Manajemen Keuangan Menengah

1. Manajemen Keuangan Menengah Tinjauan Teoritis Budi Purwanto

2. Tiga Pilar Ilmu Keuangan • Teori Investasi • Teori Keuangan Korporasi • Teori Distribusi

3. Balok-balok Penyusun Teori Investasi Teori Portfolio Teori Penentuan Harga Harta Modal Teori Pasar Modal Efisien Teori Penentuan Harga Opsi Teori Keagenan

4. Balok-balok Penyusun Teori Keuangan Teori Nilai Perusahaan Teori Struktur Modal Teori Keagenan Teori Pecking Order Teori Signaling

5. Teori Nilai Perusahaan • Fisher, I. 1930. The theory of Interest. The Present Value Rule. • Tujuan investasi adalah memperoleh aset yang nilainya lebih besar dari biayanya • Manajer keuangan bertindak atas kepentingan pemegang saham • Pemegang saham menginginkan memaksimumkan kemakmuran, mudah menggunakannya kapan pun dan mengambil risiko atas pola konsumsi tersebut. • Yang dapat dilakukan manajer keuangan tidak lain hanya memaksimumkan nilai tunai harta yang dikelolanya.

6. Nilai Perusahaan dan Penganggaran Modal • NPV = Σt (CFt)/(1+ko)t -Io) • Estimasi Arus Kas • Langsung • Tidak langsung • Estimasi Waktu • Estimasi Risiko  biaya modal tertimbang • Biaya utang • Biaya ekuitas

7. Estimasi Arus Kas • Langsung • Pendapatan = Penjualan – Biaya • Pendanaan = Divestasi - Investasi • Tidak Langsung • Laba Neto + Penyusutan + Perubahan Modal Kerja

8. Biaya Modal Rata-Rata Tertimbang (Weighted average cost of capital) atau disingkat WACC e d p WACC = ---------- (ke) + ---------- (kd*) + --------- (kp) e+d+p e+d+p e+d+p e = jumlah modal saham biasa d = jumlah utang p = jumlah modal saham istimewa ke= biaya modal saham biasa kd* = biaya modal utang setelah pajak kp = biaya modal saham istimewa

9. Teori Struktur Modal • Struktur modal berkaitan dengan pembelanjaan jangka panjang, yaitu perbandingan utang jangka panjang dengan modal sendiri • Teori struktur modal menjelaskan bagaimana pengaruh perubahan struktur modal terhadap nilai perusahaan, biaya modal, dan harga pasar saham

10. Teori Struktur Modal • Hipotesis Independen (Pendekatan Laba Operasi Neto) • Ko dan Po independen terhadap struktur modal • Hipotesis Dependen(Pendekatan Laba Neto) • Ko dan Po berpengaruh langsung terhadap struktur modal • Pendekatan Tradisional • Mempertimbangkan pajak, biaya keagenan dan kesulitan keuangan

11. Grafik pengaruh struktur modal terhadap biaya modal: Biaya modal (%) ke ko ki 0 B/S Berdasarkan pendekatan NI, struktur modal optimal tercapai ketika penggunaan utang maksimal.

12. Grafik pengaruh struktur modal terhadap biaya modal berdasarkan pendekatan Net Operating Income: Biaya modal (%) ke ko ki B/S 0 Berdasarkan pendekatan NOI tidak ada struktur modal optimal

13. Grafik pengaruh struktur modal terhadap biaya modal berdasarkan pendekatan tradisional: Biaya modal (%) ke ko ki 0 B/S B/S* optimal Berdasarkan pendekatan tradisional ada struktur modal optimal, yaitu pada tingkat biaya modal perusahaan minimal.

14. Modigliani – Miller Position I • Modigliani – Miller (MM) mendukung pendekatan NOI: perubahan struktur modal tidak mempengaruhi nilai perusahaan. • MM: nilai total perusahaan tidak dipengaruhi oleh struktur modal, melainkan dipengaruhi oleh investasi yang dilakukan perusahaan dan kemampuan menghasilkan laba • Asumsi yang dikemukakan MM: - Pasar modal sempurna - Expected value bagi semua investor sama. - Perusahaan menghadapi kelas risiko sama - Tidak ada pajak pendapatan perusahaan

15. Modigliani – Miller Position II • Apabila pasar tidak sempurna, maka perubahan struktur modal dapat mempengaruhi biaya modal perusahaan dan nilai perusahaan. • Salah satu indikator pasar tidak sempuran adalah adnya pajak. - Pajak pendapatan perusahaan. - Pajak pendapatan pribadi

