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Winter Gas Supply Outlook

In this briefing, Randy Friedman, Director of Gas Supply at Northwest Natural Gas, presents an in-depth outlook for the winter gas supply of 2023. Key topics include our gas supply portfolio, forward prices, and a long-term view of market trends. We analyze past peak day records and gas purchasing strategies, showcasing diverse supply sources including the Rockies and Canadian markets. While we’re well-positioned against potential bottlenecks and storage uncertainties, weather plays a critical role in demand dynamics. ###

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Winter Gas Supply Outlook

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  1. Winter Gas Supply Outlook WUTC Briefing October 10, 2007 Randy Friedman Director, Gas Supply Northwest Natural Gas

  2. Topics • Our Gas Supply Portfolio • Forward Prices • Winter Outlook • Long-Term View 2

  3. Gas Supply Portfolio “Design” 3

  4. On the “Design” Peak Day Firm Sales Record January 5, 2004 7,190,455 Therms 10ºF Warmer than Design 4

  5. How We Buy Gas Total Purchases for Calendar Year 2006 = 822 million therms 5

  6. Station 2 WCSB Sumas AECo Stanfield Rocky Mountain Basin Malin Opal San Juan Basin Topock Permian Basin 15% NW Natural 2007/08 Winter Supplies (Average Winter Day) 29% Flowing Supplies 2% Storage 27% NWN Avg. Day Winter Supply Volumes (MMBtu) British Columbia (Stn 2) 58,000 Alberta 115,000 Rockies 110,000 Jackson Prairie 10,000 Mist 107,000 Portland LNG 0 Newport LNG 0 Plymouth LNG 0 Total 400,000 27% Assumes that storage is 100% full on Nov 1. 6

  7. Looking for Patterns Source: Morgan Stanley Weekly Explorer dated 10/9/2007 7

  8. Regional Price Correlations 8

  9. Record Storage Levels…Again 9

  10. Winter Outlook • We are well-positioned • No problems lining up Canadian and Rockies supplies • Rockies production continues to grow and is bargain priced right now • Interstate Pipeline Bottlenecks will persist • Cause and effect • Bottlenecks can actually ease as it gets colder • Latest Mist Storage Expansion nearing Completion • Adds 75 MMcfd deliverability and 1.75 Bcf capacity • All for Interstate Storage Service Customers 10

  11. The Biggest Uncertainty - Weather 11

  12. Longer-Term Views • Stay Diversified • REX and other projects will increase Rockies prices • Growing LNG Imports helpful but not a panacea • Deliveries anywhere can affect PNW • Will not drive prices down but will be competitive with alternatives • The Return of Demand Growth • Current rate decreases good test of price elasticities • But will demand be “peakier”? 12

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