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Space Weather

Space Weather. Significant progress has been made on accomplishing the goals of the UK Met-SWPC Memorandum of Agreement Increase staff interactions SWPC hosted six UK Met forecasters for one week of space weather training in November, 2011, and five more in April/May, 2012

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Space Weather

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  1. Space Weather • Significant progress has been made on accomplishing the goals of the UK Met-SWPC Memorandum of Agreement • Increase staff interactions • SWPC hosted six UK Met forecasters for one week of space weather training in November, 2011, and five more in April/May, 2012 • The first UK-US Space Weather Workshop was held in Boulder, Colorado on October 11-13, 2011. A follow-on workshop was held April 28-29 in conjunction with Space Weather Week in Boulder, Colorado. • Exchange data • British Geological Survey (BGS) is providing the US with real-time magnetic field data from the Hartland magnetic observatory for NOAA’s space weather alerts and warnings. • Pursue operational and scientific collaboration • SWPC and the UK Met began daily collaborative forecaster-to-forecaster interactions on March 1, 2012 • SWPC and university partners are assisting with the transition of a critical space weather model (Enlil) to UK Met for forecasting impacts on the UK’s National Grid. • Assist UK Met in building sufficient operational capacity to serve as an operational backup • SWPC has given UK Met access to its high-reliability, secure server for delivery of space weather measurements. • Develop a physical model of the atmosphere, ionosphere, heliosphere system • Collaboration is occurring on model comparisons and common techniques such as data-assimilation schemes. • The UK joined the US in helping to establish the new WMO Space Weather Product Portal. This portal will increase the number of nations benefiting from existing products and encourage broader international participation in contributing to the global warning system

  2. Aviation Product Harmonization • World Area Forecast Centers (WAFC) in Washington and London are working closely on reducing differences in World Area Forecast System products. • As of November 2011, both WAFCs are now producing blended gridded forecasts for icing, turbulence and convection, thus eliminating inconsistent information on global products. • The two WAFCs will present papers in Lima during the September meeting of the WAFS Operations Group asking the group to accept the WAFS grids as operational forecasts suitable for flight planning • Initial verification results show that the harmonized grids are more accurate than either of the individual sets of grids • Providing consistent information on thunderstorms, turbulence, and in-flight icing aligns with our Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) principle of a common operating picture, and we thank the UK for helping bring about that consistent picture

  3. Volcanic Ash • UK/US efforts have resulted in better collaborative forecasts and decision making for volcanic ash community • NWS, UK Met, and MSC working group has instituted a collaborative analysis and forecast process and a list of priorities for improving the observations and models required to analyze and predict volcanic ash clouds. • VAAC Best Practices Meeting held February 2012 with follow-up scheduled in June • International Volcanic Ash Task Force (IVATF) 4th and final meeting in June 2012 • Remaining tasks will be moved over the IAVW Operations Group • Google Earth based Collaborative Tool to facilitate collaboration between the VAACs is being tested/demonstrated among a subset of VAACs.

  4. EUROSIP • MOU signed in July 2010 included NCEP as a EUROSIP partner (along with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Meteo-France, UK Met). • Significant progress has been made for an improved international multi-model ensemble system for better seasonal predictions. • The Climate Prediction Center (CPC), working with EUROSIP partners, has been receiving data from the European models and has produced several products for assessment. • Monthly and seasonal mean sea surface temperature, precipitation and surface temperature for North America and for global domains and a plume diagram for Nino3.4 sea surface temperature. • Future products will include probabilistic expressions, and skill maps for SST, precip and surface temp followed by new 'requests', such as wind-shear in support of the Atlantic Hurricane seasonal outlooks. • A seasonal multi-model ensemble forecast product that combines the Climate Forecast System (CFS) and EUROSIP has been in operation since December 2011.

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