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Softwood Timber Supply Outlook and Influences

Softwood Timber Supply Outlook and Influences. Southern Forest Products Association 2004 Annual Meeting Asheville, North Carolina September 26 - 28. Richard A. Harper, CF, RF Forest Resource Analyst USDA Forest Service, SRS, FIA Knoxville, TN 37919 RAHarper@fs.fed.us.

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Softwood Timber Supply Outlook and Influences

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  1. Softwood Timber Supply Outlook and Influences Southern Forest Products Association 2004 Annual Meeting Asheville, North Carolina September 26 - 28 Richard A. Harper, CF, RF Forest Resource Analyst USDA Forest Service, SRS, FIA Knoxville, TN 37919 RAHarper@fs.fed.us

  2. Historical look at Pulp & Paper and Sawmills Pulp & Paper Mills in the South All Primary Saw and Veneer Mills in the South 1953  51 Mills 1995  105 Mills 2004  94 Mills 470 tons/day 1,325 tons/day 1,310 tons/day 1950s – 20,000+/- Mills? 1960 – ???? Mills 12.6 Bill. BF 1970 – 4,528 Mills 16.0 Bill. BF 1980 – 3,674 Mills 19.4 Bill. BF 1990 – 2,838 Mills 24.0 Bill. BF 1999 – 2,289 Mills 26.5 Bill. BF 2001 – 2,189 Mills 25.8 Bill. BF R. Harper USDA Forest Service, FIA TPO data

  3. U.S. Annual Lumber and Wood Pulp Production, 1900-2003 U.S. Annual Lumber and Wood Pulp Production, 1900-2003 U.S. wood pulp output peaked in the mid-90s, and since 1995 an unprecedented drop in wood pulp output has occurred. 70 70 60 60 . . 50 50 Softwood Lumber Hardwood Lumber 40 40 Wood Pulp Billions of board feet - lumber Millions of tons - wood pulp 30 30 Peter J. Ince, U.S. Forest,Products Laboratory, Madison, WI 20 20 10 10 0 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Sources: Howard, J. L. Research Paper FPL-RP-595 (and earlier reports); AF&PA Monthly Statistical Summary; Wood pulp production includes estimates of dissolving pulp and wood pulp for construction paper and board

  4. Forested Regions of the World 27% 14% 14% U.S. ≈ 6% 17% 5% 23% South 1.7% R. Haynes, PNW-GTR-560, Feb. 2003 R. Harper, USDA Forest Service, FIA

  5. South’s Percent of Industrial Wood Products(All Roundwood Production) 1952 41% of U.S. 6.3% of World 1997 58% of U.S. 15.8% of World South softwood timber production grew 125% (1952 – 2001) U.S. softwood timber production grew 22% (1952 – 2001) Today 18% of World While U.S. ≈ 25% of World Industrial Wood Output is projected to increase  50% between 1995 and 2040 J. Prestemon and R. Abt Journal of Forestry, Oct/Nov 2002 R. Harper, USDA Forest Service, FIA

  6. U.S. Forestland and Ownerships Forestland in the United States Legend Forest Nonforest USDA Forest Service, North Central Research Station Forest Inventory and Analysis Forestland Ownership

  7. U.S. Mill Capacity Forest Type Map Mill Capacity (MMBF/Year) Less than 10 (221mills) Forest Type 10 – 50 (214 mills) Hardwood Softwood Non Forest 50 – 100 (135 mills) 100 – 200 (113 mills) Greater than 200 (30 mills) Softwood Mill Capacity in the United States Data - H. Spelter, M. Alderman FPL-RP-608 Forest Products Lab, Madison, WI Map - Dale Gormanson North Central Research Station St. Paul, MN

  8. U.S. Softwood Lumber Capacity Change by Region 1996-2002 Net Capacity Change 0.5% 13.5% 7.1% 60 1995 Capacity 50 2002 Capacity Capacity Loss 40 Million Cubic Meters 30 20 21% 10 9% 14% 0 North South West H. Spelter, USDA FS, Forest Products Lab, Madison, WI R. Harper, USDA Forest Service, FIA

