so others (Dream, Casinos) • Maximum turnout election still results in Democratic electoral minority for top of ticket • Local Democratic candidates still need to be cautious about distancing themselves from national and statewide candidates • Council districts seem evenly split: Dem: 1, 4, 6; Rep: 3,5, 7. Battleground district is 2

  28. AAC: Obama Vote by Demographics

  29. Dream Act by Demographic Variables

  30. Same Sex Marriage by Demographics

  31. Dream Act by Demographic Variables

  32. AAC: Demographic Lessons • Solid Democratic voters: Liberals, Blacks (except SSM), Jews, $0-50k, seculars, single, under 30 • Lean Democratic: moderates, 31-40, women, $150-250k • Uncertain: some college, BA, PostGrad work, 61-70 • Lean Republican: unaffiliated, HS Diploma, $50-150k, >$250k, white, Protestants, Catholic, married, males, 41-60, 71+ • Solid Republican: Conservatives, 2 year degree, Other Christians, White Evangelicals

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