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Space Weather Risk

Space Weather Risk. Risto Pirjola, Kirsti Kauristie, Hanna Lappalainen, Ari Viljanen, Antti Pulkkinen Finnish Meteorological Institute, Space Research Unit EUROEM’2004, Magdeburg, Germany, July 12-16, 2004. Contents. General about Space Weather ESA & EU GMES Programme

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Space Weather Risk

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  1. Space Weather Risk Risto Pirjola, Kirsti Kauristie, Hanna Lappalainen, Ari Viljanen, Antti Pulkkinen Finnish Meteorological Institute, Space Research Unit EUROEM’2004, Magdeburg, Germany, July 12-16, 2004

  2. Contents • General about Space Weather • ESA & EU GMES Programme • Space Weather and Risk Management • Conclusions

  3. ’Space Weather’ refers to time-variable particle and electromagnetic conditions in the near-Earth space that may cause problems to space-borne and ground-based technological systems and even endanger human health. • Solar activity is the origin of space weather.

  4. Solar-Terrestrial Research

  5. Spacecraft environment • Energetic particles and radiation: • charging • single event effects • erosion • Electromagnetic variations: • particle acceleration • induced currents • attitude control • Atmospheric drag: • changes in orbits • attitude control • space debris (Figure by SPINE)

  6. RF communication • Phenomena: solar UV and X-ray radiation, auroral particles, ionospheric irregularities • Consequences: unpredictable variations in the ionosphere, scintillation • Vulnerable technology: ground-to-ground and ground-to-satellite communication, GPS and other global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) (Figure by ISES/RWC Warsaw)

  7. Effects below the ionosphere • Aviation: • cosmic rays, solar energetic particles, ionospheric variability • aircraft crew and passengers, electronics, communication and navigation • Geomagnetically induced currents (GIC): • geomagnetic field variations, geoelectric field • electric power transmission grids, oil and gas pipelines, telecommunication cables, railway systems (Figure by FMI)

  8. Effects on power transmission systems • Saturation of transformers, which may lead to: • Production of harmonics • Relay trippings • Increased reactive power demands • Voltage fluctuations • Unbalanced network, even a collapse • Magnetic stray fluxes in transformers • Hot spots in transformers, even permanent damage

  9. Finnish high-voltage power system

  10. Measurements of GIC in the Finnish high-voltage power system

  11. Finnish natural gas pipeline

  12. Measurements of GIC in the Finnish natural gas pipeline

  13. GMES RISK MANAGEMENT • The term ”Risk Management” is determined via the Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) Programme Objective: to establish European capability for the provision and use of operational information for GMES purposes in 2008: -Initial Period 2001-2003; -Implementation Period 2004-2007 • ESA: Earth Observation, GMES Service Element (GSE) • EU: Sub-Area in the Aeronautics and Space Priority of the Sixth Framework Programme (FP6) • GMES Priority Themes contain ”Systems for Risk Management”. • Goal: risk management in areas critical for Europe (floods, forest fires, oil spills, landslides, stability of man made structures, etc.) • Relevance: citizens’ concerns; public security; etc. • Potential users: governmental (national and regional) civil protection agencies

  14. GSE Risk Services • 10 Services in the consolidation phase • 3...5 will be selected for continuation. • Most services monitor changes slower than relevant time scales in Space Weather. • An exception: RISK-EOS • prevention, early warning, crisis and post-crisis management • focus on floods and forest fires

  15. Space Weather&GMES • Space weather issues should follow the ’GMES philosophy’: Space weather is both a direct natural hazard and an indirect risk to monitoring other hazards. • Three main application areas: • satellite environment • effects on telecommunication and navigation • safety of aviation

  16. Space Weather & GMES • to identify space weather risks to near real-time GMES services • to prototype and demonstrate operational services for managing space weather risks to remote sensing systems, to telecommunication and navigation and to aviation • to envisage future space weather research areas that are most important for GMES activities • to specify areas and tasks best suited for international and European collaboration

  17. Space Weather & Risk Management • Examples of GMES Risk Management projects prone to disturbances produced by space weather RISK-EOS Space Weather DISMAR OASIS • Solving how serious consequences space weather can cause to risk management activities and determining the occurrence rates of different failures would be the first tasks in a ‘SpaceWeather/GMES’ project.

  18. Space Weather Risk Indices & Risk Management • Space Weather Risk Indices will be developed and used to describe the operational conditions of different technological systems from the space weather viewpoint. • A service prototype for operational monitoring of SW Risk Indices in the application areas: • satellite services • RF communication • aviation • Support from the following research areas: • solar data and models • radiation environment • ionospheric conditions

  19. Space Weather Risk Service DATA European Space Agency Space Weather European Network (SWENET) NOAA-SEC Replica SOHO ACE GOES Ground-Based Networks INPUT DATA SPACE WEATHER RISK SERVICE MODULES: -Earth Observation Satellites -Telecommunication & Navigation -Ground-Based Technological Systems & Aviation GMES Service Centre Risk Indices Warnings - Nowcasts - Forecasts

  20. Conclusions • Space weather with its impacts on technological systems in space and on the ground is an application of solar-terrestrial physics. • The ESA & EU GMES programme provides a good reason to sharpen European space weather activities. • Space weather is being introduced to EU FP6, and a success now may facilitate possibilities of broader space weather projects in FP7. • Future funding from EU and ESA for space weather purposes requires the definition of applications, services and customers. • Continuous basic scientific research is needed in solar-terrestial physics to develop space weather services.

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