  9. U.S. Softwood Sawtimber Volume/Acre of Timberland Softwood SawtimberVolume/Acre of Timberland None Less than 500 501 - 2,000 2,001 - 5,000 5,001 - 8,000 8,001 - 10,000 10,001 - 20,000 Greater than 20,000 Board Feet/Acre of Timberland Data source: 2002 Timberland Area, RPA dB ESRI 2002 data & maps USDA Forest Service North Central Research Station D. Gormanson, J. Vissage, R. Harper

  10. U.S. Intensity of Softwood Sawtimber Harvest - 2001 Intensity of Softwood SawlogHarvest – 2001 Board Feet/Acre of Timberland None Less than 50 50 - 125 125 - 250 250 - 500 Greater than 500 Data source: 2002 Timberland Area, RPA dB ESRI 2002 data & maps USDA Forest Service North Central Research Station D. Gormanson, J. Vissage, R. Harper

  11. U.S. Change in Softwood Sawtimber Intensity – 1996 to 2001 Board Feet/Acre of Timberland Less than 25 -24 to 25 (no change) Greater than 25 Change in Softwood SawtimberProduction Intensity – 1996 to 2001 Data source: 2002 Timberland Area, RPA dB ESRI 2002 data & maps USDA Forest Service North Central Research Station D. Gormanson, J. Vissage, R. Harper

  12. South Softwood Sawtimber Volume/Acre of Timberland Board Feet/Acre of Timberland None Less than 1000 1001 - 2000 2001 - 3000 3001 - 5000 Greater than 5000 Softwood SawtimberVolume per Acre of Timberland Data source: 2002 Timberland Area, RPA dB ESRI 2002 data & maps USDA Forest Service North Central Research Station D. Gormanson, J. Vissage, R. Harper

  13. South Intensity of Softwood Sawtimber Harvest - 2001 Board Feet/Acre of Timberland None Less than 50 50 - 100 100 - 200 Greater than 200 Intensity of Softwood SawlogHarvest – 2001 Data source: 2002 Timberland Area, RPA dB ESRI 2002 data & maps USDA Forest Service North Central Research Station D. Gormanson, J. Vissage, R. Harper

  14. South Change in Softwood Sawtimber Intensity – 1996 to 2001 Board Feet/Acre of Timberland Less than -24 -24 to 25 Greater than 25 Change in Softwood SawtimberProduction Intensity – 1996 to 2001 Data source: 2002 Timberland Area, RPA dB ESRI 2002 data & maps USDA Forest Service North Central Research Station D. Gormanson, J. Vissage, R. Harper

  15. Trends in Softwood Volume by D.B.H. Class - South Trends in Softwood Volume by D.B.H. Class - South 700 2002 600 1997 1987 500 1977 400 1953 Tons (million) 300 200 100 0 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22-28 R. Harper USDA Forest Service, FIA data D.B.H. (inches)

  16. 27% 14% 14% 17% 5% 23% Globally, industrial forest plantations have expanded to over 200 million acres by the year 2000 (according to FAO*), with most expansion in Asia and Oceania. Global Tree Plantations 250 South America North America 200 Europe Asia & Oceania 150 Africa Millions of Acres (?) 100 *The plantation acreage in Asia is questionable, but in any case there are now tens of millions of acres of industrial plantations worldwide. (?) 50 0 Peter J. Ince, U.S. Forest,Products Laboratory, Madison, WI

  17. South Tree Plantation and D.B.H Classes Yield 10 to 15 Billion BF/Year around Age 30 R. Harper, USDA Forest Service, FIADB Also, the shifts in pulpwood demand and timber harvest were accompanied by big increases in the area of managed timber plantations and intensity of management for Southern pine . . . Since 1985, an estimated 32 million acres of pines were planted in the South (Marshall Thomas, F&W Forestry) Peter J. Ince, U.S. Forest Products Laboratory, Madison, WI R. Harper, USDA Forest Service, FIA, Knoxville, TN