16. Grafik pengaruh penggunaan utang terhadap tingkat pengembalian yang diharapkan pemegang saham (ke): (ke) dengan biaya kebangkrutan Tingkat pengembalian saham (ke) Premi risiko keuangan (ke) tanpa biaya kebangkrutan (ke) tanpa utang Premi risiko bisnis Risk free rate 0 B/S

17. Grafik :Pengaruh Pajak dan biaya kebangkrutan terhadap nilai perusahaan: Nilai perusahaan Pengaruh pajak terhadap nilai perusahaan Value of tax shield Biaya kebangkrutan Nilai perusahaan dengan pajak dan biaya kebangkrutan Value of firm unleverage 0 B/S B/S optimal

18. Teori Keagenan • An agency relationship exists whenever a principal hires an agent to act on their behalf • Within a corporation, agency relationships exist between: • Shareholders and managers • Shareholders and creditors

19. Shareholders versus managers • Managers are naturally inclined to act in their own best interests • But the following factors affect managerial behavior: • Managerial compensation plans • Direct intervention by shareholders • The threat of firing • The threat of takeover • As a managers’ disciplining device debt is good!

20. Shareholders versus creditors • Shareholders (through managers) could take actions to maximize stock price that are detrimental to creditors • Creditors take this into account, when lending money • Therefore, In the long run, such actions will raise the cost of debt and ultimately lower stock price

21. Signaling • Signal is a message credibly conveying information from informed to uninformed players • It is credible • if it is in the player’s interest to tell the truth • it is too costly to mimic (to lie) by others

22. Capital structure and signaling • Assumptions: • Managers have better information about a firm’s long-run value than outside investors • Managers act in the best interests of current stockholders • Managers can be expected to: • Issue stock if they think stock is overvalued • Issue debt if they think stock is undervalued • As a result, investors view a common stock offering as a negative signal -- managers think stock is overvalued

23. Capital structure and signaling (2) • Signaling theory, suggests firms should use less debt than MM suggest • This unused debt capacity helps avoid stock sales, which depress P0 because of signaling effects

24. The Pecking-Order Theory • Theory stating that firms prefer to issue debt rather than equity if internal finance is insufficient • Rule 1: Use internal financing first • Rule 2: Issue debt next, equity last • According to the pecking-order theory: • There is no target D/E ratio • Profitable firms use less debt (they use self-financing instead) • Companies like financial slack

25. Capital structure and option theory

26. Stocks and Bonds as Options • Levered Equity is a Call Option • The underlying asset comprise the assets of the firm • The strike price is the payoff of the bond • If at the maturity of debt, the value of the firm assets is greater than the face value of debt, the shareholders will pay the bondholders and “call in” the assets of the firm • Otherwise, the shareholders will declare bankruptcy and let the call expire

27. Levered Equity is a Put Option The underlying asset comprise the assets of the firm The strike price is the payoff of the bond If at maturity, the assets of the firm are less in value than the debt Shareholders have an in-the-money put They will put the firm to the bondholders If at maturity the assets are more valuable than the face value of debt The shareholders will not exercise the option (i.e. NOT declare bankruptcy) and let the put expire Stocks and Bonds as Options

28. Recall some of the agency costs of debt: they can all be seen in terms of options For example, recall the incentive shareholders in a levered firm have to take large risks They do that because high risk projects increase the value of the option Capital-Structure Policy and Options

29. Value of debt and equity as options • Example • Biotech start-up develops a new drug. They finance their investment with debt maturing in 3 years (repayment of 600 M). By that time either the drug is successful (with different degrees of success) and company sells itself to a big pharmaceutical company, or it fails. 4 possible states with equal probability State: Success Moderate Mediocre Failure Payoff: 1000 700 500 100 Debt: 600 600 500 100 Equity: 400 100 0 0

30. Value of debt and equity as options (2) Equity Debt 600 0 0 CF to firm CF to firm 600 600

31. In option valuation language: Underlying asset: the firm itself Maturity - 3 years (maturity of debt) Exercise price X = 600 M Two similar interpretations: Equity holders buy a call option from the debt-holders (a right to buy the firm from the bondholders at maturity). Debt-holders (Bondholders) effectively own the firm and sell the call option Alternatively: Equity-holders own the firm, they borrow 600 M and they buy a put option to sell the firm to the bondholders at X=600 M Value of debt and equity as options (3)

32. Kesimpulan • Manajemen keuangan didasarkan pada teori ilmiah • Manajemen keuangan bersifat teoritis dan sekaligus aplikatif • Masih banyak tindakan manajemen keuangan belum dilandasi teori yang terbukti. • Belum semua hipotesis dalam teori keuangan terbukti atau terpecahkan, dengan kata lain masih merupakan anomali.