The Future of Space Weather Services

1. The Future of Space Weather Services Terry Onsager Director – International Space Environment Service Physicist – U.S. National Weather Service, Space Weather Prediction Center Terry.Onsager@noaa.gov

2. Main Topics • International Service Coordination • Coordinated Observations • Numerical Modeling • International Organizations

3. Challenges Ahead • The improvement of space weather services requires coordinated, committed partners around the globe • Many space-based observations are obtained from research missions with limited lifetimes – continuity of data is a concern • Many ground-based observations are not available in real time nor on shared networks • Traditional basic research does not effectively lead to the development of applications to support specific user needs • Global and regional services must be coordinated

4. Overarching Goal: Strengthen Resilience Through Improved Services Four elements needed to improve space weather capabilities: 1. User Needs: Understand the risks and the actions that need to be taken 2. Targeted Services: Develop useable capabilities from basic science knowledge 3. Observing Infrastructure: Distributed space-based and ground-based 4. Global Coordination: Consistent, accurate message

5. Growth in Subscribers to U.S. Space Weather Products Customers Include: All major airlines Drilling and oil exploration Satellite companies Transportation sector Emergency responders Sunspot Number Number of Subscribers ~25% of customers are International Subscription service began

6. Space Weather has Global-Scale Causes and Local Impacts Sweden: - Power outage - Transformer heating in nuclear plant United States: - Power reduced to mitigate impact on generation facilities South Africa: - 14 transformers damaged - $60 million impact - Basic commerce and security impaired

7. International Space Environment Service Coordinating space weather services since 1962 • Endorsed by national governments as space weather service providers • Provide local users with targeted services • Promote exchange of data and information • Regions of responsibility are not clearly defined • Products are not well coordinated for large events 15 Regional Warning Centers 4 Associate Warning Centers 1 Collaborative Expert Center www.spaceweather.org

8. Aviation Meteorology Global/Regional Functions Global Wide Area Forecast Centers (WAFC) WAFC (London) WAFC (Washington) Backup Regional … VAAC VAAC VAAC Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAAC) Local Meteorological Watch Organizations (MWO) … … MWO MWO MWO MWO Airport Airport Airport Airport WAFC WAFC

9. Space Weather - Global Functions Global-scale phenomena can be addressed by a limited number of centers Solar Flares – Forecasts, Warnings, and Alerts Solar Protons – Forecasts, Warnings, and Alerts Geomagnetic – Forecasts and Warnings Storms

10. Space Weather - Regional Functions Regional-scale phenomena must be addressed by a distributed network Ionospheric– Total Electron Content Disturbances Ionospheric– Scintillation Disturbances Geomagnetic – Alerts and Local Impacts Storms

11. Global/Regional Roles for Space Weather Observations • Space-based observations of space weather drivers (solar active regions, CMEs, solar wind at L1) can be obtained by a few countries and shared - Encourage international organizations (WMO, CGMS, UNCOPOUS) to advocate for a plan among countries with satellite capabilities • Ground-based measurements of local disturbances require commitment from each individual country - Foster the establishment of operational space weather programs within countries to ensure local support for data infrastructure - Leverage infrastructure that already exists for weather and climate

12. Data Challenges • Research satellites have limited duration, usually without planned follow-on missions • International coordination of space weather missions occurs infrequently • Data availability may be limited or have long delays • Interoperability is often limited • Data value for product accuracy is rarely quantified • Many available data sources are not effectively used today

13. Ground-Based Data Will be Accessible Space-Based Data Will be Coordinated Networks of Ground-Based Data UN International Space Weather Initiative Distributed Space-Based Assets International Living With a Star ~600 Instruments More than 95 Countries More than 25 Space Agencies

14. Difficulty in Conducting Gap Analysis for Space Weather Observations Contribution of space weather data to forecast accuracy is not well quantified. Future effort must be directed at determining data value. Numerical Weather Prediction Example Courtesy: Carla Cardinali and Sean Healy, ECMWF Forecast error contribution (%)

15. Components of Sun-Earth Numerical Space Weather Modeling Effort • Magnetosphere/ • Ionosphere • Atmosphere/ • Ionosphere • Solar /Solar Wind • L1 Satellite Location – ACE and Future DSCOVR

16. World Meteorological Organization Specialized Agency of the United Nations with 191 Members WMO Inter-Programme Coordination Team on Space Weather (ICTSW) • Combine meteorology and space weather communities • Integrate space weather in global observing system 22 Member Countries 7 International Organizations Russian Federation Norway Finland • Foster development of new service organizations • New members are encouraged to participate United Kingdom Sweden Canada Germany China Poland Belgium Switzerland France United States Italy Japan Korea Pakistan Ethiopia Thailand Brazil Australia South Africa

17. Additional Organizations Involved in Space Weather Services Coordination Group for Meteorological Satellites: - Maintain awareness of operational service needs - Coordinate observing capabilities and foster interoperability - Report on spacecraft anomalies and resolution studies - Support dual use of GNSS for meteorology and space weather International Civil Aviation Organization: - Defining civil aviation requirements for space weather services - Coordinate with WMO to recommend global configuration of service providers

18. United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) COPUOS Scientific and Technology Sub-Committee (STSC): • Space Weather is a new agenda item for STSC (2013) • Space weather guidelines and recommended practices for space actors will soon be released (2014) • COPUOS actions cover the full range of issues – basic research, applications, capacity building – with high-level government and space agency participation COPUOS is likely the best organization to serve as a focal point for international space weather activities and gaps

19. Summary of Future Services • Global centers (2?) will give forecasts of large-scale phenomena • Regional centers (many) will provide local alerts and local measurements • Data assimilation will be fully incorporated into Sun-Earth models • Data value will be quantified and prioritized based on forecast accuracy • International coordination will ensure continuity of space based observations • Ground-based networks will provide real-time data around the globe • Applied research will be a self-sustaining discipline • International organizations will have an essential role in maintaining communication and coordination of space weather services