  18. Historical Planted Acres in the South Industry NIPF SFRA, Sept. 2002 R. Harper, USDA Forest Service, FIA

  19. Historical Planted Acres in the South Historical Planted Acres by U.S Regions 3.0 2.5 2.0 Million acres 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1982 1952 1962 1972 1992 2002 North South West Figure 12-1. Tree planting in the United States by year and region, 1952–1996. R. Haynes, PNW-GTR-560, Feb. 2003

  20. Projected Softwood Volumes by Stand Types - South 67% 55% 43% 25% 27% 18% Projected Softwood Volumes by Stand Types- South 3,000 67% 1995 2020 2,500 2040 55% 2,000 Tons (thousand) 1,500 43% 25% 1,000 27% 18% 500 0 Planted Natural Oak-pine Upland hardwood Bottomland hardwood J. Prestemon and R. Abt, SFRA, Sept. 2002

  21. Projected Softwood Volumes by Age Classes - South Projected Softwood Volumes by Age Classes - South 1,600 1995 1,400 2020 2040 1,200 1,000 Tons (thousand) 800 600 400 200 0 0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50+ Age Class (years) J. Prestemon and R. Abt, SFRA, Sept. 2002

  22. The Southern Regional Timber Supply model (SRTS) that was used in the recent Southern Forest Resource Assessment projected an increase in softwood timber inventory on private forestland in the South out to 2040. SRTS Southern Softwood Private Timber Inventory, 1995–2040 160 ≈36% increase 120 Billion cubic feet 80 40 0 1995 2010 2025 2040 89 101 111 121 Softwood Peter J. Ince U.S. Forest, Products Laboratory, Madison, WI Professor Bob Abt, NCSU; Fall 2001 See http://courses.ncsu.edu/classes/for319001/sofac/sfs_fwc_timsupply.ppt

  23. Shifts in Annual Volumes, So. Pine Plantation Growth and Total U.S. Pulpwood Receipts (all species) Shifts in Annual Volumes, So. Pine Plantation Growth and Total U.S. Pulpwood Receipts (all species) 80 In an article published in the January 2003 Forest Products Journal, Professor Siry (Univ. of GA) estimated that the average annual growth increment of Southern pine plantations will have increased by 69.2 million green tons per year, between 1987 and 2004 (at left). Meanwhile, actual data on pulpwood receipts from the Forest Resources Association show that annual U.S. pulpwood receipts (all species, roundwood and residues) have declined by -6.74 million green tons between 1987 and 2001 . . . 70 60 50 Million green tons 40 30 20 10 0 -10 Shift in Pine Plantation Growth Shift in U.S. Pulpwood Receipts Peter J. Ince U.S. Forest, Products Laboratory, Madison, WI

  24. Other Roundwood Consumption (besides pulpwood), Historical and Comparison of RPA Projections 20 20 Fuelwood & Misc. OSB 18 18 Veneer logs Sawlogs 16 16 14 14 12 12 Billion cubic feet 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 1952 1962 1970 1986 1996 2010 2020 2030 2040 Other Roundwood Consumption (besides pulpwood), Historical and Comparison of RPA Projections 1989 RPA 2001 RPA Peter J. Ince U.S. Forest, Products Laboratory, Madison, WI

  25. Population Density Impact on Forestry Population Density Map # of People Per Square Mile2000 Census # of People Per Square Mile2000 Census 0 -99 0 -99 100 - 199 100 - 199 200 - 399 200 - 399 400 - 799 400 - 799 > 800 > 800 R. Harper, USDA Forest Service, FIA Population Density Map At approximately 45 people/square mile, there is a 50:50 chance of practicing forestry. At 150 people/square mile, forestry approaches zero Virginia Study (D. Wear, et al., USDA Forest Service,1998). Compiled by R. Harper, J. McCollum USDA Forest Service, FIA

  26. Forecast Change in Forestland Forecast Change in Forestland 1992 - 2010 1992 – 2010 • Forest change > 14% loss 8 – 14% loss 0 – 8% loss Stable > 1% gain D. Wear, et.al, SFRA, Sept. 2002

  27. South-wide Pine Sawtimber Stumpage Price 1991(3rd Qtr.) to 2003(2nd Qtr.)$/ton Annual Decrease 2.7% $/Ton Annual Increase 12.1% Source: Timber Mart-South

  28. Historical National Forest Annual Timber Harvest Levels and Lumber Production Shift Historical National Forest Annual Timber Harvest Levels Lumber Production Shift 1986 to 1997 West ` 27% South & 34% R. Haynes, USDA Forest Service, PNW-GTR-560 The downward shifts in pulpwood demand and U.S. timber harvest were accompanied by a huge decline in National Forest harvest levels since the 1980s . . . Also, NFS timber inventory data were revised upward since the last timber assessment. NFS Harvest Source: Forest Service ‘Sold and Harvest’ Reports, through FY ‘02 Peter J. Ince, U.S. Forest, Products Laboratory, Madison, WI

  29. Lumber vs. Stumpage Prices 500 450 400 350 300 US$ per MBF (lumber or timber) 250 200 150 100 50 0 1Q86 1Q88 1Q90 1Q92 1Q94 1Q96 1Q98 1Q00 1Q02 1Q04 RL Composite Lumber SE Avg PST stumpage Poly. (RL Composite Lumber) Poly. (SE Avg PST stumpage) Source: Random Lengths and Timber Mart-South

  30. Lumber vs. Stumpage Prices 500 450 400 350 300 US$ per MBF (lumber or timber) 250 200 150 100 50 0 1Q86 1Q88 1Q90 1Q92 1Q94 1Q96 1Q98 1Q00 1Q02 RL Composite Lumber SC Avg PST stumpage Poly. (RL Composite Lumber) Poly. (SC Avg PST stumpage) Source: Random Lengths and Timber Mart-South

  31. Healthy Forest Restoration Act of 2003 - Impact??? 1989 RPA Projection (≈10.8 BBF*) Adds ≈445 Million CF/YR (≈2.5 BBF*) ≈700 Million CF/YR (≈4 BBF*) SW Stump $ ` ≈ 2% SW Lumber $ ` ≈ 2% SW Removal ` ≈ 1% Healthy Forest Restoration Act of 2003 - Impact??? 2.5 Zero national forest harvest Base case 2.0 Doubled NF cut interior West (Healthy Forest Initiative) 1.5 Softwood harvest (billion cubic feet) 1.0 0.5 0.0 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 Year * BBF = Billion Board Feet Figure 73–National forest softwood harvest in base, zero harvest, and doubled interior West harvest scenarios. R. Haynes, PNW-GTR-560, Feb. 2003 J. Mills, X. Zhou, PNW-GTR-568, Jan. 2003

  32. Southern ForestsThe World’s Preeminent Producer • The U.S. South is the single largest producer of industrial roundwood. • The U.S. South produces approximately 25% of the world’s wood pulp, 18% of solid wood products. • The South currently produces 58% of the total U.S. harvest. • 60% of the total U.S. forest industry capital spending is dedicated to the South.

  33. Summary Softwood resource looks abundant 27% Since 1985, an estimated 32 million acres of pines were planted in the South (Marshall Thomas, F&W Forestry) 14% 14% Yield 10 to 15 Million BF/Year at Age 30 17% 5% 23% Plantations of the World ≈ 220 million acres • Summary • The forest resource situation is constantly changing, • and change is one rationale for FIA/RPA assessments… • Big shifts recently: - Pulpwood Demand ` down • - National Forest Harvest ` down • - Pine Plantations (South) & up • Result: Big build up in standing timber inventories • (especially for NFS, Other Public, & NIPF) • Issues for future timber assessments (2010 RPA?): • Globalization, consolidation, & fiber demand • Future development of plantations • Other big changes? Peter J. Ince U.S. Forest Products Laboratory, Madison, WI

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